my rational for investment6 Feb 2019 19:47
The reasons I invested in this company are pretty straightforward, notwithstanding the constant diatribe of people who hark on negatively about the past. I will set out the following points from facts thus far reported, that I believe mark the trajectory of the business. Make of it what you will but it is my position:
1. I believe they will slowly but surely grow and become a sustainable business. Each month for the past three months to December their sales have increased at a record pace and management have stated that their ongoing costs will be kept low. The management have repeated on several occasions. We have yet to receive December figures but they are expected to be seasonally, and logically lower then other months, the test will be the January / Feb figures.
2. Likewise, management have stated they have enough of a cash runway to take them to cash flow positive status. Again, a matter of record and they would only have reasonably done so, taking into account all current payables and projections. You either believe them or you don’t it is that simple.
3. As a growth business they need increase market share and do so effectively they, need to do this through low margins. Otherwise they would not be a challenger. Therefore, profit is not the early benchmark in my view, it is increasing sales and increasing market share. This and only this, allows challenger companies to grow and in turn. Over time they have stated the strategy is to increase scale and achieve margins with suppliers. The higher the volumes the lower the costs from carriers (talk talk, BT , et al). The key in the short/medium term is will revenue cover costs and I believe they will achieve this.
4. They have taken sales in house and in doing so have already proven from recent trading updates that this is a logical, cost benefiting move long term. Again, you either believe them or you don’t.
5.The Mcap for this company is low at 2.77m when you consider they had raised 1.97m net in the last fundraise. I also believe that they have yet to capitalise the Merlin IP software BUT a word of caution here, I await clarification on this outcome. So if anyone knows better please reference this for me?
Like any investment this is a risk but given the company is valued at around circa £800,000 (minus cash) in real terms, I am happy to stake my money and I have. What you do is up to each and every individual.
Regards to all even the negative one among us
DJ