Stephan Bernstein, CEO of GreenRoc, details the PFS results for the new graphite processing plant. Watch the video here.
Here we go again. Same debate, over and over.
If you're BKT and you're LOOKING AT building infrastructure, then yes - It's highly likely you'll ask other 'advanced' or developing projects to contribute.
But if you're BKT, and the others look miles away, you won't want to wait for others to do so, either! Imagine ACP, BKT and EGR decided to pay $11 Million each to raise the $33 million. BKT have the cash. So now they're going to wait however long it takes for the other to raise their share?
Again. Don't be ridiculous.
EVERY SINGLE mining jurisdiction will have one company pave the way, for others to follow suit and piggy-back off the newly built infrastructure. Whether that's a year down the line, or 50 years down the line, you'll likely see someone has had to build infrastructure in some of these remote regions.
As for the power - Your argument about it ONLY being sufficient for BKT's needs is even more ridiculous. You're telling me thar the power lines will skip every single village along the way and SOLELY power BKT? So Tanzania will see fit having cross-country power lines that all go to one single mine, and nothing else? Heaven forbid they allow the villages along the way to benefit from grid infrastructure. This is called FDI - Foreign Direct Investment. It's something all developing economies want, and need. And it's how they grow!
BKT will not OWN the power lines. They will not OWN the roads. What do you think will happen? Every mine has their own electricity pylons and their own roads? What do you think? 7 parallel roads running side by side? 3 sets of electricity pylons?
You can criticise the price action and lack of comms all you want (because I'm in agreement there, too). You can say graphite stocks are just on a hype at the moment, because you're probably right. You can even say you don't believe ACP are waiting on BKT.
But why are you talking such utter nonsense when it comes to infrastructure?
You do realise 220kv is the voltage, not the amps? Plenty of electricians on AIM who can probably explain to you that multiple projects can be powered from a 220kv transmission line.
And no, I can't see anything official from ACP saying they're waiting out BKT, and I wouldn't expect to either. The last thing ACP want is BKT asking for others to chip in.
That's why following BKT signing off on what they need to, it's then too late for BKT to ask. And it times in with posters saying MB is keeping a low profile on purpose.
*facepalm*
Yes. That's exactly what 'Walkabout' will do. Although it's BKT building out infrastructure in Mahenge.
When you have 3 companies located next to one another, and one is further ahead in development, they then need to build out the infrastructure.
Then, as other companies come along, those companies use said infrastructure. You're no going to see 200km long power lines, roads and railway sidings that are 100% privately owned.
Those roads and power lines are utilised by all. It's how countries develop. I don't know why this is something we keep having to discuss. It's not like BKT are buying up the land the road will go on, or buying up the land where the pylons will sit.
They're not buying out the entire hydro-electric Power Dam and they're not buying out all the water supporting the dam!
Tanzania get what they need - Infrastructure built and paid for.
BKT get what they need - Infrastructure to operate their mine.
Then Tanzania can attract more mineral exploration companies and more developers to build out their own GDP. Why? Oh, that's right, because we have roads, cheap power, railways etc... "So come and invest in Tanzania!"
The idea that somebody can built a cross-country road that only 18 trucks a day can use is ludicrous.
Can you show me an example, any example of a company that can't get a project going because they don't have permission to use the roads and power infrastructure because another mining company paid for the build?
The Macro thesis has always been there, but sometimes you just need a catalyst to get the wider public interested.
We're still waiting on BKT progress, but this could certainly be the signal that Graphite has been the ugly sister for quite a while. Large increases across the sector, and the following month will tell the tale.
Exciting times ahead, and nice to see some green!
I'm not entirely sure how these valuations are assessed, as every asset has some sort of base valuation attached to it - Whether it's £75,000 for a tenement, or several million for an undeveloped resource.
But I do certainly agree with you in regards to a valuation mis-match, that is largely driven by sentiment, and a general downturn in the market.
On the subject of grammar, Stafetrader1:
so don't use grammar out with your capabilities you **** :)
What on earth is the above supposed to mean?
"you don't even know the meaning of the word correlated you plank, so you are completely contradicting yourself !!"
"you" should be capitalised.
You do have several grammatically correct options for the remainder of the statement, but you seem to have ignored them all in order to remain incorrect.
Don't start on grammar, because your own leaves a lot to be desired.
Did the FCA actually use the word imminent?
As in, they could imminently decide to launch an investigation? Or is it something they couldn't imminently decide to do because of procedures and processes?
If there's no investigation forthcoming, who do you escalate your complaint to?
A lot of people have forgotten that this bear market didn’t start in 2022 – For most companies it started in 2021, and look at any junior you’ll see the shareprices perform poorly over the past 2 years. I’m sorry (not you Wasa, but others) the bear market has not ended as quickly as many of you planned for it, and I’m sorry I can’t give any one an end date. But this is where people make money. When nobody else is interested. Nobody wanted KOD at 0.005, nobody wanted PREM at 0.005. I wish I bought more at those prices, but I didn’t. KOD had a genuine bankruptcy risk, and PREM had a CEO that was only ever in it for the lifestyle. Recognising they were both still incredibly undervalued at £5 million market caps, I still bought small/moderate positions in both.
I don’t see those same risks here at ACP. I just see retail crying, and I’m sorry to say – When I see the likes of AmTech and Leathal bawlings their eyes out about how it will never end, those are incredibly large buy signals for me.
I have better companies than ACP, with better management within this sector that are getting beaten down just as much. Look at the total shareprice declines for BKT and Ecograf from their highs. Look at BRES announcing great news with nobody buying in. This is the market that people are complaining about receiving no updates. You can either release news into a bear market, and wait for things to pick up… Or you can wait for things to pick up and then release news into a bull market cycle. It’s really that simple.
So I wouldn’t call it brave, at all. I just try and separate my emotions and make a decision. Sometimes you get it right. Sometimes you get it wrong. But one thing’s for certain – The vast majority of people clamouring to get in at 6p are the same ones selling at 1p… And in 6 months time they’ll find another company to repeat the exact same failing process they’ve always followed only to claim everything’s a scam and the little guy never wins.
END.
Smashed in every time a buy when in to push the bid up? Yes, that only really accounts for us dumping down to around 3.3p, but below that? It's all retail capitulation from those who have never seen a bear market, not have they ever studied one. There aren't many sellers left in this, and those who have bought in at around 1p aren't likely to be buying to flip at 1.5p. The only people exiting are those holding from around 5p - And there's only so many of them left.
On the other hand, one could argue that the board are genuinely struggling to progress this. In which case, sell. And that's what many have done. Personally, I only see two factors here:
A. The passage of time. People will always grow impatient.
B. The shareprice has been dwindling.
If we were sitting at 5p and £20 million Market Cap with no progress, nobody would be crying. They'd just be moaning about waiting. But instead, people are looking at deep losses with the belief that they'll never recover, yet at the same time many aren't willing to exit, either.
4. The half-year update:
Was it a good update? Yes and No. Investment side was great news. Progress wise? We received nothing. And to be honest, I expected nothing. Why? Because the factors surrounding BKT and The Tanzanians have not changed. So on this basis, why should I be expecting meaningful progress? Because I've waiting 2 years? Because I've waited 6 weeks? Because I've waited 6 years? How long you've waited and how trigger happy you got in the past, or how scared you are now has absolutely no bearing on how this progresses.
I will note the difference in quality (in terms of presentation and in terms of depth) between BKT’s half year update, and also ours. Our comms have been atrocious since day one. But I knew this when I invested. Everyone else knew this when they invested. Can it be improved? Yes. Should it be improved? Yes. But we all still invested knowing full well MB is terrible when it comes to communications, and most likely doesn’t understand the value of aesthetics or PR.
5. Wasa
I wouldn’t say it’s ‘brave’ to be buying. I can full understand why people wish to just sit tight and weight it out, but it’s quite simple for me:
Deep into a bear market, I look for companies that are over-sold by people panicking, and then I ask the following questions:
1. Is this company in genuine danger of bankruptcy or other major risk?
2. Is this company genuinely over-sold?
I don’t see a bankruptcy, I don’t see a political risk, I don’t see any major graphite related risk that can see this company fail. I.e. nothing out of the ordinary that can destroy any company. Then, when I look at the selling, I keep buying. It may not be in the original £ amounts, but I’m happy to buy where I can afford to do so because the thesis hasn’t changed. We’re still waiting for newsflow that clearly depends on various factors, and we’re still in the middle of a bear market that
First of all, I'll address the white elephant in the room:
1. Amtech - You do have a valid point with regards to statements to the effect of newsflow being 'imminent', and then no corrective RNS to say it's no longer 'imminent'. I'd never disagree with this, but you're genuinely taking it too far to state that this is fraud. If this was being firmed up for a cheap sale, it makes no sense to not pump it beforehand.
During the BCN takeover they didn't need to pump it prior because the board held literally no shares. They had options ready to be paid off and vest upon any takeover. Here, it's a little different. MB owns shares. It's in his own interests to see the price rise.
On a side note to the takeover rumours - Again, if this was the case, then the company would need to be packaged up in order to sell it. Nobody is taking over an asset in the midst of government negotiations, a part-way complete FEED study, or an out-dated DFS. Any buyer would need all of this in place, and to conduct their own DD with The Tanzanians beforehand.
Usually, they announce a 'possible offer' subject to govt negotiations etc.
So let's put that rumour to bed, please.
2. AmTech, I know you don't like the directors withdrawing salaries in line with a lack of progress. But this is a red herring. Nobody works, consults, or sits on a board for free. It's unheard of. The other issue to bare in mind is slashing salaries (I always agree with this in principle) can be seen as a sign of having cashflow issues. I can think of many a company where people scream: "Directors are sacrificing their salaries! They must really care!" - However this does not detract from the fact that it makes it as clear as day that there are significant cashflow issues.
3. What's the thesis, and who is exiting?
The thesis is simple. It's been said time and time again. We, Ecograf and others in the pipeline ideally need BKT to build out power lines, roads and a railway. This infrastructure will connect Mahenge to the grid, and to the port. This infrastructure is always available for public use. Would you rather see all the companies come together and agree to mutually fund it? And by mutually fund it, I mean would you like to be diluted into extra financing? I know I wouldn't. I look to companies like HZM that have had calls from the bank to raise more finance due to costs rising. Who wants that?
We unfortunately have to sit back and wait for the Macro environment to change, and for progress to be made with BKT before we can further advance. Which brings us towards the dwindling shareprice. Looking at the volume, we've not seen multiples of the outstanding shares trade hands in the past 2 years. Somewhere around 700m shares over two years. The volume has also been steadily slowing since we hit our highs. That slowing volume is nothing more than retail bleeding out, and deciding to pack it in. Don't you remember the days of £10,000 sales being (1/more)
Https://www.jornada.com.mx/noticia/2023/09/25/economia/cancelan-la-concesion-del-yacimiento-de-litio-mas-grande-de-mexico-7435
This was forwarded to me by one of the journalists who interviews me for Mexican TV.
9 concessions of Ganfeng's in Sonora have been cancelled.
Amtech, I think it was Rick Rule or Bill Powers who said: "If you can't stand to see yourself at least 50% down, then junior mining is not for you".
A lot of people can't, and that's fine.
I think there's also the fact that this is on AIM, which is naturally low in liquidity, and has historically been a bit of a joke in terms of the companies listed.
Then you've got to factor in the jurisdictional risk.
These things don't bother me at all because I'll look at 20 graphite companies before deciding if I'm going to invest in a single one.
We invest in a particular company because we feel it will be the 1 in 100 that will be a success, and if you do your research it's more 1 in 5 - Because you can easily discount 95 out of 100.
I tend to take a top-down approach when investing.
1. Macro-Thesis
2. Jurisdiction
3. Management
4. Resource
5. Financials
6. AHT Analysis
I'll use all the above when making a decision, and yes... I can still get it wrong at times, but until something I benchmark turns into a red flag I tend to ignore all the noise.
The only two mistakes I made when buying here (in my opinion) was discounting the possibility of being too early, and that was because lithium had already gone on a run, and then discounting the fact that we had an aggressive seller (Kabunga wasn't management, and I only looked into management as opposed to others).
It's difficult to time the market, if not impossible. So I'm not at all bothered about being too early. Rather than than too late.
Then looking at Kabunga, I should have done better in spotting an aggressive/toxic seller. I know what AIM is like (Bacanora Lithium springs to mind), but we're generally here to find those few companies that we believe will come good, and not randomly shoving money blindly into several companies hoping 'one of them hits'.
Many do treat this like roulette, but I certainly don't. Whether I talk this up, down, or not at all, it will eventually recover, because even turds float. So were I concerned, I'd wait it out until the market turned and then get my money back. But I'm not in this for that, and I'm not even remotely close to that stage. I'm buying more because I still see this coming good.
I ran a DCF on this, and based on the economics, and factoring dilution - I came to a price of around 66p a share in production. Then factoring in AIM, Tanzania, and less favourable dilution, I'm still calculating around 30p+.
But aside from what I've mentioned, I didn't pick anything up as a red flag to deter me from investing, and I still don't see anything today.
I do think you're a smart guy, AmTech...
But it's clear that you tried to trade this and got stuck in the mud, so to speak.
This comes with the territory when trading, and if you feel you were somehow "cheated" out of your profits because of a forward looking statement in an RNS, then feel free to make a complaint to the toothless FCA who probably won't do a thing because:
A. The FCA are toothless
B. It was a forward-looking statement.
The use of language is key in any RNS or official communique (as I've discovered first hand)
This is the ultimate risk in trying to time even a proportion of your investment - You'll seldom catch the top for a sell, or the bottom for a buy.
I'm not sure what you hope to achieve by become the resident moaning bar stool here.
Out of curiousity, Amtech:
What exactly is your exit plan here? Do you have a vague idea of where you're planning on cutting your losses, or even liquidating entirely? It's clearly not a case of throwing in the towel, because you probably would have done so already.
But that being said, you're still holding. I'm curious as to where exactly you plan on finally getting rid? Surely you can't be waiting for a some sort of turnaround because you bash this company daily, so it wouldn't make sense from your perspective to hold out until this company looks like a positive investment for you.
I think we all get that you don't like the use of the word 'imminent', and you don't like the silence. But if that changes do you suddenly become a bull? Or do you have a clear exit plan in sight?