The Slide of the SP30 Aug 2018 17:17
The way I see it - is that we are very undervalued for the resource we have found to date, the revised MRE will no doubt reveal a great deal more and PEA will move us further along the line to proving economics, collectively these could well provide the catalyst for majors to make a move.
However NM has stated the time is not currently right to sell and its my opinion he would only consider to sell at a price much higher than can be achieved currently (if not he would have no doubt alrready sold to one of the 12 suitors) - now for one of those suitors to pay significantly more they need the revised MRE and PEA (they are not going to punt with a billion plus pounds), Im quite sure however the majors will be savvy enough to have made their own calculations and will surely be able to calculate a value (or close enough) that the revised MRE and PEA will bring about, recent RNS drilling results will have helped form a much clearer picture of the current scenario - so with that in mind bids may well come through prior to the release of MRE and PEA - with a major wanting to steal a mark on the others.
NM will be aware of this, so how does he extract maximum value to fend off the bid, he looks for a route to fund the go it alone strategy (whether he would go it alone or if its just to stengthen his hand is debatable) - the strategy could be the 'go for gold' strategy which is begining to be marketed - low cost easier route to revenues to bootstrap costs for Alpala - Bianca Nieves could provide this gold supply - so if that comes up trumps it provides an alternative revenue stream which then means the majors have to pay more if they want in.
The slide in the SP may well continue until how this is going to play out is clearer - but the end game and final value extracted from a sale will not be determined by current SP or indeed a potential lower future SP if slide continues - the final sale price is going to be determined by resource size and the potential auction scenario of who wants it more.
For now its painful for many - a 12 Mth + SP decline is not easy to take - knowing it could well get worse before thingfs become clearer is not easy to take - options are sell and forgot about it - sell and look for a lower entry to get back in - buy more - or sit tight and wait it out. Everyone needs to make their own investment decisions on this, there are no gaurantees, investing in mining explorers is high risk.......with the potential for high reward, but rarely is the money made without mental and emotional challenge.
GLA