Member Info for Dee12345

I think we've bottomed, tbh. There may be a few looking to exit at higher prices, but I think the selling at these prices are more or less done.

Https://www.jornada.com.mx/noticia/2023/09/25/economia/cancelan-la-concesion-del-yacimiento-de-litio-mas-grande-de-mexico-7435

This was forwarded to me by one of the journalists who interviews me for Mexican TV.

9 concessions of Ganfeng's in Sonora have been cancelled.

Looking at the chart, I think we've more or less bottomed, now. I think I had it between 0.78 and 0.71 before we're due a bounce.

Amtech, I think it was Rick Rule or Bill Powers who said: "If you can't stand to see yourself at least 50% down, then junior mining is not for you".

A lot of people can't, and that's fine.

I think there's also the fact that this is on AIM, which is naturally low in liquidity, and has historically been a bit of a joke in terms of the companies listed.

Then you've got to factor in the jurisdictional risk.

These things don't bother me at all because I'll look at 20 graphite companies before deciding if I'm going to invest in a single one.

We invest in a particular company because we feel it will be the 1 in 100 that will be a success, and if you do your research it's more 1 in 5 - Because you can easily discount 95 out of 100.

I tend to take a top-down approach when investing.

1. Macro-Thesis

2. Jurisdiction

3. Management

4. Resource

5. Financials

6. AHT Analysis

I'll use all the above when making a decision, and yes... I can still get it wrong at times, but until something I benchmark turns into a red flag I tend to ignore all the noise.

The only two mistakes I made when buying here (in my opinion) was discounting the possibility of being too early, and that was because lithium had already gone on a run, and then discounting the fact that we had an aggressive seller (Kabunga wasn't management, and I only looked into management as opposed to others).

It's difficult to time the market, if not impossible. So I'm not at all bothered about being too early. Rather than than too late.

Then looking at Kabunga, I should have done better in spotting an aggressive/toxic seller. I know what AIM is like (Bacanora Lithium springs to mind), but we're generally here to find those few companies that we believe will come good, and not randomly shoving money blindly into several companies hoping 'one of them hits'.

Many do treat this like roulette, but I certainly don't. Whether I talk this up, down, or not at all, it will eventually recover, because even turds float. So were I concerned, I'd wait it out until the market turned and then get my money back. But I'm not in this for that, and I'm not even remotely close to that stage. I'm buying more because I still see this coming good.

I ran a DCF on this, and based on the economics, and factoring dilution - I came to a price of around 66p a share in production. Then factoring in AIM, Tanzania, and less favourable dilution, I'm still calculating around 30p+.

But aside from what I've mentioned, I didn't pick anything up as a red flag to deter me from investing, and I still don't see anything today.

I do think you're a smart guy, AmTech...

But it's clear that you tried to trade this and got stuck in the mud, so to speak.

This comes with the territory when trading, and if you feel you were somehow "cheated" out of your profits because of a forward looking statement in an RNS, then feel free to make a complaint to the toothless FCA who probably won't do a thing because:

A. The FCA are toothless

B. It was a forward-looking statement.

The use of language is key in any RNS or official communique (as I've discovered first hand)

This is the ultimate risk in trying to time even a proportion of your investment - You'll seldom catch the top for a sell, or the bottom for a buy.

I'm not sure what you hope to achieve by become the resident moaning bar stool here.

Out of curiousity, Amtech:

What exactly is your exit plan here? Do you have a vague idea of where you're planning on cutting your losses, or even liquidating entirely? It's clearly not a case of throwing in the towel, because you probably would have done so already.

But that being said, you're still holding. I'm curious as to where exactly you plan on finally getting rid? Surely you can't be waiting for a some sort of turnaround because you bash this company daily, so it wouldn't make sense from your perspective to hold out until this company looks like a positive investment for you.

I think we all get that you don't like the use of the word 'imminent', and you don't like the silence. But if that changes do you suddenly become a bull? Or do you have a clear exit plan in sight?

I am.

And as much as I can. With all the selling, some of my buys are showing up as sells. Just a pity I don't have the liquidity to really take advantage of the impatience some people have.

We know we're waiting on infrastructure via road and power to be developed, and these in turn rely on BKT completing their financing.

Their financing is taking longer than expected because they opted to develop Phase 1 and 2 simultaneously (and thus requiring more money).

Of course it's annoying to wait in silence, and of course it's annoying seeing all the weak/stale hands selling which is depressing the shareprice. At the same time, it just rings buying opportunities for me. You don't make money following the herds. Herds always pile in on tops, and the only mistake I really made was initially depositing large sums in here at 5p, rather than waiting it out.

That being said, I expect the weak hands to bail here at somewhere around 2.5p-3.5p, which would likely be what these people deem to be an 'acceptable loss'. It's after that I think this will start to move once things get a move on.

Things taking longer than expected? Of course.

Negative news? No.

That's why I'm still buying. I'll let the naysayers have their day, which is why I've been quiet on here lately. But really and truly, there's not much to say until we see some newsflow.

I'm looking around both AIM, and other mining stocks on TSV/ASX, and am seeing things taking a battering left, right and centre. I'd rather have a depressed shareprice without seeing newsflow, than see a depressed shareprice AFTER newsflow.

It's always a case of "look at the shareprice, everyone will sell because of how they waited for so long!"

Well one of the beauties of micro-cap miners is even when that happens, new bulls enter and eat up all the sells, and the tired and haggered moaners will likely sell, say they were right all along, and then disappear as this company progresses and the shareprice begins to reflect progress.

We have no progress because we're still waiting on a Free-Carry agreement, and we're still waiting on the furthest developed company to pave the way. This isn't a unique situation - It happens in every 'new' mining areas. Government agreements first, then infrastructure, and then you'll see other follow suit. Better to be early and right, than be late.

Enjoy your bank holiday weekend!

That's because you'd be over the moon to have the amounts he has.

Elon Musk could have stopped at PayPal. Someone could easily have said to him: "Why don't you park those proceeds into bonds?".

It's all relative and everyone has their own separate ambitions and levels of comfort.

There's someone out there in poverty right now wondering why people aren't happy working 37.5 hours a week earning minimum wage with a roof over their heads.

Sick of answering the same questions over and over.

We wait for the Tanzanian Free-Carry Agreement to be signed, and then we talk :)

Yes Mizolgit.

He knows exactly how this company is run. With low Cash Burn, and minimal dilution.

Have you see the dilution over at Volt? Have you see the amount of Director Options being offered?

The recent placing at Volt is 1:1 Options and something like a 57.8% discount for the raise.

Of course he wants to fund Volt, because it's practically a lifestyle company.

Why would they need to explore the remaining areas before the first project is built?

They don't have the money to do a lot of things, and it's irrelevant if you don't need to do said things.

Further exploration can take place after phase 1 of the project is built, and graphite demands necessitate it.

That's from their website?

I don't believe they made an ASX announcement.

The entire graphite market is heavily down YTD, but many here think this is just an ACP related issue.

Again, the comms here are garbage, but we have the cash to last 3 years without having to raise for operational costs, alongside delayed, but still to come catalysts.

https://www.nmas.com.mx/nmas-focus/programas/nmas-focus/videos/suenos-mentiras-la-fiebre-litio

Unfortunately it's in Spanish

Been quite busy as of late, and have not had a chance to read their DFS yet.

But I did skim and find this little snippet:

1.8.2 Roads
Initial access to the Project Site will be via an existing public unsealed road. This road is
approximately 4.5 km long and begins at the Makanga Junction on the Ifakara to Mahenge Road. It is
currently a single lane road, approximately 3 m wide. It will be upgraded to a wider single lane
unsealed road. The Accommodation Village is also accessed from this road.
Future access to the Project Site will be via an alternative road that follows the route of an existing
dirt track. This route is approximately 8 km long, and a new dual lane unsealed road will be
constructed. Discussions have been held with the Tanzanian Road Authority (TARURA). TARURA
have reviewed the road route and indicated they will document and gazette it. The new road will be
known as the Faru-John Road and will also be for public use. It will also open new areas suitable for
resettlement and farming.
Other roads that will be created include:
? Process Plant and Mining Services Area access roads;
? Site administration and workshop access roads;
? Magazine access road;
? Mine haul roads; and
? Tailings filtration area access road.

Key phrase - PUBLIC USE

I recall having a discussion here with someone disputing whether these road projects will be for public use.

Well I guess that settles that.

Let BKT build that road so ACP can simply plug in to the existing network.

https://www.nmas.com.mx/nmas-focus/programas/nmas-focus/videos/suenos-mentiras-la-fiebre-litio

For anyone asking about Sonora.

Most of it is in Spanish. I've been getting a fair few requests from Mexican media with regards to Sonora lately.

@leathal1979

Just repeating myself the way AmTech does.

So what's your average, Amtech?

But what's your average, AmTech?

What's your average, Amtech?

Take a look at the notice of AGM over at Volt Resources:

https://www.investi.com.au/api/announcements/vrc/f4f2c3e8-9a3.pdf

Literally, it's all about performance rights and options. Even the conditions on the performance rights are ridiculous - All the Directors need to do is "remain in their jobs".

I bring this to your attention, because Asimwe Kabunga (a legacy director of ACP, and current Director of Volt Resources) who happens to hold around 4.5 Million ACP warrants expiring on Friday has been selling down heavily here over the past year, and is part of the reason why we are where we are.

I ask you to read the above document solely to see what we're getting rid of, and what we hopefully won't have to deal with moving forward.

I'm sure he still has some shares left (how he gets away with not issuing TR1's, I cannot fathom) - But he won't have another volley of warrants to sell into.

Many of us invested will be quite glad to see the back of him.

I think it's highly unlikely this will take another six years, where we'll need to start considering cashburn.

I do think we have the possibility of another six months to a year before we see this move past 5p again.

This is due to a combination of lack of news, lack of market appetite, and the graphite squeeze being predictably slow.