Member Info for deepbluediver

Noob67 unfortunately nothing too exotic on the rare gas side from me, I was a total oilman back in the days. a lot of exotic locations though, and some mad ones (running field operations in active war zones anyone?) - hence my early retirement. My mind and body needed a break.

Will go through the link you shared - thank you.

minor correction
"On seeps (HC vs He), the difference is timescale. HC "kitchen" are generally no longer active today, therefore likely seeps will originate from a reservoir that has containment integrity ISSUE, unlike He which is still very much actively being generated and continue to migrate to this date. seeps therefore, in the case of He, is very welcomed!"

Adrian
Its good to share experiences here and like all experiences, they are unique therefore no rebuttals. Let me share from my limited work before i retired from E&P in 2014.

On seismic and subsurface in general;
1. I see where you are coming from regarding timelines. Ive come across many proposals from seismic companies proposing work (sub 500 km2 area for example - usual interpretation, rock physics, well tie in etc) and the timeline can range anything from 4-9 months. For example, when the license work commitment has legs in it, there is no rush therefore time is less an issue and management focuses on cost and deliverables.
2. on the flipside, having been involved in too many field development and re-developments (the latter is more onerous especially the giant fields in the North), i have also seen workscopes that combines full seismic re-interpretation, full AVO, sim to seis and back, 4D geomechanics, HM driven by 4D seismic - all completed in less than a year, with results to show until today on both sides on the border. these were not one off and I have repeated these across most continents with 40+ field operations worldwide. These are generally results oriented driven by management who wants both great results and at speed successfully. availability of cash, and / or aligned commercial model with supply chain generally allows this.

On seeps (HC vs He), the difference is timescale. HC "kitchen" are generally no longer active today, therefore likely seeps will originate from a reservoir that has containment integrity, unlike He which is still very much actively being generated and continue to migrate to this date. seeps therefore, in the case of He, is very welcomed!

On faults healing, plenty of salt deposits bearing in mind the hot springs around.

nevertheless - risks are risk. until that drill bit hits a He reservoir, there are real risk and how we manage our own risks and money is not for me to address. (we all have different personal circumstances)

For avoidance of doubt, I have been in this share since IPO and have kept every single share i bought - all 1 million and a bit. DYOR

maybe spud is the wrong nomenclature here...

its success vs failure rather than spud v no spud

numbers are very close to my spreadsheet! if you run this for E&P risk scenario, its hodl to the end!

very good views here, thanks, much appreciated. I initially wanted to hold until either exit point or this share is dead (binary), but the free carry (derisked) strategy sounds very attractive - offload 1/3 for 2/3rd of shares "free". hmm.

saying that, Trek's note is making me wanting to continue to hodl:
"You also have to factor in the sp lock-ins for the seed investors and directors and Mitchell’s taking part shares. That’s a huge level of confidence."

will wait a bit before deciding.

88p revised after dilution for an 18bcf discovery according to H&P. Higher if we hit >18 bcf

before i go under my rock and hibernate, one key point AA mentioned at 14:05 (that hasn't been highlighted here) which caught my eyes (ears) is the economic date - 1/1/2021. Therefore whatever value of the transaction will be reduced against cumulative FCF from 1/1/2021 to completions date.

simple example for numpties like me: if transaction is 100 dollars, but from 1/1/2021 (economic date) to completion date there is 30 dollars of FCF accumulated, this reduces the amount of cash changing hands so effective transaction cost is 70 dollars. DYOR. and bye. (<> hands again, and rockets whatnot)

hmm... i bought and went to sleep on this share on the 18th Mar and woke up to check it today and the sp is doing quite well since i jumped in. I might go back to sleep and pop back in 3 months... 8000 by then?

thanks @BillRayVal
that's all music to my ears.. targeting 3x upside on production, healthy FCF and "grass wont grow under his feet" - hopefully he didn't douse it with Roundup or something else. ha.

looks like its time for me to go back under my rock and sit quietly on this share until the next deal is announced... diamond hands and whatnot, blah blah moon and beyond...! .

buy quoted at 16.86p now...

I hear you Glib. I am just very happy we have someone here with good charting know how. Of course, like the weather here in spring, it can go up and down but my eyes are firmly on the drill now so the current sp price is moot.

If it dips after this, I will dip back in. ... my caveat being these teen prices at low volumes (sub 50k) don't move my average much anymore hence why i am happy topping up.

chaps, just bought in at 191.99, below the PrimaryBid offer which what I was hoping (although I missed some nice dips recently, I don't care). I added Argo as I think we are about to go bull on crypto coins which I also own. I say, let it fly, to the moon and beyond.

cool, just bought a bit to top up - not much, @16.7749p per share.

Glib
"We are currently about to move into that channel if we go above 16p. Following the trend of the past week, that will happen on the 28th at around 16.55p. That is a very narrow projection however."

seems like we are now there at - great work!

Ah, that's her Dr. Danabalan in the pic.. good thesis. I just checked my linkedIn, I didn't realise she is already my 1st connection. i must have met her in my prior life!

hoping to hear environmental assessment have been approved and all required permits have been signed off.... fingers crossed.

Agree and I think its good that you raise this - very healthy for our BB. some comments:

"I have seen prolific gas traps in tilted fault blocks with very recent structuration and big faults extending up to the surface similarly to this area (eg. Tazerka and Oudna light oil fields in Tunisia), but they are not that common and rely on significant present day active charge. "
- yes, the He is actively still being generated therefore still migrating today in the overburden.

Indeed on the other prospect, I would not drill it myself (at the point of the report being written) but they have 2D infills already being worked as a plan (pre drill) as Dai2belt had mentioned and you have implied. Personally and in my prior life, I would not allow drilling to commence until a complete 3D has been done, and I think a low frequency work would give better insight on top of conventional geoscience workscope. but I am not a geologist like you who will know the subject better.

With DM himself an experienced exploration geologist by background, supported by Lorna an E&P senior geologist, and likely the original explorers (Durham and Oxford bods) who are also geoscientist by background, i am quietly confident they would do the right thing on the prospecting side.

I will get a bit worried after discovery and appraisal moving to development as they will need someone with strong track record on development in their team which they don't have today (which is not an issue to hire later). but that's a later opportunity for them. (I might polish my CV, haha).

I wish management would allow a tempered Q&A with shareholders, it would be great (DM and team if you are reading this, we promise our questions will be constructive!)

ps: as an aside seeing you are a geologist, have you read Gluyas' tomb - United Kingdom Oil and Gas Fields: 50th Anniversary Commemorative Volume? its huge but worth it.

Thanks.. i didnt manage to find the coupon price. This is helpful to understand fcf annually..

@dai2belts
i think so too, if i change interval to smaller time steps, you can see its not a single trade.