What next?5 Jul 2022 21:34
Once BKT secure their funding deal, they'll commence pre-construction works, and the first thing is clearing any top-soil, and building an access road.
The road will come sooner rather than later as it's particularly important to get heavy machinery to the site.
It's relatively obvious that others in the area (including ACP) will be using this road. I believe Ecograph are likely to, too.
A part of me feels the lack of news we've had has actually been a blessing in disguise.
Nothing to do with MB, but just pure luck.
Looking at the likes of HZM, it's the lowest it's been since COVID hit.
BKT can basically erase a years worth of SP growth. They're also very unlikely to rocket up over their financing deal because they've already had a large run-up, and pre-construction tends to be the lowest ebb of the Lassonde Curve.
Whereas this has been dog sh*t (in terms of SP) for well over a year, it still has huge potential to move.
Aside from the scared liquidity sellers, there aren't any sellers below 5p here. It just needs the buying volume (news related) to start moving up.
We know what we're waiting for:
1. Tanzanian Free Carry agreement. I'd be very surprised to see this above 16%.
2. Updated DFS. The above percentage would need to be plugged into it, which would explain the delay.
3. Off-takes. Graphite may not be a homogenous product, but those differences can be mitigated when your mine is next door to another.
4. FEED Phase 2. These things tend to be paid for on a contractual basis. The more you pay, the more resources Xinhai allocate, and the faster the work gets done. I don't imagine there being a rush here, which is why it has taken so long.
5. Financing. Will this be a problem? No. Why? Because lenders in the resources space look at the demand of the commodity. Graphite demand is sky-rocketing, and supply is simply not there. The IRR of the project is at such a grade that ACP can afford a higher interest rate whilst paying the loan back faster.
Now, nothing is perfect. We know the wait has been dehabilitating for some, and the comms have been atrocious.
But it's also why Peter Lynch says it's not about having brains, but about having a stomach.
If the project remains on track (albeit slow), and material news is not negative - Why would you sell other than the sight of a red portfolio?
It's more than possible this slips further, but Juniors have been the first to go in this market. Nobody saw that coming, but it's the well positioned projects that'll likely be the first to recover.
We're lucky to be in a position to know precisely what we're waiting for, and now it's just a question of waiting for it.
A lot of us got excited when the mining licence was approved, but it's our own faults for investing on the back of hype, and not DCA in.
Now we're at the lowest it's been in years, and suddenly it's a bad investment?
Not at all.
The Board are here for productio