RE: Broker reccomendation5 May 2026 10:20
Investing.com -- Jefferies downgraded Aviva and Legal & General on Sunday, taking a more cautious stance on two of the U.K.’s largest listed insurers amid concerns over capital returns and earnings growth.
The broker cut Aviva to Hold from Buy, while raising its price target to 637 pence from 560 pence, while Legal & General was moved from Hold to Underperform and its target price to 185 from 230 pence.
On Aviva, Jefferies analysts said the stock’s rating now “fairly reflects” its transformed business profile following the acquisition of Direct Line, with management’s guidance through 2028 already embedded in consensus estimates.
They see the risk/reward as balanced, arguing that while upside is limited, an all-in capital return yield of around 9% per year, combining dividends and buybacks, provides a floor of support, particularly for U.K. income investors.
Cumulative total yield over 2026-28 is seen at around 27%, on par with Legal & General but backed by stronger solvency and lower debt leverage.
Jefferies flagged UK general insurance and pension risk transfer as the key risks for Aviva. With UK general insurance now accounting for nearly half of group earnings following the Direct Line acquisition, the bank cited execution risk around the integration and pricing pressure in commercial lines.
The broker’s call on Legal & General was more bearish. Analysts said that the insurer’s income story “is deteriorating,” with net surplus generation — its preferred free cash flow proxy — expected to stay roughly flat at around £1.2 billion through 2028, barely covering the annual dividend cost.
"Solvency surplus generation is fully consumed by dividends, capital optionality is effectively zero, and returns rely increasingly on contingent management actions," they wrote.
A key point of difference with consensus is Jefferies’ more cautious view on management actions, which it models at just under £400 million per year against a market assumption of around £500 million.
The firm also forecasts no share buybacks through 2028, while consensus still prices in £150-200 million annually. With solvency drifting lower and debt leverage above 30%, Jefferies said the equity risk premium looked too low.
"With credible income alternatives available elsewhere in the sector, this increases the risk of investor rotation away from the stock," the analysts said.