Member Info for Debacle

I have sold out this morning on a 10% profit as I fear further falls this afternoon simply due to the US situation.

Likely I will come back in again shortly once things settle - hopefully at 34p again

And the name of this short ? and your evidence?

Deflection. Perhaps you shouldn't hassle anyone else on here for evidence for their opinions however ill considered or factually incorrect.

Indeed BrokeNSmoke I agree but this was not the point that we were debating.

The conclusion with all of us is not to pay to much creedence to the movements in short positions unless you observe existing declared shorts (i.e. over 0.5% ones) increasing their positions noticeably or new ones popping over 0.5% or the converse. All you can really observe is a direction of travel which, to be fair to T4G, he conceded earlier in the week.

T4G - clearly you are wrong and that is even if we ignore that the position taken before 4/5 could have been at a higher price. With 0.51% at 47.50 for arguments sake and a further 0.56% at approx 40p as at 10/5 you are only left with 0.59% which is bubbling around 34.5p. So 2/3 of holding roughly at 43.5p and 1/3 at 34.5p = rough average of 40.5p - current price 36.5p so roughly 4p profit per share

Pedro - calm it. T4G has already admitted that he may be wrong and to say he is lying is simply not true. It all just needs a bit of thinking through but, given, how keen he often is to dismiss other's statements, it is certainly relevant to pull him up and, I think, he will come through and admit he is mistaken and has not done sufficient mathematics to substantiate his claim.

Let's all be grown up here.

T4G - the only possible declared short position that you could be referring to is Eleva who first went over 0.5% on 04/05/23 (declared 0.51%) when the price was circa 47p. They increased to 0.82% on 8/5 when price was 43p odd and again on 10/5 when price was 37.5p odd, Admittedly their last 3 increases in June to take them to 1.48% all at around 34.5p odd ain't looking so smart today but anyone can see that overall they are doing fine

So again, please name the short and explain or.............................................................

T4G - just to remind you that unless you have some secret access, shorts only need to declare their position once they exceed 0.5% so you saying a short "only opened in the last couple of months" is probably incorrect. They could have sat around at 0.45% for many months before a position is made public which is when it crosses the 0.5% threshold.

It is beginning to get boring to keep correcting people around declared short positions so perhaps a direct quote from the FCA will help you to understand:-

"A public share notification must be made when the net short positions of shares reach 0.5% of the issued share capital of the company concerned, and again at each 0.1% change above 0.5%.

This change relates to both a 0.1% increase and decrease of the position (including each time the position drops below 0.5%). "

So, again, perhaps you will accept that you are likely to be wrong or name the short and explain.

Hi T4G - you have stated this today "Well at least one short is now currently sat on a loss so let's see what happens"

I cannot see how you can conclude this given discussions earlier this week. You might wish to withdraw that unless you can explain with confidence

Qube went to 0.49% on 14/6/23 so could just be a very small increase so not significant frankly

Pedro - your view is somewhat simplistic and ignores complex hedging strategies that us mere mortals cannot begin to fully appreciate

Certainly you can infer that if the largest position holders are reducing positions and some dropping below 0.5% then that is the direction of travel. If positions increase or a new player pops above 0.5% then the converse may be inferred.

Tradey - my figure is wrong insofar as this is actually the maximum that it could be for entities who have previously crossed the 0.5% threshold but hugely unlikely that this is the case but we also do not know who is opening positions so best not get too het up about the whole thang imho

Also, you only first declare when you cross 0.5% therefore the could be all manner of positions yet to cross the 0.5% threshold. So I conclude that we should all just ignore this stuff and stick to what we do know - all imho

It is hard to tell - you first declare a position once you cross the 0.5 threshold and increments of 0.1% upwards thereafter. Then you must declare the position once you drop below 0.5% but not again until you go back above - if you look at the FCA historical data there would appear to be a few recently just below 0.5% e.g. Qube went to 0.49 on 14/6/23 - there is no way of knowing whether this remains the case only when it next goes above 0.5%. Therefore, I suggest that using reduction in positions for the few companies over 0.5% has no great relevance whatsover

Actually that is incorrect I think but there are certainly a few floating around the 0.49 mark

Just to discuss actual short positions - I calculate that the total short positions including those below the 0.5% threshold is actually 13.48% via 29 different entities although this would not include any entity that has never crossed the 0.5% disclosure threshold so could be more

It is either a reaction against the doom mongering from Pedro or market maker manipulation as "Traded at 40p Good Grief" would have you believe lol. Either way, I am currently in profit so keep it up lads

We will still get an aggregated position just not individual positions so that'll probably do for your average Joe

A change from declaring a position at 0.1% to 0.2% is not exactly earth shattering