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Annual report
https://www.trakm8.com/wp-content/uploads/Trakm8-Annual-Report-March-2023.pdf
Reckon you may be in the right ball park. Yes, they have told us it is coming (well, they are confident of it) but why H2 and not earlier? As I posted before, sounds like a major trial is happening and I guess contracts take time to be drawn up. Makes me think it is an existing client and this is an add-on, hence the confidence.....
Broker note is at https://wp-allenby-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2023/07/20230704-Trakm8-Holdings-plc-TRAK.L-Allenby-Capital-Finals.pdf?c3757=on - was updated on the 4th. Doesn't really say much and keeps forecast/fair price the same (38p). Debt at the end of the year seems significantly down so that is a positive (if I read that correctly).
It was good to see some upwards direction but would have been great for a director to buy. Guess we have to wait until the next update zzzZZZ zzzZZZ
One assumes they must have a signifcant trial on to be confident of getting a software contract over the line in H2. Shame about the reduction in fleet (everyone else apperars to be increasing their fleet numbers). And yes, there is always something throwing a spanner in the works.
Unless they delay to do a Friday RNS in which case we are all doomed. But seriously, 3 months of the current financial year now done, so a good impression of what the outlook will be.
I'm going to call it first......I usually am optimistic about these things and it goes the opposite way. So, my prediction is a massive share price decrease tomorrow because of a single word in the TU (with 99% of the TU being amazing) - probably the word 'hope' e.g. we hope that ..... maybe my dire prediction will kick start the recovery ;o)
GLA
One thing for sure is you need a really thick skin to be a shareholder, and given you are one of the few remaining long term holders, I'd say you are very (possibly over) qualified.
For the sake of conversation..... what are the potential issues here? I would say
i) The debt. Given the recent increases in interest rates, how is Trakm8 handling that - one assumes (and as mentioned by Pianasta), the staff cuts have come at the right time.
ii) Their mention of being concerned with the Ukrainian situation and increase in re-insurance costs etc. How will these things affect Trakm8 - e.g. does renewal hikes in price put off drivers from using PAYG/UBI? Are they already affecting Trak?
iii) Some nice 'partnerships' being annouced, but some are for c.40 units - so are they being selective about what they announce or are they telling us that these are as good as it gets?
iv) No director share purchases - ok, they did the CLN but surely someone could buy and show confidence
v) No obvious results from the CMD - where are these investors - surely, someone has done their due-diligience?
vi) If NoSugar is right about the £100k per week, then why doesn't the market see that (Efficient Market Theory at play?)
vii) Why hasn't Microlise made an offer? Based on Raza's comment that Trak were not in the same space as Microlise, and that Microlise want to invest in opportunites that expand their remit (or abroad) then why has this not come about.
viii) What happened to the automotive smart breakdown stuff (not just the AA) - market didn't want it, or device unreliable or other?
FWIW - I think they will come good - hence why I continue to hold.
Broadband company CityFibre has fitted its fleet of vans with Trakm8’s RH600 4G integrated telematics camera.
https://www.whatvan.co.uk/news/2023/cityfibre-vans-equipped-with-trakm8-telematics-system
No idea of how many units, but company appears large.
Allenby update has no change 38p
"FY trading update: H2 profits more than offset H1 "
https://wp-allenby-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2023/05/Allenby-Capital-TMT-Update-02.05.23-ENSI.L-TRAK.L-SPSY.L-TERN.L-MBT.L.pdf?c3609=on
Allenby update - again, nothing much and fair price not changed (38p)
https://wp-allenby-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2023/04/Allenby-Capital-TMT-Update-24.04.23-MWE.L-TRAK.L-TERN.L-CLCO.L.pdf?c3592=on
This contract is expected to generate revenues in excess of GBP6m over the first three years.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TRAK/contract-award-5ngs2sc6yks5g62.html
Up to 150 R600s.....
https://www.trakm8.com/news/eurocoaches-partners-with-trakm8-to-improve-fleet-safety/
Nothing much
"The renewals with Iceland and Sainsbury's demonstrate the value that Trakm8 brings increasing delivery capacity and efficiency in the highly competitive food retail market.
No change to forecasts and fair value of 38p/share"
https://wp-allenby-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2023/04/Allenby-Capital-TMT-Update-03.04.23-TRAK.L-ENSI.L-TERN.L.pdf?c3579=on