Member Info for debtnmarrijslave

If ICL only have a 1mtpa capacity, they don't have the economies of scale that SXX will do.

So in time, they and others will probably live to regret treating SXX like they have, especially as one of the many Sirius raison d'etres is massive global population (and hence food production, and hence market poly demand) growth to 2050-60 - meaning of course that to see Sirius as simply "taking a bite of the pie" is, again as it has been for many doubters, very very limited thinking given that "pie" could double in size in the next 20 years.

If the pre-ST2 35-40p level was an accurate indicator of perceived value before ST2 got sorted, then surely we should be back at 30p or so, once the bonds are confirmed sold and all the finance is complete.

Fingers crossed, in a few months, we'll be seeing comments on here from people whose lives/retirements have been changed by this project's continued success, and from those who have invested time and effort in communicating around the project on here, as well as those who have simply kept morale up, getting their just rewards.

I stand corrected then, scotman.

(Still) very optimistic about SXX.

Would love to be able to buy more, chilting. :-(

Spent my last gamble-able pound at 15.6p. I'm only here for morale related to the arduous journey to mount doom.

#Stupidfathobbits

It has indeed - it is just warming its chops up before it takes a big juicy bite out of the naysayers' toes in September.

Chilting, that's it - without production, all you've got is those projections and the ~40p average price target. The rest is sentiment.

LTHs could reasonably approach this rise with the same stoicism as the May drop.

As usual, GLA LTHs

Based on an average +0.04p per day movement on a trend line of reaching 40p avg broker target price in ~18-20 months, I reckon... (taps calculator).... 17.5 days exactly.

Just in my humble finger in the air estimation, of course.

GLA LTHs

Myo,

Yes, of course it's orchestrated - there's too much lunch money to be stolen. But it's all about where most money is to be made. If SXX LTHs can show that they're not an easy target and ignore the "scare stories", then the shorters'll buzz off and look for easier pickings.

The worst thing about SXX for me is the wait, which - barring being able to support in person this financially, but moreover socially, useful initiative - is of course a great situation to be in.

That was an eye-opener.

"They hope the longs will give up and sell their shares at the lowest possible share price."
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/2918951-g-hudson/1026551-how-the-big-players-manipulate-the-stock-market

******* shorts eh?

But the more they try to scare, the more it makes me think it's a good long term investment. Eventually, sxx'll start shipping, profits will start flowing, and the FTSE 100 will beckon. Then we'll see. If I was a short I'd be losing sleep over someone big coming in and pulling the trigger on a sp rise at some point.

Sorry, just remembered Google's my friend.

https://www.google.com/search?q=shorts+share+price+manipulation

"price manipulation"

How do they control the price? My simpleton's understanding is that if there was a queue of people offering more than 15p to buy them, they'd sell for more, wouldn't they?

So, are you saying they are insisting people pay them less for the shares than they are willing to pay?

Yep, that's the goak.

Google (and Myosotis) is your friend.

"It is contingent upon the completion of the full US$500mln bond issue, before 30 October 2019."

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/219328/sirius-minerals-launches-us38bn-markets-led-stage-2-project-financing-219328.html

Who knows, Scotman. Who knows...

Best of luck anyway.

And GLA LTHs.

You won't... Unless you expect significant capital appreciation in the short term. Could be at least a couple of months before the sp moves in mho, but I'm certain something unexpected (or just market sentiment that's virtually impossible to predict) could quite easily delay that a lot further.

Senior manager in fmcg ecommerce. I got a tip from a colleague back around 2015-2016, so LTH at average 19p.

Blimey, a limerick would have done!

John, re 15p ceiling, the tentative conclusion I come to is that the queues of people offering 16, 17, 18, 25, 40p for these shares currently are non-existent.
ie. You need a buyer and a seller. If the seller is willing to sell at 15p and additionally the buyers are not willing to offer more than 15p, then there's the cause.

My expectation is the same daily trudge through til September at least.

With respect, and maybe I'm misunderstanding the short trackers I'm looking at, May % has dropped into June.

A figure for % of shares which are shorts would only have dropped so substantially between May and June if none/very few of the new shares issued were shorted, right?

I'm quite hungover so apologies if I've misunderstood the calcs or anything.

Sorry, I'm confusing myself again.

It was the additional public share sale at 15p that diluted the shares. That is why the share price dropped to ~15p but marcap stayed at around 1bn. Additional capital would need to flow in to raise the sp from here. I think that'll happen from Sept.

The bonds they are currently trying to sell (by Sept) are separate, just hopefully regular corporate (what some call "junk") bonds that may get a "B" rating. They need to be sold to unlock the JPMorgan 2.5bn credit facility. Once that is done, the entire finance package for the build through to production is complete, including contingency funding.

FT article explaining all this... https://www.ft.com/content/e8e3371a-6be5-11e9-a9a5-351eeaef6d84