Member Info for dazzle1000

Asp5 ® 28 Apr 22 - 11:40 - 2598 of 3114

just checked the 2021 results call (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497142-diversified-energy-company-p/c-decpf-ceo-rusty-hutson-on-q4-2021-results-earnings-call )

re the US listing - this is what rusty said

"We also are looking hard at the U.S. markets and the potential for an ADR, do the listing, that will be a tremendous focus for us as we go through 2022."

So no target date specified as I mistakingly metnioned in my previous post, but certainly a work in progress.

While looking up the above, the following quote from Rusty caught my eye:

"And let me be very clear about the dividend. Under no circumstances is our dividend ever in jeopardy, we will never cut our dividend. We will always grow our dividend. As we grow, do acquisition, we'll always grow our dividend. That's part of our plan at the way we return. Cash to our shareholders, we told them we would, and we will continue to do that. We feel that 11% dividend yields are pretty hefty dividend yield and so we can use excess cash to acquire assets. We can use excess cash to buy back stock, if necessary. We can do a lot of things with that cash, but the dividends will always be a crucial part of the business and we'll continue to grow it as we grow the business."

This helps to clarify the 40% or 30% FCF assumption from the analysts. Reading between the lines DEC will grow the dividend but if yields continue above 11+% will moderate that growth (so FCF% may reduce) however if / when share price appreciates the 40% FCF target is still in play. Seems a perfectly sensible way to go and again hints at share price appreciation potentially using excess cash for share buy backs at these low levels.

Have to say I missed this when listening first time around.....

Starting From 2023:

Pre share 20-1 ratio split

June/July - 200,000

Sept - 1,163,054

Oct/Nov. - 5,470,000

Post share 20-1 ratio split

Dec/Jan. - 435,109 (8,702,180)

Feb 15th. - 140,500 (2,810,000)

Glad to see rusty being creative..well done fella hope the figures help

Dazzle

Didn’t rusty mention in a recent interview that he sees buybacks as a defo priority at the moment, but the difficulty is getting the extra coffers to pay for them. So he's looking at CREATIVE ways to keep the momentum going in buying back shares…

Dazzle

@clued (up)

Nope just interested in stuff.. it is definitely a transition tech for better things to come thats all I'm saying. Just that some tech like Stanley Mayers hydrogen water powered buggy. He turned down a $billion offer from the powers that be?. The rest is history make of it what you will.

Dazzle

Something of interest

https://youtu.be/sVgY9pcYAL8

https://youtu.be/F9E65EJftL4

https://youtu.be/D0Dk4pIYIs4

https://youtu.be/-ugB_nK-Mu0

https://youtu.be/l6cxYnWTFi0

And not forgetting the late great stanley mayer hydrogen fuel cell buggy over 30yr technology… a legend god bless him..

https://youtu.be/staL1wr07Sg

https://youtu.be/yc_tMGJh43w

Toyota and mazda are very keen on this new revolutionary plasmoid thunderstrom generato technology invented by Malcom bendall a game changer…. Think what catalyst converters do to minimise CO2 put on a whole different Star Wars level to reduce it to 0 and oxygen so pure is like the Swiss Alps..

Also AFC are doing Dakar rally (which prince William attended and drove a car to test the hydrogen powered vehicle). It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure ( if all goes well, and the tech doesn't get suppressed and shelved by the powers that be) where this is all heading…

Dazzle

I am surprised no one has mentioned hydrogen as a new potential gas resource from the West, Virginia Senate presentation. As I remember hydrogen has four different components. Ie different types of gases and this in my opinion WILL leapfrog over EV’s just check out Toyota’s hydrogen back IP catalogue, don’t forget the new plasmiod- thunderstorm experiment technology that can reduce CO2 to next to nothing but oxygen (making waves through the technology world and Internet. Check out. YouTube is creating quite a stir). oil and gas is here to stay for a bit while longer.

Dazzle

DEC is ticking all the right boxes above the call of duty, trail blazing and raising the bar for others to follow. Cant help thinking though DEC were targeted or were made to be a patsy for more nefarious woke agendas. I seriously hope we do get rerated later on in the year after next results.

Just a reminder about DEC paying for divvies.. rusty did mention a few times in interviews that by hedging in a stable environment they can secure a fair ole wack of revenue to support the divvy and if i remember correctly from a while back rusty did point out that 40% of fcf would defo be going to divvy no matter what. As long as the S.A.M business model keeps on a working and paying off the other bills, I'm still happy to reinvest for time being. Not sure how long DEC will stay at these low prices now that they have proven themselves worthy and setting the gold standard using state of the art tech to minimise/reduce methane gas leaks as well as educating others in helping reduce theirs to.

Thanks for the link coolbeans44

I checked out the web site for bridgerphotonics and looks really the biz. Upto dater tech ….the link i found is a comparison of bridger photonics tech and the EPA’s out dated regime that DEC mentioned in their letter…this just confirms DEC commitment going above and beyond ( unlike other lazy or dodgy companies in which DEC kindly used better wording ) that didn’t or blatantly not bother with for what ever cost cutting penny pinching profit reason.

https://www.bridgerphotonics.com/blog/how-much-can-operators-save-using-gas-mapping-lidar-emissions-detection

Dazzle

Fordtin 2 Feb '24 - 11:39 - 7825 of 7856

My interest in buybacks isn’t really about supporting the share price, that should look after itself when the sellers run out of shares to sell. My focus is partially about the potential savings stemming from not paying dividends on cancelled shares.

But it’s mainly about the consequent increase in asset value per share.

Taking Stifel’s “estimate of DEC’s NAV amounted to 3,116p per share “ as an example;

Buying back 10% of the shares at an average of £10 would increase NAV/shr to £33.51

Buying back 20% of the shares at an average of £10 would increase NAV/shr to £36.45

Buying back 30% of the shares at an average of £10 would increase NAV/shr to £40.23

I doubt they could get to that level without running out of sellers at that price. I also suspect such a scale of buybacks would result in a short squeeze long before they got to that level and provide you with all the share price support you could ask for.

With NAV increases of that magnitude, I’m ok with a 10% decline rate until the SP recovers sufficiently to raise funds for future acquisitions, at an acceptable price. (i.e. a price whereby any acquisition increases the NAV/shr more than further buybacks can).

In the mean time, the buybacks will have saved a considerable sum through not paying dividends on the cancelled shares.

Fordtin 2 Feb '24 - 10:22 - 7823 of 7856

The CEO currently owns 2.53% of the company and his percentage is growing with every buyback. He's also got a shed full of options.

I wouldn't object if he wanted to increase his holding, but I reckon he's already got enough skin in the game to align his interests with the rest of the shareholders.

Fordtin2 Feb '24 - 09:28 - 7821 of 7856

At the current SP, the cost of buying the remaining 4,082,238 shares authorised under the current buyback program would only be £37,260,630.

I'd like to see them raise the authorisation to at least 15% of shares in issue.

Even purchasing 20% of the shares in issue at current SP, they still wouldn't exceed the currently authorised max spend of £97.4M!

Thanks for the link bluemango and highlighting the West Virginia house bill 5076, of common sense…should put back in a vast amount of factual credibility for DEC’s ARO and more importantly highlight the fact that not all non-producing wells are depleted and ready to be plugged. just shut of waiting for higher gas prices and or work overs for production efficiency purposes…yes there will be a few that are abandoned and need plugging but thats expected and being taken care of beyond the call of duty like DEC are doing…it only goes to show the idiocy and ineptitude of so called educated people who have agendas for their woke sick selves or the companies they work for…smell it a mile away, but why do people put up with such BS?.. only time will tell and hopefully this madness will surpass and we can look back in a decade time after learning a lot of lessons (again) “for evil and wilful blindness to suffice, is for good people to do nothing.”

DEC has a great business model, all it has to do is keep steady and pay off that debt, hedge future gas prices to generate those dividends, and when suitable sell some more of those non-core assets and plug a few more abandon wells as well as third party (more income)…another 8 years to go until debt is payed off..

Dazzle

Haven't posted for a while but have been invested in DEC for over a year, and keeping tabs on DEC for a few years…

Have to say good job to those who are fighting back at the wokery loony bins. Their objectives stink of their odorous intent. No fact base common sense like the magnificent OAK BLOAK, whom some of us less mortals owe a debt of gratitude, for not loosing our heads in this financial panic (when all else is loosing theirs in fear, and the contrarian wiser investor is hoovering up the goodies) if you haven't got an objective outlook then what ever doubting Thomas syndrome is causing you to loose money should be a marker not too invest and leave it to others (fund managers etc ) to do the work for you. No use screaming and shouting like a two year old because you cant grasp the financial fundamentals that DEC have laid out..

Kudos to you brave soldiers fighting that evil tyranny in here with its false propaganda keep it up lads and ladettes…

Will add though that yes the financial mood at the mo it seems is scurrying away from holding steadfast, the ilk of those making a quick buck joe rather than slow and steady long term with wiser acumen behind themselves speak volumes..

Who in here bought lots more when covid-19 hit in march 2020, When DEC hit 55p? Like warren Buffet said if you don't know why your are investing in a company and its business model then your destined to loose money based on emotions than fundamentals. If you want safe/safer then start an investment group of like minded people and put it into bricks and mortar, but then i would argue have you the patience for that relative piece of string..

I would recommend going onto worldius wideium webicus dotus investopedia dototus commicus

https://www.xxxxxxxxxxx .com/terms/e/ebitda-margin.asp

https://www.xxxxxxxxxxx .com/articles/fundamental-analysis/09/free-cash-flow-yield.asp

As this is what rusty put on the latest rns figures, funny enough it does help!

Best regards dazzle

Hi all appreciate the posts very much and would like to add my thoughts, i did read a while back that if DEC didn't hedge and just relied on spot price alone it would pay more taxes the higher the spot and profits etc.. by hedging and DEC only goes so far upto around $4.50 they pay a lesser tax bracket, even though the gas prices went higher. DEC are not greedy But sensible .. to my understanding if the hedge say at $3 and it went to $4 (with in the contract to who ever they are hedged) they would owe a paper loss for the difference but would off set this as a tax loss ( maybe one for agricore to correct me if i’m wrong) on a plus note reducing the decline gas methane rate down to 4% and saving on old retired wells down from $23k to $21 by buying the companies that retires them reducing costs and creating revenue…as well as using brand spanking new state of the art technology to see the actual methane leaks and measure these leaks and fix them etc ..

Thanks to scratch49 post 18:46 today pointing out another fund manager has DEC on their list, which makes two so far

1: CQS NEW CITY HIGH YIELD FUND LTD (NCYF) AND 2: ABRDN EQUITY INCOME TRUST PLC (AEI) Both of which do a nice divvy i think they are based in UK so no currency conversion cost for yah isa or sipp to worry about to some extent.

Also found this article in seekingalpha from august 2022 https://seekingalpha.com/article/4528966-emeth-value-capital-diversified-energy-co-an-esg-business-hiding-in-plain-sight . Should give some insight into what you guys have been discussing over the last few days..

Regards dazzle

Et al about the fracking i think some of you missed my point and have taken it to a different direction…so apologies if i didn’t fully explain what i was trying to get at… tomco\valkor will profit from sale of the sand which will hopefully depending on which type/s they will prioritise from mining either “FRAC SAND” or “SILICA” etc… as well as USA still fracking for mainly gas, which a big chunk to be exported to the UK….

Asimpleinvestor
Thanks for the update, good that you posted more info as i only read/caught it in the December 7th daily mail. You seem to be more on the ball with this stuff…so the England geology not best for fracking then..

Anyone else not find the knew news yesterday in the daily mail regarding rishi sunak negotigating a deal with the USA for “fracked GAS” (all the while hypocritically banning fracking in the U.K.) joining a few dots and T’s its not rocket science (unless you haven’t done your due diligence or research) as we all know, frac/silica sand is the second most needed and rarer resource on the planet as it needs to be more hexagonal than (normal spheretical sand) to be used down the wells.

As we know this rarer sand is at this point mostly situated to be easily mined in utah, and who have been buying up the most best bits? I am also excitied for the USA infrastructure bill in part being designated to resurfacing, roughly 20,000 miles of road, plus bringing back and adding too the rail terminals once made redundant and now brought back too life to help utah freight/transport the oil a little bit cheaper than tanker trucks.

Just food for thought

Talais30 Nov '22 - 17:25 - 28902 of 28942
The drills that valkor are targeting are for heavy below 12 API which is rare, using huff and puff drilling , the oil is in the region of $300 a barrel .
……………………………………………..
Im glad someone is listening and watching what is being mentioned to the utah committee, also here are more positives
1: 50%> recovery rates on insitu oil, maybe open mined aswell
2: if the oil is both the same heavy oil insiti and open mine then $300pb i think steven byle mentioned this as the MDO oil
3: sand/ frac and or silica $40- $100 pt
4: asphalt bitumen at premium $650+

From what i have been reading over on ADVFN board either Tomco BoD is full of BS and we get shafted by xmas or santa rings us a great xmas deal leaving us debt and carry free obligations for a big chunk 50% to 80% of greenfield. Investors should know more at AGM

Why would valkor sell off their 50% of green field the other year to tomco, the land is more valuable than valkors 25% share in tomco was 29% before more dilution. Doesn’t make sense to me… the “ non-equity funding package“ is soley designed for tomco to keep control and most of its assets (which is the 15,000 acre of land..) so to me they will sell of a percentage of this land to raise the FULL MONTY FUNDS. I guesstimate around 7500- 11250 acres to make it worth while unless the land is a premium ( frac sand and asphalt bitumen prices are significantly higher now) which would give tomco a slightly better negotiation advantage to retain more land due to it being a premium, frac sand/silica is second most rare and needed resorce on the plant due to global infrastructure demand, so it does make sense somewhat..

I would suggest people research on this type of funding as mentioned in the RNS “ non-equity funding package “ in a nut shell it means TomCo still hold most of their cards with out diluting with shares or giving away all of their main assets. So my two cents worth i have concluded that Tomco will sell a chunk of there roughly 15,000 acres on/near or around the asphalt ridge near vernal, Utah. What % of their land acerage they will give away to i think possibly Ecoteq or another similar co from over the pond. Tomco stated they are looking at 2 x 6000bode for at least 5yr to 10yr so this needs a bug chunk of land out of their 15,000 ( not including ths2 720 acerage) this i assume is open mine part 0 to 500 ft down roughly. We know from steven byle mentioned that the ridge covers 30bn oip with a minimum recovery rate of 50%> possibly going to 60% or 70% (he did sound confident of this to the utah committee ) so for minimum conservative number lets use 50% recovery rate so that leaves 15bn split into 7bn open mine (dont forget extra sand sale from this) and 7bn insitu which makes sense that in the recent Tomco RNS another 14 x insitu wells needed at a certain spacing (mentioned by steven byle/oil engineers) so this is to me seems to be ALL of the funding required and some more for the extra x2 6000k plants plus instu wells plus$16.5 mill for 90%tsh2 and the valkor 10% tsh2 loan which might not be needed if the extended warrents get cashed in this could pay towards that or in part…..

Just my thoughts. Anyone with a math brain plz do the sums and calculate roughly what area a 2x6k plant will need in acerage…so to leave from the 15, 000 acres tomco needs to run x2 6k plants?