Member Info for devonplay

" I thought the final buy of the day may have tipped the scales??"
Nope. It's been in this trading range for ever, the spread has reduce. It's been more in the range of 8%, so it's an expensive beastie to trade.
It's a slow burner stock. Good few years are required for turn arounds, and as I've said several times before, even he company say's it's early days.
Dig in for the long term and expect a bumpy ride.

3 trades and no movement in the price.

It might be better to put that certificate back in the draw and make a note to check in March. This has gone into hibernation for the winter.

I doubt doubt even MA will ride to the rescue.

Hi CarpeDiem. I think that's a very reasonable stance. I also think there's a decent buisness in there, but the levels of growth our mutual friend is suggesting, I just don't see happening.
It could be a nice private cash generative business. That's a risk in it's own right.
They may or not service the debt reduction as a priority, afterall they've got a foot in both camps. That's rather their game plan and I'm sure we can assume they have a decent idea of what they are looking to achieve....if I was being ultra conservative Id like to see what the agreement is. On a quick look I couldn't find anything, but that doesn't mean it's not there somewhere.
I still think it's a thing private shareholders should consider.
This is a company with 2 very large holding, little liquidity and owners that are used to dealing with complex difficult turn-arounds. That is in my opinion a double edged sword.
What I'm certainly confident about is it's not a get rich quick, simple, mega-growth businss where there is an easy route (and exit) over the next 3 years. £15-16m by the mid-20's I think is very possible. At what margin and where the debt is by then is the great unknown. £30m in 3 years I feel is difficult to believe.

"1856 is at least a mature business"
And that's my point. Mature businesses don't grow at the rates you are "assuming".
I guess that means you've made those figures up and company isn't forecasting them....

"If somehow this company could be debt free by 2023 with turnover of £30m+ then I cannot see how the share price could be anywhere near the current low levels."
BUT, and it's a big one, I'm working on facts, your working on a guess where the turnover will be in just over 3 years.
I've asked you again, could you share the companies forecast for 2023 if you have it. I've not been able to find that figure expect form you. That's x3 growth from a mature buisness. Many start-up would like that speed of growth.
Has the company forecast that level of growth. The only thing I found is that statement that it's early days.

"I also see this a steady growth stock"

I'd be happy to take the 5% on th debt and except the possible equity return. It's almost like convetable if the business doesn't perform. Except, I've never been able find the T&C's for debt, so I guess we don't really know. How like death spiral finance it is or isn't. Anyone have a link?

"investment guarantees"
But you appear unwilling to recognise that ONLY ONE PARTY here has "investment guarantees"
The minority shareholders have swapped one liability for another. That's your major smoking gun risk ,the shareprice is arbitary for them .They are already getting a return, where as it takes a strong rally to lift this 2%...

"Am increasing my expectations"

You said that about Debenhams. Major rally going on, except for here. LOL

And there she goes! We've got that 3rd trade.
Luckily, we've got 30% liquidity.

We've got 2 trades, will there be a surge and we hit 3?

I crossed 10% gain this morning, dropped back since. I run a portfolio of 53 equity positions and 50 bonds.
The bonds have had a slightly worse day LOL but if they all mature then I'm on a 13% TYM anyway.
Interesting day. I'm not making cash. This might run longer.

See of blue on my screen, except.....

"Phoenix's behaviour on Hornby demonstrates"
Lets hope that isn't the case, Horby hasn't made a profit in years. I think it made a small loss in '15, ever since it's lost money.
Let's be reasonable and say 3 and a bit rather than 4 year. It's going to require a sustained high level of growth to reach your £30m in just over 3 years.
The sort of growth speeds that aren't what you'd expect from a mature business that's changed hands almost countless times over the last few decades.
When they have reached high levels of turnover it's been in the past at the cost of profit.
So lets imagine that's going to be the same this time. In 2015 turnover was 56m and profits 3m, on that basis you'd be eroding that debt at a much slower rate than your assumptions.
I'd find that less than comforting.
They win both ways, the share price matters less to Pheonix, they even say that in their literature, where's you can only win (or loose) from it. They can also profit from the debt.
Their position is hedged against a slower recovery. That's why they hold the mix of equity and debt.
It's true to say losses are slowing, but so has turnover decreased, in fact the only thing that's growing has been the debt. Their hedge. So Shareholders have seen no material increase since collapse in 2015, in fact the equity price has slowly declined and now appears quagmired. Where as, as you point out, the debt holders are seeing their toggle increase by 5% per anum.
Any falter in the growth, given the level of debt (as you point out 1:1 on turnover) (and loss making) suggests the caution the share price indicates is warranted.
As I've said, I dont believe Pheonix are in a rush, they are getting more of the business each year just from the debt, hence I see no reason to be in a hurry to buy. It's a hold as best. I reiterate, these things take years to turn around and there's going to be plenty of opporunity to potentially pick them up at a lower price.

"I'm expecting the usual 3 small trades here. Business as usual."
I think the debt plays a big part in it. Until you get a sense of how the redemption is going to happen in 2023 (that's from memory) it's a BIG question mark. I believe the interest is being rolled over and added to the capital, so it just gets bigger.
I couldn't find the detail of the debt, so my concern would be what happens if it becomes obvious they aren't going to be abe to pay it pay anytime soon. They've got less tan 3 years and it will keep growing if they can't make payments.
As the debt is owned by the majority shareholder that's a potential big red flag.
And we know what happens when you can't satisfy a deby call don't we.
I may be wrong on that, it's not one I'm looking at in any depth, but I'd like to hear fron anyone if I've got the principal of that wrong.

It's looking like the interest payments on the bonds will come in January.
Bit of time to go, but it feels like it's going to happen.

"I'm expecting the usual 3 small trades here. Business as usual."
Bang on the money: just 3 again. LOL

I've held/do hold in paper form ( miners, physical ETF's) and bars/coins.
It does have a place in a portfolio, but I'm not rushing to buy at the moment. If your reason is the UK economy, rather than a global turn down, then I'd increase my exposure to USA assets.
Last time I bought gold ETF's it was at c770 and I sold out just under 1200 (upper 1100's)
It felt like there were greater global risks at the time. Hence, I'm not rushing now.
I do from time to time buy silver "rounds"for the ultimate bad times. They are more convenient than bars which explains why they were the manin currency for much of recent human history, but it's just side money. Nothing serious.
There's plenty of alternatives to gold; diamonds, crypto and just keeping cash in a different country. All of them are easier now than they used to be. There's even a physical gold, block chain backed cryptocurrency or maybe just hold currency under your mattress. But maybe not Sterling...

"Presumably any Tory victory tomorrow will lead to the shares rising decently "
I'm expecting the usual 3 small trades here. Business as usual. AA were up 16% today. I own the bonds, they were up 5% on the day with an 11% yield. Slightly greater than spread if you buy SGI :)
Of course no yield to be found here. Pundits are talking up a 10% gain if Bojo gets over a 30 seat majority. I'm not holding out much hope for that rise on this one.

Correction. They own nearly 60% of the business.
Lombard Odier own almost 8%.
As far any other "institutional investor " according the Corporate web site, 0 have more 3%, probably because there isn't enough liquidity to offer a big enough deployment of funds. Hence that profit destroying spread.

"it looks like an institutional investor has taken a small position"
So we are in agreement that's just a guess. There's no evidence.
"they would normally be an obvious takeover target were it not for their debt."
And that's debt owed to the major shareholder, so they aren't an obvious take over target now. So it looks like we are in agreement again.
"Phoenix's shareholding is only then a barrier to a bidder"
Unless I've missed something, those shares aren't being sold. They still own nearly 65% of the business and control the (mountain) of debt (in relation to the market cap.)
" That is why institutional investors may already be getting back in."
But we don't have evidence of that do we. The level of debt and controlling shareholder would be an issue for some, possibly for many of them. So that's just specualtion again.
I think it has some merits as business, even more so as a private business, but you've been saying it's just round the corner for what now? a couple of years?
"the debt must also start rapidly falling away."
I'm not going to bother checking this, but I believe the last report indicated it had grown and they were still loss making.
I know after your big loss on Debenhams you want this to come good, I guess you are down, but turn-arounds take time and patience.
Facts, not wishful thinking, will recoupe your losses.
I still hold the idea, considered or not, that when the debt comes due, from memory in 2023, we'll know if the bathers are wearing costumes or not. No rush, unless you are in a rush to exit your holding....
Time, patiences and facts.
On the " £3m + per year", as far as I can remember the company suggested in it's last report "they are only at the early stages", so if I've missed something, I'd appreciate you sharing where they've forecast £3m + anytime soon. I'd like to see that, even better of they've forecast it.