Member Info for Deal3r

Are we sure it isn't this

https://www.fr24news.com/a/2020/07/osteoporosis-drug-could-be-reused-to-fight-covid-19-scientists-say.html

prefer diamonds

I make no apology in reposting the presentation of results. I think it gives some colour of what people are investing in.

https://www.synairgen.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/200720-Synairgen-data-readout-final-version.pdf

No need to move from AIM - The company will and should be focused on regulatory approval for SNG001 rather than 'corporate matters'

CT Exactly. I would hope this publicity and maybe tailwind would recuite GP practices in hot spot areas.

Difficulty is the at risk groups tend to be elderly and less or not as able to engage remotely

I would be cautious about home trial coming out this summer. My impression from the conference call last Monday was that they were well short on numbers.

Let hope this publisity will recruit more onto the trail.

I'm never 100% sure about anything.

The mark up will be significant at what ever the exact price.

The event to drive the stock is what will the regulator decree. Worst outcome would be to do an additional trial but I think it's unlikely. A more likely outcome is conditional approval to allow sale at cost plus a died mark up but to continue to collect data.

The release of the Cops data will add weight.

Nothing firm just my thoughts

No. Too many uncertainties.

Many institutional investors do not know either.

I spoke to two this week and there can be a huge range of possible outcomes but a couple of things I learnt.

It costs £10s to produce each dose and they would price it between the current drugs on offer. C£1500 -£3000 a go.

Ghia - Hear hear.

Eva - Welcome back! I thought you had hung up your boots. I would do the same. I think this has further to run.

So there is a view that many risks have now receded. That why a few II Invested after the news came out. But new risks come to the fore the main one of which is execution risk. Regulatory risk is an issue. Will they only get conditional approval, is can sell the drug for a reduced price and have to collect further data.

for people who missed it here is some light reading over the weekend. This shows what you are investing in.

https://www.synairgen.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/200720-Synairgen-data-readout-final-version.pdf

Does any one have a link to the presentation from Monday's call to journalists?

'off the strip' - forgive my trader ignorance and I was a trader for 6 years!

98% - had to raise some cash to pay for stamp duty on a house move. ( My wife made me do it!)

So here is a recap of what I'm thinking.

The news out this week was significant and better than what could have been expected in that there is a clear and significant response from the drug.

From anyone who listened to the press call from Monday may have been disappointed in that they did not vocalise that an end point of the trial had been reached. Two points come from this- having spoken to a II in this stock I think that this is a red herring as they there was no specific end point set but more importantly there is a definitive improvement on the ordinal scale i.e people show real biological improvements (rather than statistical demonstration of a reduction in viral load).

From this point the stock de-risked and II came in - the drug works. But risks remain - Execution risk is now much higher on the scale. Can RM deliver? There are lots of unknowns - Will the regulator license the drug with under an emergency and with conditions. The pros will mean that they can start selling the drug at Cost Plus a margin, but will have conditions imposed ( like collect further data). They may also instruct further research trial to take place.

I tried to find out about pricing - one thought was that it may price at anything up to £1500 a dose, with a course of 14 doses in a treatment. The cost of manufacture would be c £10-15 a dose. I see that as unlikely in the short term.

I think i shall hold for now.

So the Finn Cap research compared SNG001 to both Avonex and Rebif and modeled out at a similar price point to come to £1-2bn

https://bnf.nice.org.uk/medicinal-forms/interferon-beta.html

A few will be trimming.

Chelverton UK Growth fund have trimmed their holding after the price rise.

I trimmed my SONG.l to add here - I wouldn't mind topping that back up.

RK Sigma - Welcome

Excellent trade so far. As for the future, it glib to say no one knows but no one knows.

Finn Cap suggest that it should be priced at £3.60 in the short term, but if they start get orders in before or with speedy approval you can name your price depending upon many different metrics for valuing the stock. E.g if they sell 1m doses at a price of $2000 each. The market cap will be many billions.

They may also struggle to get the drug through phase III trial. So there are many uncertainties.

Mr Big -Not everyone has access to the broker research.

Must arrange a pint or two once the dust settles

They bought below £1 this morning but took part in the fund raise in March. They held it across some of their VCTs.