shares mag write up for 2023 tip30 Dec 2022 11:04
gold often does well during periods of
slowing growth and persistent inflation
(known as stagflation) and it should also
benefit from a reversal in the strong dollar
which held the precious metal back in 2022.
Bitcoin’s claims to be an alternative to gold have
taken a battering in recent months as the collapse
of cryptocurrency platform FTX has seen the digital
token more than halve from 2022 highs. That could
see more people move out of bitcoin and into gold
as a safe-haven asset.
Anyone looking to play anticipated gold price
strength should consider investing in Shanta Gold
(SHG:AIM). By purchasing shares in a gold miner,
investors are exposed to operational risks but there
is scope for greater reward if the company delivers.
In our view Shanta is well placed heading
into 2023. The company should benefit from an
improved performance at its core asset New Luika
in Tanzania, the start of production at the Singida
mine (also in Tanzania) and as exploration results
continue to demonstrate the outstanding potential
of its West Kenya exploration asset.
New Luika is seeing an improvement in grades,
the amount of metal within the ore dug out
of the ground, after a tough 2021. This should
provide Shanta with the cash flow to complete the
commissioning of Singida, expected by March, fund
more drilling at West Kenya and pay dividends.
Singida is expected to double Shanta’s
production to 100,000 ounces per year. The AISC
or all-in sustaining cost is a key metric which shows
the direct and recurring costs to mine a unit of ore.
Shanta has guided for a life of mine AISC of $932
per ounce at Singida which compares with $1,207
at New Luika for the third quarter of 2022.
A lot of excitement around the stock is likely to
be driven by the West Kenya project where Shanta
has already enjoyed considerable exploration
success. Shanta hopes to double an inferred
resource of 1.5 million ounces at the project,
which it describes as having ‘bonanza-grade gold
intercepts’.
It is important to understand the risks of
investing in Shanta. It currently generates revenue
from a single project and there is no guarantee that
the second mine will start operations smoothly.
The gold price can be volatile and unpredictable,
and a lot depends on the dollar weakening for the
metal price to pick up from the current $1,777 per
ounce level.
Based on Liberum’s forecasts the shares trade
on an attractive 2023 free cash flow yield of 18.2%.
The mining industry has already recognised the
value on offer, with Shanta recently rebuffing
takeover approaches from Shandong Gold and
Chaarat Gold (CGH:AIM). Further takeover interest
cannot be ruled out. [TS]