Member Info for debtnmarrijslave

Originally started in 2003, looking for potash in North Dakota, apparently.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sirius-minerals-backers-gamble-on-dirt-cheap-shares-rpw7g2zwl

Dunno! Was cheering on the good men and women on-site, tunnelling away :-)

Some half-decent recovery in the SP.

Come on you drillers :-)

Jupiter's bedded SXX and is now continuing the gentlemanly gestures and putting this lightweight but committed message out there in the news...

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/funds-etfs/2019/06/20/shares-i-love-sirius-minerals/

That 'gold' person yesterday....know-it-all silly billy.

Gold, last reply I'll make on the subject - you're aware of the massive contingency built into the funding aren't you?

*one-off ST2-related sells in Sept 2018 and Apr/May 2019, sorry.

For the last year, except for one-off sells in Sept and April, it has tracked parallel to the AIM all share (AXX).

What technicals say it's going to halve? I don't see the AIM halving so you must be talking about something absolutely huge which nobody is aware of (other than the bonds not being sold, which I think is generally seen as very unlinkely).

But same applies today from my recent posts as it has for the last few weeks. Sensible and committed long term view rules.

Speedy, it's not rocket science - it's capital being pulled from a non-growth SP to other places.

Most recent SP crash due firstly to the dilution being finalised at end of April, then more recently no news from the agm update which gave no clear signals that any additional drivers of business value was likely in the near future. Investors have responded very clearly to that agm.

But they'll be back in a couple of months. It's just painful in the meantime for LTHs.

Mines,

The picture I'm getting is

1. market traders and investors pulling money out of AIM / non-blue chip generally (see my earlier post comparing the 12-month AIM trend vs SXX - and yes, I do know SXX isn't on AIM but it still tracks that index, with their trends correlating very highly between Oct 2018 and March 2019) and
2. People specifically pulling money out of SXX because there is no prospect of a SP rise in the near future. My expectation is that that same money will start buying back in in August and Sept as the bond sale closure gets closer.
3. The dilution red alerts which caused two divergences of SXX trend from AIM in Sept 2018 and April 2019. Totally understandable how and why this was caused.

So I'm sitting tight and relying on the NPV, average target prices, validity of the project strategy, good progress of the mine being built already, and a bit of luck and expecting to be back here in October with the project fully on track operationally and financially, and the SP on or above 20p, at a guess.

GLA LTHs.

Scraggs, no, but that doesn't mean investment trends for SXX don't highly correlate to AIM.

Just tracking aim all share vs SXX for last 12 months, you can see where the SP value has been lost.

https://www.google.com/search?q=aim+all+share&oq=aim+all&aqs=chrome.4.69i57j69i61l2j69i60j0l2.6071j0j7&client=ms-android-huawei&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8#mie=c,/m/0961mr,FTSE%20AIM%20All-Share%20Index,AXX,INDEXFTSE,FTSE%20AIM%20All-Share%20Index,/m/0961mr,0|/m/0cl1q4r,Sirius%20Minerals%20PLC,SXX,LON,Sirius%20Minerals%20PLC,/m/0cl1q4r,1

1. Early Sept 2018
2. 30th April 2019

Otherwise, you can see the AIM all share clearly tracks SXX very closely between Oct 2018 and March 2019.

That tells me that market appetite for risk is a big factor in SXX sp down-trend, but that this was consolidated massively among any waverers in early Sept and late April.

The things that'll bring the SP back (ie capital being diverted back into SXX) and that's staying ahead of operation/build targets and the bond sale being completed.

There are (perfectly reasonably) too many nerves in the market to sustain the SP above the wider AIM trend currently. Stuff like dilution from ST2 will have an exaggerated effect on short-termists.

My guess is stuff like the Woodford episode is spooking investors away from not-yet-profitable ventures like SXX.

...at a guess are mostly from short-termers who invested looking for a quick buck who've realised it's not happening soon (probably because they didn't research things properly) and have now panic-sold at a loss.

Time to sit back, relax, and enjoy the journey.

GLA LTHs

...Long term, it's all gravy.

The shares are currently only worth 15p (ie with the risks of the bonds not being sold in Sept, and without there being any dividends currently).

So not really surprising where the SP is. Once the above two things change, watch the SP change.

...not.

Wish I had more to invest right now.

Hear hear. And generally thanks for your wisdom, wit and sociableness re SXX.

Alan, never say never but I don't plan to sell in my lifetime. As you said, it's too much of a likely alleviation of those strategic threats such as food scarcity for a growing global population.