Member Info for devonplay

I'm suprised not comments today?
25%. Nice early Chrimbo present.

Well, looks as if the tsunami of buyers has abated.
If you'd have bought yesterday on the expectation, now you'll only be 10% down.
Wake me up when it gets exciting.

I'm still in it. It'll be interesting to see what the Christmas figures are like, what the next report from the administrator says and if the next interest payment is made January. I think you can be confident the shareprice isn't going to be 10p any time soon..

"The industrial and logistics overweight remains a key theme in the portfolio. Not only did we experience strong organic growth from all our companies (particularly those with development opportunities) but we benefited from corporate activity as well. In May, Londonmetric announced the agreed takeover of A&J Mucklow, the specialist Midlands industrial owner and developer. The Trust owned 5% of Mucklow. We opted for shares (rather than cash) in Londonmetric as we are firm advocates of the management team and the opportunities afforded in the merged vehicle"

Here's the big day. Still loss makin, some progress..

What's the market going to make of these? I'll be on the sidelines.

I found this press release from LondomMetric ( I also hold them since IPO) welcome.
Not only the purchase of a petrol station with Co-op attatched, but the roadside opportunity.
https://www.londonmetric.com/~/media/Files/L/LondonMetric/press-releases/2019/LMP_Roadside%20Long%20Income%20Acquisitions_press%20release.pdf

Good call going on. Always worthing catching if you can.

For those who haven't see the presentation:
http://www.srei.co.uk/sites/default/files/2019-11/sreit-interim-results-presentation-26-11-2019-v2.pdf

Yes, and have been in this one for several years.

"I don't think this is one for Widows and Orphans."
Couldn't agree more. It's a high risk turn around. I don't diagree with your view about firesale. I've thought similar myself.
It's a perfect vehicle for a private company, the debt in this instance could easily be changed for unlisted equity.
Just because someone paid more for the equity than it's worth today is an indication of the future is a good way to burn your money. I see no need to rush. There's too much risk and there's a large debt hangover that's a good hedge for the major. I'd like to see the price rally, but I try not to convince myself when it's not justified. There's still a long way to go. 2023 will come quicker than we expect.

"Who knows Devon, we might even see you top up your holding post those results?"
It's unlikely, but who knows. Given that I have big concerns over the strangle hold one set of investors have over the business I doubt it. They can benefit in 2 ways with a level of security. I'm presuming that debt is secured. I couldn't find any detail on it. Where as I would only be able to participate in a prise rise and that would have to be sunstantail. As unless that spread narrows, I'd hand 13% plus dealing costs back. That's the reality. I'm more likely to sell into a strong rally.
I'm more likely to read the upcoming report and then put them mentally back into the draw until 2023.

"They now have 62 staff"
The last report say:
"at 31 March 2019 stood at 74 (2018: 93). Fortunately, we have been able to retain the majority of specialists in Stanley Gibbons and Baldwins enabling us to continue to provide the first-class service to our clients which they expect. We will look to strengthen these teams as trading improves."
I thought a main objective was "Become THE place to work in the philatelic and numismatic world. "
and they recognised "this is a journey which is not completed overnight but is vitally important to building a robust and successful business." That's in connection with their previously "a low base in terms of the level of focus and importance which was placed on staff ". Have more staff been leaving?
One of the facts about stamp collecting is the number of collectors has declined significantly over the last century, latest figures suggest they amount to 60,000,000 globaly, but are served by 10,000's of dealers. Source Wikipedia:
"Stamp collecting is a less popular hobby in the early 21st century than it was a hundred years ago. In 2013, the Wall Street Journal estimated the global number of stamp collectors was around 60 million. Tens of thousands of stamp dealers supply them with stamps along with stamp albums, catalogues and other publications. There are also thousands of stamp (philatelic) clubs and organizations that provide them with the history and other aspects of stamps. Today, though the number of collectors is somewhat less, stamp collecting is still one of the world's most popular indoor hobbies."
"Tens of thousands of stamp dealers" that's a lot!

" I must agree especially with one of your comments. It is when they start paying down the debt that the market cap is really going to pop"
I didn't say that LOL I said they have an increasing amount of debt and the major shareholder, who's also the major creditor, doesn't care about the share price on a day to day basis. In fact, I actually said the small free float could keep a lid on the shareprice. At the moment the debt is increasing and will increase by 5% until redemption in 2023, UNLESS they start making payments. Which will be difficult given they are still loss making. Infact, I actually posed the question, given they are getting a return off the debt, do they need to be concerned about the share price at all? Pheonix would appear to be secured aganst the shareprice by that debt. It's a growing hedge against any future under performance of the equity. That's why it's a very high risk turn around position. If you recognise it.
"they are still growing the sales turnover" is that true?
The last set of reports say the opposite. From the Group Annual Report and Financial Statements for the year ended 31 March 2019. RNS 19 September 2019
Group turnover from continuing operations (£m)
31 March 2019 Year ended 31 March 2018
11.7 13.4
Have I missed an update?

I seem to remember them (Phoenix Fund ) saying they aren't interested in the day to day moves of share prices LOL
Like Debenhams it's a highly sophisticated turn around, they've secured themselves to some extent with that loan (which I'm presuming is secured on the stock).
It's one that could draw in pi's believing "it looks cheap", but ask yourself this..where's your security. Will you have claim on any assets if they default?

"I would guess they are looking for the shares to rise to at least 12p upwards by 2023."
or maybe pay back the debt that's due then....
From the Interims:
"The Facility A loan outstanding at 31 March 2019 of £10.5m is due to Phoenix S. G. Limited, the controlling party of the Group. Interest on the loan is 5% per annum added to the loan. The loan is due for repayment in March 2023, provided there is no event of default in the meantime."
So not only do you have a contolling shareholder, with 60% of the business, they are all so the debt holder.
Total borrowing was up at the Interim point:
Total borrowings (£m)
11.5 v 10.0 and unless they've paid it back since then will by default grow by 5% per anum. I haven't checked, but I'm sure it will be secured against the stock.
I wonder if they really need the share price to raise, afterall, there's already 5% each year coming in?
I still like the business, I'm just not sure why it's not taken private. Their style is to invest in distressed equity of listed companies, I guess you'd need to look at their historical exits to work out why. They don't publish their portfolio, unless you invest £100k, so it would merit more research than I'm willing to do with this one. I suspect as their time line is long, at least 5 years, we might find out in 2023.

We both agree time will tell. I just suspect it will take longer than you hope and in the meantime the market has more dynamic opportunities.
I hope it works out for you and you make your Debenhams losses back. You sound less confident this time, that's a good thing.
I don't share your view that this business is the same as Games Worshop.
What Pheonix paid for it isn't relevant, but if it gives you confidence so be it. They specialise in high risk/deep value propositions, so will expect a high failure rate. I hope you are similarly prepared.

"Devon, all your comments are fair points" they usually are.
I don't agree that all the liabilities are gone, there's a very restricted free float in the equity of this company and that's a substantial liabilty for smaller shareholder. They can pretty much do whatever they like, whenever they want within the restrictions of the Companies Act. You've experienced that before haven't you. Hence my comments about listing.
You could hope the small float magnifies the price action, but it can also restrict it. As a consquence trade might improve, but it doesn't guarantee a move in the shareprice. So you're forecast of 5.5 within a few months might fall on stoney ground.
It's been a distressed company that's going through recovery, that's a long and difficult process, so there's no need to rush.
Pheonix are specialist in recovery and distressed plays. That should tell you a lot. It's too early to tell if it's a lousy invesment or not. It's still very early days. That's my point. I doubt if all the small holders have gone, I haven't, but if there is quick move in the share price we might also offer a top on the action. It's an opportunity to unload for us as much as any other shareholders. I think I've said this before, but it's one to put in the bottom draw and check every few years or so. If it was me, I'd take it private and run it for cash over the long term. That doesn't imply a premium when you've already got almost all the voters you'd need to do so. There's risks here beyond trade.

"Looks to me like a classic"
Distressed company that might take years to recover. There's a U shape in there, but it's just as likely a U bend.
With spread of 13% and the FX costs, it would be surprising if many will look at it from overseas.
It's not like you can easily build up a decent position. In this one £12k is the largest I've seen in years...most are in 00's.
Try buying a big chunk and I suspect you'll see the price move against you quickly. That might improve the spread, but getting out might cost you 13% plus trading costs and FX costs.
I'm waiting on the next report. I'm suprised they've kept the company listed if I'm honest. Given the turn over is so small and it's loss making and not in a hyper growth sector, there's a bit chunk of cost associated with being listed, even on AIM.
It used to be, excluding "oilers" a market value of £50,000,000 was right for AIM, this one misses that by a country mile, and the costs associated for small companies, below £50mil, just weren't worth it.

"the average purchase volume) is also quite small."
Think a few hundred pounds (sterling), my broker doesn't even indicate a normanl trade sized. I suspect amongst the daily handful of trades, a number of them are very small automated trades - in 10's of £'s.
I imagine the Franfurt holding will get listed on the UK registar as an overseas holder of the ordinary stock. It's not some kind of ADR's, but actually the stock you' be buying.

https://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/equity/stanley-gibbons-grp-ltd-the
There it is. It's listing is in the UK, but is available in continous auction on Frankfurt. I would think the liquidity is low in Frankurst. It's hardly great in the UK. Just a few trades per day and the company is controlled by 2 major shareholders that from memory control almost 70% of the stock. The spread here is almost 13%, so on top of any currency costs, you'd have to be confident of a mjor move ( I'm NOT), otherwise spred and FX might kill any trading profit. Hope that helps. Usual market in the UK (the average purchase volume) is also quite small.