Member Info for dflynch

I’m familiar with and agree that “…there are lies, damn lies and statistics.”

Inconsistencies in the data used has to always be accepted. The sources, basis, level of detail, and data categorisations together with the problems of ensuring complete, accurate and timely data abound when attempting any analysis to identify problems. The Australian data is from “The Age” newspaper – it makes interesting reading and the detail puts the CV19 issue there into a more meaningful and realistic perspective.

You will, of course, appreciate that I did not set out to produce a comprehensive comparative analysis, but sought to make the general point that governments have lost focus on identifying the “real” problem in their present attempts to produce successful pandemic strategies. Constant re-evaluation is key to any decision process!

Does the Swedish government always get its strategies wrong? That regarding mining and the treatment of the Swedish owners of Beowulf seems to be clearly mistaken! However, in dealing with CV19 this might not be the case.

Sweden, and the UK, have followed different strategies in dealing with the issue, albeit the Swedes appear to have followed a path similar to the UK’s 2011 strategy, which was extant up until March of this year.

Sweden has reported 80,422 cases of infection and 5,743 deaths which the authorities have attributed to CV19. A mortality rate of 0.055% (ie. 55 deaths / 100,000 of population)

The UK has reported 256,428 cases and 41,082 deaths attributable to CV19. A mortality rate of 0.061% (ie. 61 deaths / 100,000 of population)

Sweden has a population of c10.5 million and the UK a population of c66.75 million. Therefore, it is reasonable to state that the UK population is c6.35 times that of Sweden.

On a population basis the Swedish infection figures become a UK equivalent of 510,679 (actual cases x 6.35) and UK equivalent deaths of 36,468.

This would seem to indicate that Sweden has had twice the infection rate of the UK but a lower number of deaths within that increased level of infection. This is borne out by the Swedish mortality rate of 0.055% compared with the UK 0.061%.

Because of the different national strategies followed, Sweden’s economy and general health are now in a far-far better condition that that of the UK. So why is the HIGNFY team at no 10 still continuing with the dystopian strategy that is wrecking the UK economy and the general wellbeing of the UK populous? Tragic as it may be to some, can 6 extra deaths per 100,000 of population justify the current measures?

Interestingly it would appear that dysfunctional government is not limited to the UK. The State of Victoria in Australia, where a quarter of Australians reside, would seem to have the lead at the moment - with a similar approach to restricting normal life.

Australia has a population of c25 million of which c4.25 million have been tested. Of these 17,920 people were found to be infected (0.4% of those tested). Sadly 208 of those infected died (1.16% of those who tested positive). Overall, the Australian CV19 mortality rate is 0.00083% (ie less than 1 death / 100.000 of population)!

Generally, is it not about time that the governments throughout the World stopped panicking, and introduce strategies that will re-rail the World’s economy, reinstate sanity and remove the un-necessary fear that they have created!

In the case of Sweden, it’s favourable situation must now present an opportunity to follow a clear strategy that capitalises on its mineral resources for the benefit of Swedes, and particularly the Swedish owners of Beowulf.

I have not done a comprehensive comparative analysis, but sought to make the general point that the government has lost focus on identifying the “real” problem in its present attempt to produce a successful pandemic strategy. Constant re-evaluation is key to any decision process!

The data used was obtained from generally reliable internet sources. The Australian data is from “The Age” newspaper.
Inconsistencies in the data used has to always be accepted. The sources, basis, level of detail, and data categorisations together with the problems of ensuring complete, accurate and timely data abound when attempting any analysis to identify problems.

Rosewall, thank you for your contribution to the debate - Que sera, sera. I do not wish to engage in further correspondence on the matter, so I trust that you will now read the original comment again and realise that you have no grounds, whatsoever, to make abusive personal remarks about contributors!

Profits to be made – Yes but businesses and the stock market needs to be sure that current UK strategies are correct and beneficial to the UK!

Sweden and the UK have followed different strategies in dealing with CV19, albeit the Swedes appear to have followed a path similar to the UK’s 2011 strategy, which was extant up until March of this year.

Sweden has reported 80,422 cases of infection and 5,743 deaths which the authorities have attributed to CV19. A mortality rate of 0.055% (ie. 55 deaths / 100,000 of population)

The UK has reported 256,428 cases and 41,082 deaths attributable to CV19. A mortality rate of 0.061% (ie. 61 deaths / 100,000 of population)

Sweden has a population of c10.5 million and the UK a population of c66.75 million. Therefore, it is reasonable to state that the UK population is c6.35 times that of Sweden.

On a population basis the Swedish infection figures become a UK equivalent of 510,679 (actual cases x 6.35) and UK equivalent deaths of 36,468.

This would seem to indicate that Sweden has had twice the infection rate of the UK but a lower number of deaths within that increased level of infection. This is borne out by the Swedish mortality rate of 0.055% compared with the UK 0.061%.

Because of the different national strategies followed, Sweden’s economy and general health are now in a far-far better condition that that of the UK. So why is the HIGNFY team at no 10 still continuing with the dystopian strategy that is wrecking the UK economy and the general wellbeing of the UK populous? Tragic as it may be to some, can 6 extra deaths per 100,000 of population justify the current measures?

Interestingly it would appear that dysfunctional government is not limited to the UK. The State of Victoria in Australia, where a quarter of Australians reside, would seem to have the lead at the moment - with a similar approach to restricting normal life.

Australia has a population of c25 million of which c4.25 million have been tested. Of these 17,920 people were found to be infected (0.4% of those tested). Sadly 208 of those infected died (1.16% of those who tested positive). Overall, the Australian CV19 mortality rate is 0.00083% (ie less than 1 death / 100.000 of population)!

Is it not about time that the governments throughout the World stopped panicking, and introduce policies that will re-rail the World’s economy, reinstate sanity and remove the un-necessary fear that they have created!

Stock markets and businesses will react positively to a rethink on dealing with CV19 – of that I am confident – the only problem is the required leadership is presently missing!

Lloyds - the economy and the CV19 Conundrum

Sweden and the UK have followed different strategies in dealing with CV19, albeit the Swedes appear to have followed a path similar to the UK’s 2011 strategy, which was extant up until March of this year.

Sweden has reported 80,422 cases of infection and 5,743 deaths which the authorities have attributed to CV19. A mortality rate of 0.055% (ie. 55 deaths / 100,000 of population)

The UK has reported 256,428 cases and 41,082 deaths attributable to CV19. A mortality rate of 0.061% (ie. 61 deaths / 100,000 of population)

Sweden has a population of c10.5 million and the UK a population of c66.75 million. Therefore, it is reasonable to state that the UK population is c6.35 times that of Sweden.

On a population basis the Swedish infection figures become a UK equivalent of 510,679 (actual cases x 6.35) and UK equivalent deaths of 36,468.

This would seem to indicate that Sweden has had twice the infection rate of the UK but a lower number of deaths within that increased level of infection. This is borne out by the Swedish mortality rate of 0.055% compared with the UK 0.061%.

Because of the different national strategies followed, Sweden’s economy and general health are now in a far-far better condition that that of the UK. So why is the HIGNFY team at no 10 still continuing with the dystopian strategy that is wrecking the UK economy and the general wellbeing of the UK populous? Tragic as it may be to some, can 6 extra deaths per 100,000 of population justify the current measures?

Interestingly it would appear that dysfunctional government is not limited to the UK. The State of Victoria in Australia, where a quarter of Australians reside, would seem to have the lead at the moment - with a similar approach to restricting normal life.

Australia has a population of c25 million of which c4.25 million have been tested. Of these 17,920 people were found to be infected (0.4% of those tested). Sadly 208 of those infected died (1.16% of those who tested positive). Overall, the Australian CV19 mortality rate is 0.00083% (ie less than 1 death / 100.000 of population)!

Is it not about time that the governments throughout the World stopped panicking, and introduce policies that will re-rail the World’s economy, reinstate sanity and remove the un-necessary fear that they have created!

Stock markets will react positively to a rethink on dealing with CV19 – of that I am confident – the only problem is the required leadership is presently missing!

"There can never be more selling than buying.

By definition, every trade has a buyer and a seller. The market is nothing more than an exchange.

The market does not hold any shares of its own, or any money of its own. It is just a place (a marketplace) where buyers and sellers can meet in order to conduct trades."

Theoretically correct but, the seller of 50,000 shares does not have to wait for a willing purchaser of 50,000 shares before the transaction can be completed. Hence your statements do not take into account settlement periods for delivery or consequent “stock” held by the MMs!

Agreed.

Recently calculated average SP for their 16% investment in HUR is c11p.

They should "break-even" shortly!

I do not believe that the HUR CB can be subjected to the arbitrage opportunities dependent upon a variation in the underlying SP. This is because the share issue option is the prerogative of the Issuer and not the Holder. In the case of the HUR CB this will occur at maturity.

If the prerogative lay with the Holder then arbitrage opportunities could occur but “The convertible arbitrage strategy is not a commonly-used strategy in the present-day world, where algorithmic and program trading has proliferated to prevent such arbitrage opportunities.”

However, that the HUR CB can be traded on different exchanges, does give the opportunity for exchange rate arbitrage trades in the CB price quoted on those exchanges. These trades would not affect, or be effected by, the underlying SP.

Happy to be corrected – and educated!

The coronavirus pandemic will lead to lasting changes in people’s behaviour, Reckitt Benckiser said yesterday after revealing that a surge in demand for Dettol and Lysol disinfectants had helped to drive an increase in its sales.

The FTSE 100 consumer goods group said that overall like-for-like sales had risen by 11.9 per cent to £6.9 billion in the six months to the end of June as shoppers increased purchases of hygiene products.

What's good for Reckitt Benckiser must also be good for Byotrol!

Every purchase and refusal to sell at a low SP defeats the objectives of the shorters.

They will attempt to create a sham that the SP is falling, but providing that current holders remain firm, and new investors come in, the shorters tactics will be defeated - and go elsewhere, if they still have funds!

Hold firm - be patient!

“plus the current CPR, though likely to be downgraded,

I don’t think HUR said it was LIKELY to be downgraded, just that it is possible”

Appropriately non-committal and a safeguard against possible future allegations, when the new CPR is released, that the BOD had mis-led investors.

I am currently invested in HUR and BYOT and today both have similar SP’s

In my opinion the prospects for both are excellent.

But which will eventually have the higher SP?

I now live in interesting times!

I am currently invested in BYOT and HUR and today both have similar SP’s

In my opinion the prospects for both are excellent.

But which will eventually have the higher SP?

I now live in interesting times!

From the Times - today

Just how safe are the ingredients in hand sanitiser?

Carry your own hand gel rather than using free bottles in shops and steer clear of fragrance.

Last week the US Food and Drug Administration found 34 brands of hand sanitiser on sale that contained methanol, a type of alcohol that not only leads to blindness when swallowed, but can be dangerous merely when rubbed into your hands.

The US watchdog said that there had been hospital admissions and deaths caused by the contaminated hand sanitisers.

Thank goodness for Byotrol! - Available in the USA and cleared by the FDA!

"So, another question.....who or what is holding the sp down?"

This is a bit far-fetched but!

There are 1992 million shares on the Company register.

The Company Registrar will have details of the registered holders of these shares – but the Register will be dynamic and inaccurate due to trading activity. Hopefully the Registrar could reconcile the shareholdings on the Register to the number of shares issued – 1,992 million – but I am uncertain that they do!

The accumulated number of shares traded each day can be calculated, but in a volatile situation with the same physical shares traded throughout the day many times, how many shares do actually move between owners?

It is theoretically possible to generate volatility with large, but constant, amounts of shares being traded (churned) that gives an artificial illusion of volatility and price trends to the market. Traders and MM could take advantage of such a situation. It would be difficult to track the occurrence of this churning - unless market monitoring software was used for over-sight of the market, to identify ultimate share owners at the end of a trade, and the trading day.

Such software, I believe, is used on the main-market but I am uncertain as to the situation regarding AIM.

Perhaps HUR being listed on the main-market might be a solution!

As I said at the beginning ”a bit far-fetched” but we live in strange times!

"So, another question.....who or what is holding the sp down?"

Probably a software error!

Or, Elsie the tea-lady is working from home!

Comment at 14:10

The CB are not an issue. Holders are in the fortunate position of getting their money back at maturity at worse!

Both CB holders and ordainary shareholders will benefit from an increasing SP

Converting the CB’s at maturity would require the issue of approx. 450 million shares.

Currently 1992 million shares are issued so the number of shares would increase by about a quarter.

If the SP is above 52 cents then expect the conversion to shares.
If the SP is below 52 cents then expect a cash requirement for $230 million to be available at maturity.

Have I missed something?

Thank you for the response.

I had already considered that approach but given the level of contributions on this BB I did not wish to engage in nugatory effort if the information was already available. It would appear that is not the case.

Therefore, my calculation results in c11p for Kerogen and c18p for Crystal Amber.

Content to be challenged on these figures if anyone thinks they are way-out.

Does anyone know the average SP paid by Kerogen Investments No. 18 Limited for their 318,531,211 shares resulting in a 15.99% share of the company.

Similarly the average SP paid by Crystal Amber Fund Limited for their 132,700,524 shares and 6.66% share in HUR

Many thanks if this information can be provided.