Member Info for Deal3r

Institution: Shares : Fund
Miton Trust Managers Limited 3,020,687 - Miton UK Microcap
Polar Capital LLP --- 5,714,286 -Polar Capital Biotech S Inc
Chelverton Asset Management Ltd 1,363,965 MI Chelverton UK Equity Growth B Acc
Woodford Investment Management Ltd 21,341,293 - Link (Blackrock) the old Income fund
Woodford Investment Management - 2,625,000 Omnis Income & Growth A Acc - Was a HL fund

yep - i spoke to someone involved in the COPD and Covid trial in Hull and they are not involved in the home trial, only Southampton. Now thats not to say they only select patients in the local area.

So I dont post that often and I do try not to look too much at the share price....

....It has been painful to do so. but.. let look at it another way and step back with some perpective.
If the original driver of this stock has been the COPD drug trial which has shown promise. There seems to be some indication that this could be a successful trial. The integrity is good, there is a large addressable market and the drug has show good theoretical benefit.
Then comes along COVID... Well the drug has show promise in 2013 with MERS which is another corona virus. The cross application seems obvious and the trial has been well managed. As with all bubbles, exuberance drive the stock up fast and disappointment hits it hard. I've seen it in the tech bubble before and we will see it again else where. Overlay this with a a major shareholder (Woodford) who any stock of his was sold down to well below value ( Dec 5.5p) and other holder who have seen a fast rise and a many multiple price increase as a chance to take a profit. And dont forget - it is never wrong to take a profit. So where are we now. Well we are 60% higher than where we were in mid March.

I know that is little solace to anyone who bought in the 60s but nothing has fundamentally changed since then. This will be driven by news and as ive said in posts months ago , the road will be rocky and investors abhor uncertainty (lack of news) and will fill it with plot and rumour.

despite this - Ive invested too much in this stock - its certainly less than it was a while a go, so i will try ( try) to check the price as little as often.

Ghia - The MS website is OK but the MS pro system is very good (£10k -£15k p.a) and provides data to organisations like the Investment Association ( the IA sectors). The holdings data ( and shareholder data) is one of the most comprehensive and importantly - up to date.

Ghia - Do you use the MorningStar system?

Capital accumulation limited 2.5% - Private Client Broker Nominee
Southampton asset management ltd 2.41% - INSIDER
Barclays private investment banking 1.56% - Probably Private Client Broker Nominee
Jarvis securities plc 1.49% - Private Client Broker Nominee
Barclays wealth & inv. mng. division 1.39% - Private Client Broker Nominee
Shares plc 0.96% - Private Client Broker Nominee
HBOS investment fund managers ltd 0.85% - not sure need to check them out.
Canaccord genuity whealt ltd 0.81%
Royal bank of Canada 0.77% - probably Private Client Broker Nominee
Equinity group ltd 0.71% - Registrars but also run an ex-o dealing service and sharesave schemes
Walker crisps asset mng ltd 0.71% - Private Client Broker Nominee
A J bell holding ltd 0.7 % - Private Client Broker Nominee
Charles Stanley & co ltd 0.56% - Private Client Broker Nominee
Redmayne Bentley llp 0.35% - Private Client Broker Nominee
Idealing.com 0.31% - Private Client Broker Nominee
Deutsche bank private invst 0.29% - Private Client Broker Nominee
HSBC global asset mngt 0.26% - Institution
Puma investment mngt ltd 0.22 % - Institution

Sharesting - I estimate that Lansdowne will have sold a max of 12m shares since 11th May.

I counted on the back of an envelope c36m shares have traded since 11th March. An institution will not have traded more than about 1/3 daily volume. If anyone has better figures on total vol traded since then it will give a rough max of what has been sold. Massive caveat - that assumes that they were 1/3 vol every day. Many PI investors will have also sold out as the price drops so may be less.

If on the 19th March I said you can have a 28% return in 10 weeks would you take it?

This highlights the difference between punting/ trading and investing.

Everyone has their own motivation and time horizons. To some their central investment thesis has not changed and the movement since mid March is noise and they are still x% ahead of where they were only a few weeks ago.

It's all a matter of perspective.

Ghia - I take commission or a performance fee, or a pint when the pubs reopen!!!!

Is it me or have I been reading the FinnCap note wrong.

I thought it was £1.20 price target and a rise of £2.40 from there on the successful out come of the trial. - £3.60.

Laughton

I've had a bit of a relook at this and I shall change a couple of points from what I said.

"I understand that the funds exposure to Writers share of performance and producer royalties is c3.0% and Writers share of performance; 0.8%." - This relates to NAV value of those rights and so does not give any indication on performance income.

The income impact from the drop in performance fees ( which also includes pubs / restaurants which I had not appreciated ) will be higher c15% of income than I thought, however, they expect much of this to be offset by much greater subscriber growth of streaming services like Spotify.

The stock will go up then come down...... nothing much will happen.

Best investors i ve seen are wholly dispassionate. Once fear, hope and greed take hold.. it clouds judgement.

So - I can't disclose the source however to answer your other questions - the figures are correct and the percentage relate to the value of the rights.

Where does the funds income come from? The fund buys all sorts of song rights, it may be a producers, a song writer or and artists full entitlement. Each time a song is performed on the radio or streamed it generates an income. The CBR ruling which i reference is the rate received from Spotify etc. So future returns are correlated to Streaming growth ( Spotify, Apple music Resso and Amazon Music etc) There are c 300m monthly subscribers. It is projected that by 2030 there will be 1.15bn subscribers.

The fund is also adept at making the assets work harder - licencing the music in adverts films etc.

Finally they are able to collect the royalties more efficiently.

Ghia - Its years since I worked in it, so may have changed. but.....

At the end of the day when the market closes all live orders would expire unless you wanted to take part in the closing auction.
That might mean flattening of someones position or book or someone needing to get a trade done, but if some has an order on it may get crossed in the auction..
I always was suspicious of auctions with low volume as it is unrepresentative of where the actual market is. I never took part in them and was only for FTSE100 and some FT250 stocks.

That is interesting, however I doubt there will be a huge impact on the fund. I understand that the funds exposure to Writers share of performance and producer royalties is c3.0% and Writers share of performance; 0.8%.

I think the more important aspect is if the independent valuers change the discount rate which they apply to the assets. If it is decreased by 1% from 9% ( which I think there is some evidence they might) it will +£100m to NAV or 16p.

Also the CRB ruling which increased songwriter royalty rate from 10.5% to 15.1% by 2022 is likly to be more significant.

Currency has a bigger impact on the price and so accounted for -6.4p and NAV movement from sept '19 to Jan 2020.

so the closing price is generally the last traded price - which in this case was the uncrossing of the order book in the closing auction. £9k of trades uncrossed at 53.50p.
So a bit of context - the stock open this morning and the first trades were B @ 56.60p and sales @55.67p.. trades went on through the day and in the last 10 mins trade was conducted at B @56.60p and sales @55.67p.
I would expect the screens to show the market up tomorrow morning - but trades being conducted at 55.5 - 56.5p.

The opening and closing auctions can throw up odd or unrepresentative pricing.

HI Ghia

I read this as a general article on drug trial design.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3083073/

I suspect that if this trial fails, the firm won't proceed with the COPD element and will probably fold the firm.