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I have been trying to reasonably value the company, as I am sure most here, and I would be really happy for anyone to comment on my calcs for discrepancies.
To note I have left off the pellet premium which is huge, currently standing at $45, and makes an incredible difference to EBITDA when added. However I have gone through company accounts and it does not appear to be reflected in the company sales prices. Ferrexpo have some reports on Premium pellet prices, & it seems the premium spot price to China runs at on average a $20 discount.
H1,20 revenue $776M, Fe 65 price $105.90/t,
Average C1 cash cost (US$/t) $40.9/t.
Generated Underlying EBITDA $352M
Jan 21 Fe pellet price $185/t,
an uplift from $65/t achieved to $144/t,
Based on multiple of 144/65 *$352M
=$779M EBITDA for 6 months.
=$1560M p/annum
=£1155M p/annum
For valuation purposes
x4=$6.2B or £4.6B
shares in issue 589M.
Share price £4.6B/589M = £7.80
Final note: standard valuation for similar miners runs at an av of 4 to 6 x EBITDA. So I have chosen to cautiously look at the lower end of the valuation spectrum
Also again without discussions on pellet premiums.
https://the-international-investor.com/investment-faq/reclaiming-withholding-tax-foreign-dividends
Learning the process myself as have failed to follow up on the last dividend paid.
However the next dividend paid, the Swiss will withhold over £5k.
Will let you know how I get on Hazey. Likewise appreciated if you have success.
Well its Lucky we are not in Africa then Lucky.
Company is headquartered in Switzerland and pays a decent taxes in Ukraine, plus supports local community.
It is more Zhivago's antics that have previously rocked the boat. I would hope he will be too happy counting his cash in future to mess around.
Unvr,
Valuation should be 4-6 x Ebitda for peer comparison, £10/ share.
Very long mine life, and progressive management team, big dividend player, incredible cash build.
However, regional risk/ major shareholder risk, iron ore prices settling.
Would comfortably like to see double where we are now.
But it will.
H1,20 revenue $776M, Fe 65 pellet price $105.90/t,
Average C1 cash cost (US$/t) $40.9/t.
Generated Underlying EBITDA $352M
Now imagine what current Fe pellet price $225/t, an uplift from $65/t achieved to $184/t, does to the bottom line?
H1 EBITDA $352M.
Going forward 6 monthly EBITDA $996M.
C$2B per annum.
FXPO should be multiples of current valuation.
Anyone worrying about £3 should look at the company position.
https://www.ferrexpo.com/system/files/uploads/financialdocs/2020-half-year-results.pdf
I think there was a lot of smaller deals out there that were no longer interesting to Rockrose, but extremely interesting for a new entry. Not expecting a deal pre xmas though Duster.
First deal and straight into suspension anyone?
Anyone any thoughts as to why we tanked so hard today?
Unfortunately all of the after hours trades are bull**** across a raft of shares. They won’t stand up on Monday. Picked through my watchlist, and plenty showing wild trades after close.
And the algos battling each other for the rest of the afternoon!
And suddenly there’s a leak, now stopped.
I’m sure it’s just a coincidence.
For clarity, Took my first lump yesterday and am
struggling to find few if any negatives surrounding BMN.
Felt I had missed out last time around so really happy to have a second chance.
It is a daft price down here. GLA
1 Million drops coming through, i’m assuming it’s Yellow dragon, which isn’t helping the price off the floor any.
Has anyone got a count of how far through the 34 million shares they are?
I’ve counted around 3 million over the last few days?