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I'm not sure if Amtech understands the concept of shifting goalposts.
A financier may mention at the last minute: "Oh by the way, we now want x,y, and z complete before funding this".
At this point, the strategy changes. After this, the financier may say: Oh, you won't need y, just x and z".
So with one thing being contingent to the other, the strategy changes again.
Does back and forth constitute "material information"?
I don't have the answer to that. But if you think it does, and isn't being published, I'd suggest you go and make a formal complaint instead of constantly moaning on here, because you're starting to get tiresome.
Well at the very least, we can all see the source of your frustration - Just a stuck trader.
I have nothing against traders, but my sole concerns are on long term value being built here, and not the intermediate shareprice.
@Amtech
I can think of plenty of reasons (both good and bad) for this.
Perhaps the finance on offer wasn't good enough for the CEO?
Perhaps the CEO wasn't good enough to negotiate the terms to his satisfaction?
Perhaps the CEO thought he could get a better deal elsewhere?
Perhaps the CEO saw BKT negotiate off-take prepayments, and wanted to try and acquire similar to negotiate for less debt?
Perhaps it was the issue of the Tanzanian Free-Carry agreement dragging out that slowed things down?
I don't have all the answers, but I can certainly make calculated guesses.
I believe that the finance on offer wasn't the best, and the CEO didn't want to go for the first available offer. I also believe that since the Tanzanian Free-Carry issue began dragging out, it held up the updated DFS. Following on from this, realising certain bits of infrastructure was already going to be built, there would be no need to factor this in.
This has led to a little bit of a waiting game, which has left us in limbo.
I'd like them to take this quiet period by re-building the website, and perhaps re-naming to Armadale Graphite or something similar.
It's the same thing - The company isn't performing 'poorly', but the comms have been lacking. As is the share price.
I think you need to decide whether you're packing it in now, when you get to break even, or whether you're going to hold like Wasa and I and actually make some serious money here as this heads into production.
@Amtech and for whoever else.
I understand your points, but here are a few things to bear in mind:
1. When mining companies come to fruition, they can't go to a bank or even a secondary lender to raise funds. The only option they tend to have are these early stage toxic lenders who ask for Board Seats, Warrants, Options, Royalties etc etc.
2. Did/Does Armadale have this problem? Yes. The majority of it is done with, but Kabunga only has around 4.4 Million shares in warrants left.
3. This company did not start out looking for large graphite resources. They stumbled across it, and realised that the best way forward is to take it into production, rather than roll around in circles like many companies do.
4. Kabunga is one such early stage lender. The final dregs of the hang-up with him is still there, and will be done once the September warrants convert.
What you need to understand, is guys like him don't really want to get into production. That's not how they make their money. They like to go around in circles adding more and more projects to a company. Then selling assets on to fund further drillings etc etc. It's the age-old rinse and repeat story that we see not only on AIM, but across many in the junior mining sector.
Kabunga has been heavily selling down his stake to fund his cash calls at Volt Resources. He has been selling his warrant shares for the exact same purpose.
I hear your point about him 'profiting', but he's not making the millions he had planned - Australian short term taxes are brutal. He would have been paying 45% on profit made, which with 3.5p warrants being sold at 4.5p - That's around 0.55p profit per share.
I'm glad that he's more or less out, as he's a relic from when this was a completely different company. Volt can have him.
5. As you've stated numerous times - News has been garbage here. Nobody denies this. But you need to get a hold of yourself and accept that this is part and parcel.
Did I rush in on anticipation of news? Yes. Did that news come in? No.
But that's the game. I'm confident that things are progressing here, and will progress fruitfully.
Regarding the DFS. I read you were asking about "how many of these do we need?"
Many companies try and build mines with out-dated DFS', and then come back to the market hat in hand begging for more money. Things change, and so long as the original DFS is over-estimating costs we no longer have (such as building a road and power facilities from scratch) I wouldn't call it misleading investors. It's simply a change caused by the passage of time.
For all we know, it's possible that funders want an updated DFS. I know newsflow is garbage here, but you almost seem to be on tilt.
We all know what's happening, and what we're waiting for - But we can't make it happen faster for you.
Below is a Twitter link to a chart showing the movements of Armadale, Blencowe and Tirupati Graphite.
Although delayed news here isn't helping at all, we can see the trendlines being pretty much exactly the same.
The only differences are where good and bad news has led to noted spikes and falls.
Blencowe has had no real newsflow, and you can see how it has just steadily fallen.
Tirupati has had some bad news recently, and you can see it drop off.
The last good news with Armadale was Mining licence last year, and you can see the clear spike.
Aside from that? The charts are best identical, showing the overall market sentiment is what's driving this downward movement.
https://twitter.com/GungHoStocks/status/1546452972527403010?t=ZPnaRkza88Y6s6CSrOhXeQ&s=19
Amyech,
Could you show me which part of the DFS is misleading?
Because I've only seen the highlights.
If you're referring to the total Capex, the entire purpose of it is to be able to take it to a bank/lender and have them satisfied the money will build it.
It's also to tell ACP how much each component will cost them.
If it satisfies that, I fail to see how it's misleading?
You need to bare in mind we only received the highlights of the DFS, as opposed to the full DFS document itself. I admit it was something I found a little annoying, as it's a document I generally do enjoy reading.
Pretty much every mine needs some sort of access road built. There's nothing different here.
Whether BKT are happy with it or not is irrelevant. It's a long known consensus that these road have to offer public use - Especially as they can connect incredibly rural communities with cities they wouldn't otherwise have access to.
Everyone (aside those with liquidity) is frustrated with these price levels, but patience is still key here.
More or less every Junior is following the same chart pattern as this is a market-wide issue. Our newsflow will come.
At this stage you need stomach, not brains.
Once BKT secure their funding deal, they'll commence pre-construction works, and the first thing is clearing any top-soil, and building an access road.
The road will come sooner rather than later as it's particularly important to get heavy machinery to the site.
It's relatively obvious that others in the area (including ACP) will be using this road. I believe Ecograph are likely to, too.
A part of me feels the lack of news we've had has actually been a blessing in disguise.
Nothing to do with MB, but just pure luck.
Looking at the likes of HZM, it's the lowest it's been since COVID hit.
BKT can basically erase a years worth of SP growth. They're also very unlikely to rocket up over their financing deal because they've already had a large run-up, and pre-construction tends to be the lowest ebb of the Lassonde Curve.
Whereas this has been dog sh*t (in terms of SP) for well over a year, it still has huge potential to move.
Aside from the scared liquidity sellers, there aren't any sellers below 5p here. It just needs the buying volume (news related) to start moving up.
We know what we're waiting for:
1. Tanzanian Free Carry agreement. I'd be very surprised to see this above 16%.
2. Updated DFS. The above percentage would need to be plugged into it, which would explain the delay.
3. Off-takes. Graphite may not be a homogenous product, but those differences can be mitigated when your mine is next door to another.
4. FEED Phase 2. These things tend to be paid for on a contractual basis. The more you pay, the more resources Xinhai allocate, and the faster the work gets done. I don't imagine there being a rush here, which is why it has taken so long.
5. Financing. Will this be a problem? No. Why? Because lenders in the resources space look at the demand of the commodity. Graphite demand is sky-rocketing, and supply is simply not there. The IRR of the project is at such a grade that ACP can afford a higher interest rate whilst paying the loan back faster.
Now, nothing is perfect. We know the wait has been dehabilitating for some, and the comms have been atrocious.
But it's also why Peter Lynch says it's not about having brains, but about having a stomach.
If the project remains on track (albeit slow), and material news is not negative - Why would you sell other than the sight of a red portfolio?
It's more than possible this slips further, but Juniors have been the first to go in this market. Nobody saw that coming, but it's the well positioned projects that'll likely be the first to recover.
We're lucky to be in a position to know precisely what we're waiting for, and now it's just a question of waiting for it.
A lot of us got excited when the mining licence was approved, but it's our own faults for investing on the back of hype, and not DCA in.
Now we're at the lowest it's been in years, and suddenly it's a bad investment?
Not at all.
The Board are here for productio
What people are missing, is early stage funders don't tend to be the nicest on the block.
We're clearly seeing a hang-up from the past when it comes to warrants.
Whilst the warrants have generated good cash for the company, we all underestimated how much of a hang-up this has caused the SP.
Now the last of them will be rid on Saturday.
Project economics are very good, with scope to make them great.
CEO is very much shareholder aligned, and a part of me says that he doesn't want to see good news sold into by warrant exercisers.
The ML good news last year was heavily sold into by one particular seller, who's likely more or less out now.
It also looks as though the May warrants will be sold without any news to sell into.
Is this planned? Is it a coincidence? Whatever it is - Our only gripe is the stagnant shareprice.
I do believe the lack of Comms and snails pace is to ensure the MC is as high as possible when it comes to financing. Warrant sellers aren't going to help, in that regard.
I also feel the CEO is being deliberately quiet as to provide no ammunition to the sellers that are/were in there.
It's annoying seeing no action, but I feel we'll all be more grateful for it when news finally lands with no hang-ups in place.
That's just for those on LSE, and not on Telegram to fill in the blanks.
CJ was one of 50 odd people to join the group.
Mando recently invited CJ to re-join the old group (To Mando's credit, he did do a lot of research). Then Mando booted him as soon as CJ asked legitimate questions.
Mando invited me back to the group again, and instead sent me a link to a Tower Resources group. I saw the exact same type of Rockfire pumping there. So I left that group.
Now Mando is accusing CJ of being Wsguy (FYI, none of us in The Rockfire Group Shelter know who he is - So feel free to reach out. My Twitter is @gunghostocks) I know you're half trolling, but you seem to know how to do DD.
What's worse, is you're mentioning people's mothers, and making baseless claims.
The fact is, (we were all stupid enough to invest) you've been pumping ROCK like a clown, and more or less everyone is sitting at a loss.
Have some shame, admit you made some mistakes, and admit your geological knowledge isn't at the level of a professional.
A little bit of knowledge is a very dangerous thing.
A lot of us have our real identities/pictures out there, yet you hide in the shadows with no willingness to reveal yourself - Yet ask people for proof of ownership for ROCK?
The mistakes you're making with people are the exact same type of mistakes you make with your investments and your relentless pumping.
It's time to call it quits. Either improve yourself as a person, or stop leading the witless astray.
Many newbie investors have real money and circumstances at stake, and often look to the either the most knowledgeable or loudest for guidance.
You're certainly loud, but you're also incredibly toxic at times. And aside from your core group of followers, it won't be tolerated - I for one have kept relatively silent on LSE about you, but I won't have you name-dropping other people illegitimately.
I'll call you out every time if needs be.
I'm not happy with OilManMike/Mando calling people out (incorrectly) on this board.
It's also a low blow to call out people's mothers. We're not 15 anymore.
So let's get this straight:
1. Telegram itself isn't an issue. It's far better than this board. It's a lot more versatile, and a lot easier to dispense with trolls and hidden agendas.
2. There was initially one Rockfire Resources Group on Telegram. The Admin was randomly deleting posts, so Mando (Oilmanmike's Telegram handle) set up another group.
3. After a small glimpse of admin power, this is where it all went wrong.
Rather than being Mando "The Mandalorian", it became all Kim Jong Mando.
Kim Jong Mando first started out by dismissing every little bit of criticism for Rockfire.
Even general DD questions were dismissed. It was literally a pumping group where anyone even questioning Rockfire was booted from the group, or thrown a torrent of abuse which usually went along the lines of "I've studied the geology, I understand this, you're clueless and don't know what you're talking about, and you're going to lose out on 100x".
It was pure ramping.
Pre-Copperhead drilling, Kim Jong Mando's motif was: 5% drilled at $555 Million In-situ value = $20 Billion valuation on Copperhead.
Everything else was dismissed.
I only ever invested what I would in a drill-play (a highly speculative drill-play, at that) - Then I explained to Mando how in-situ value needs to be proven, and then it needs to be proven to be commercially extractable.
This was completely shut down by Mando with one/all of the above lines.
I explained (in September 2021) how there are huge backlogs for assays. Again, Mando dismissed this saying it'll all be wrapped up by Xmas.
Then when discussing portfolios (I mentioned how I tend to have 4-6 core positions), Mando saw how much I had invested in a stock via a Telegraph/Daily Mail article, and decided to extrapolate those figures to determine how much I had invested in ROCK.
(This is very similar to how he established the in-situ value at $20 Billion).
I explained to Mando that:
A. I'm not 100% invested. I hold cash too.
B. My holdings aren't split evenly.
C. 4-6 are my core positions.
Suddenly, Mando wanted prove of holdings. And he wanted them from everyone in the group.
A lot of us were not comfortable, and get this wasn't crypto land where you regularly post portfolios.
Some of his hardcore supporters still support him with their 60% bags, but a lot of us simply left the group.
We then created our own Rockfire group called 'Rockfire Resources Group Shelter'.
Because it was a shelter from Kim Jong Mando.
Here, we tried to honestly appraise the stock (personally, I was more on the bearish side, and even had a few members annoyed at my pessimism...) But I made it clear I'm only holding for an exit opportunity. The group also became a place for us to discuss general mining stocks.
That's just
Most brokers have forcibly liquidated everyone now.
All I'm claiming, is that this company and their resources are either unproven, or garbage.
I bought in at 1p, and sold at 0.4 - I should have sold a lot earlier. There's nothing I'm going to miss aside from a few more bags.
And it doesn't take a genius to work out who I am, though I have no idea who WhiteSuitGuy is. I know it's not CJ as you've already made accusations towards him about that. (You need to be very careful what you claim on social media, FYI).
I think you were convinced about 'the geology' - Yet how many professional geologists are excited about these projects?
You were convinced about Copperhead being worth $20 Billion - Yet how many majors are queuing up to take a piece of the project?
You're now convinced about the Zinc being some sort of saving grace. Zinc will be in a huge shortage, yet how many were desperate to get hold of this zinc project?
I don't think the CEO is a conman, but I don't think he's particularly good at what he does.
I tried to explain this to you MONTHS ago: In-situ value is meaningless unless you can commercially extract it from the ground. You ignored my point then, and most likely will ignore it now.
There's a reason there's a different Telegram group that you're not a part of. You've been ramping this for 6 months now, and all you have to show people is 60% losses. I don't blame you for my investment here, and I don't think you're a pump and dump merchant, but when are you going to stop with the obsession and accept that this company has next to nothing?
This is a case of the the lights are on, but nobody's home.
Perhaps this is just a case of Buying High and Selling Low, but I'm out.
I had a small punt position, and one thing I've learnt here is even with a small punt position - You still need to do the DD you would have done otherwise. I definitely bought into the hype (against my better judgement) or a large copper deposit - Which is simply not the case.
After I sold out, I had a look at a few of the old articles around Papua Mining. It's the same old re-hashed stories of Porphyry deposits that failed to materialise.
https://www.businessadvantagepng.com/papua-mining-may-seek-big-brother-to-help-develop-papua-new-guinea-prospects/
The above article sounds incredibly familiar.
Here's the company rejecting Battery Metals:
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/rockfire-rejects-battery-hype-for-queensland-copper-gold-49304181
Note what it says about the apparent "2.5%" grades.
I'll be completely honest:
1. This was always a drill play. Therefore manage your risk.
2. Just because you put a smaller amount of money in, doesn't mean you can neglect your research.
3. I don't blame any of the pumpers/so called Geology experts.
4. We've been had.
And they'll undoubtedly have us again when it comes to the next drill campaign.
They've been looking at this Greece deposit for quite a while. Initially, they were looking for 'something' in Greece, and then they came across this Zinc deposit. I believe this is prior to 2021 according to the Annual Reports.
Sometimes, you do the DD after selling to ensure you haven't made a bad decision. Having been kicked out of Papua New Guinea after "Not finding anything for 7 years" - Suddenly they found these amazing copper deposits the world seems to have forgotten about. I really should have looked all this up before I invested, but I was greedy and stupid.
I do believe this will head to a penny again, but no doubt it'll fall again, too.
In my opinion, this entire Greece story will turn into another hype-job like Copperhead, and then we'll see the shareprice rise, and then dump all over again.
Hopefully that's some food for thought for those still in here.