Member Info for dazzle1000

@trek and tazed

I agree with your sentiments, i am just hoping that DEC stick to their SAM model and pay off the debt by selling non- core assets like last time. Got a funny feeling they will rinse and repeat this again in last 4th quarter into January where the 2.4 shares will be issued based on the last RNS acquisition. Hoping for a higher support to stabilise above £11.50 based on the monthly chart. Imho

Dazzle

3x more huge trades this wed, tues gone and last friday all over 500k, one being over 600k all after hours UT trade.

The latest acquisition with issuing 2.4 million shares is roughly the equivalent ofDEC buying 3800 shares a day for 2.5 years and that’s if they don’t acquire any more assets with issuing any more shares which is now 49.7m roughly. And there is only 261 working days in a year to buy BB. Imho

Dazzle

4 huge trades this morning

1; 10k

2; 11k

3; 27k

4; 11k

Yep someone wants in

11-Jul-24 16:35:14 1,174.00 52,359 Buy* 1,175.00 1,176.00 614.69k UT

That is £12.2m in old money bought £11.74 and the 64% rise didn’t even make it into the top LSE risers?

Someone wants in for sure. This should will spook the shorters …

@jim800

We will see jim, i have been pretty spot on with these candle gaps/windows. Of course they are not 100% certain but are a good indicator.. i hope you are right and DEC does break out into a new range. I roughly calculated that both window/gaps up are equaled to around 60c and should eventually be closed if not tomoz by end of next week in the NYSE. Yes I'm sticking my neck out a bit Imho.

Dazzle

3750@ 5pm

Tazed and notrex et al.

Not to sure who follows who the U.K. then USA or vice verser, but looking at the USA market it has gapped up twice since 5th july…opening higher on the 8th then again today, the 11th. So 2 gaps to be potentially filled? The 5th july candle had a high of $13.60 (£10.53) roughly. Not saying that the UK share will follow it exactly, but its good to see the UK DEC share try and break out above the £12 upper range of the side ways channel.. there was a fat finger spike this morning via my ii account chart from £11 to £11.96, but not showing on my other charting app strange? Will see if the momentum carries tomorrow, would like to buy in slightly lower if possible as i recon 64% was a dangling carrot overshoot for us to sell to USA. Imho

Dazzle

@terrym1 et al.

Yes i agree with you that rusty has over jumped somewhat buying assets. But with out going to mad worrying about it and loosing all sense of investment acumen. Pause for a moment and think why am i invested in this? We all have our own reasons, i am standing by what i said in a couple of previous post and give it till quarter 4, if rusty has not done anything to keep to a good sensible plan (and i encourage joe blog investor to write email to DEC via doug kris) for starters or a recorded delivered formal letter of complaint /concerns? For some this will seem like blah blah blah whats the point. I know most in here are genuinely peeved off and frustrated, some are not for investing at all imho. It is what it is and we have only so much knowledge and say in the matter, less if you don’t vote at agm’s ect.. be proactive, there is 47.316m shares ( if BB are still in the game each day it will eventually make a mark) less shares on market more divy money saved each quarter there after for ever (never say never) and this should go to either adding to existing shares as divy or paying down debt faster..all if’s and buts i know, it’s all we go to go on for now…

Dazzle

Maybe they will pull off another last minute asset sale and pay off another chunk of debt with non-producing assets?

If like terrym1 keeps mentioning that rusty does not care about f-all but gas, gas and more gas regardless of debt mounting up (seems very flatulent to me lol) that does not seem a good captain of the ship does it and would certainly raise red flags to other ii institutions and high end investors to jump ship (even those the % sholders list has gone up to 75% owned) i was . Yes there are warning signs to look out for in the game of smoke and mirrors of investing etc…like politics you never get what you vote for and things change at a whim when you least expect it.. i was in at £1.05 old money last year and managed to average down to 57p, had the chance to sell a couple of times over the last few months for a couple of hundred quid profit here and there and buy back cheaper with more shares and slightly improved divy income (even tho it has been decimated) batter than nothing..

DEC was doing well before its expansion in buying more wells roughly before end of 2022-2023(be it, the recent asset sell off for 200mil in jan to pay off debt) the debt seems to be growing with recent acquisitions, will that generate more fcf? Could DEC sell off non-core assets, like before? Imho

Dazzle

Lotm-13 and clued (hedges)

Looking at the recent may 2024 presentation DEC shows this formula of decreasing hedges % over a period of time. From memory isn’t un-hedge gas taxed slightly different to hedge? If so maybe the reason is because the premium cost in hedge % are less efficient than the current TAX of un hedged. Im just throwing this out there imho. I would like to see the Dividend grow higher in proportion to FCF and as net DEBT is reduced, i remember the doug kris podcast interview early this year where he mentions quite smuggly that DEC debt will be halved by 2026.

Dazzle

@tazed

Just for fun, i wouldn't sell DEC for under £2 old money (£40 in todays value) as it reached a high of £1.40 last year on more shares and slightly more debt with less acquisitions.. thinking of it i recon £4 to £6 in old money off the bat..unless those 5000+ suppressed patents in renewable energy are unleashed then gas will be in short supply and high demand in the transitional period of renewables…( unless of course the vulcans or annunaki pop across too our galaxy and lend a hand, sponsored by loreal, in case were worth it) my avg is 57.5p in old money as i see a growth recovery play here, i’ll give it to end of year to see those sp rerates budding and blooming into next spring…would say too look out for those other new sectors like Ai and EVTOL breaking through into new ground. Boeing have invested a fare chunk into the EVTOL over the last couple of years…imho

Dazzle

Cheers tazed, vey much appreciated.

Seems like the figure has gone up since you last posted. General public figure seems interesting to keep a keen eye on too.

Hope some of you more braver traders out there took the plunged and traded the gaps/windows candlestick pattern.

Looks like the candlesticks are in a sideway consolidation period channel looking roughly between £10.50 to £11.90.

Hopefully the next lot of financial quarterly figures will will DEC chipping away slowly and steadily at there financial goals as laid out in the may 2024 presentation, not sure if ALL will be met and surpass expectations lets keep our ears and eyes to the ground and see how things pan out.. ps: how many are putting their DEC dividend money back in at these prices or looking for other better short to mid term opportunities?

Dazzle

Dazzle

Tazed + notrex et all

Trying to find a link/webpage/site that can show the ii list of institutions holding DEC. I remember recently a figure roughly around 60% to 65% was held. The rest by Bod and joe public.. has this crept up or down.?

Dazzle

Over the last two months and a bit (spreading over three) the candlestick has consolidated sideways at higher highs and higher lows, breaking the £9 trend support. Hopefully the sp will finally break above £14 (70p old money) which i reckon was the maker for the shorts (see short list icon on their buying positions) imho. To think it reached a high of £1.40 last year, on what would seem compared to where we are now on much more weaker footing. Maybe the market has finally understood DEC s.a.m model and will correct the sp accordingly?

Dazzle

@tazed

Has the percentage of institutions holdings figure been going up. Since we know that a couple have bought recently. Haven't kept tabs on that particular figure as DEC been up and down so much lately.. saying that i am surprised to see the share buy back increasing, and hope it keeps continuing in momentum in bigger packages than the daily £3750(better than nothing) this should worry the shorters somewhat. I know a few in here wished it be more but i get the feeling that DEC like we knew before are spread thinly imho and until revenue increases to a point all revised bases are more than covered and extra FCF moola££$$ is growing each quarter to cover it which seems more than likely now that the gas prices are rising as well (anything above $3 is extra FCF profit) thank god they are good at hedging 2yr to lock in that margin (anything outside of hedging is taxed differently remember , so could eat into profit margin).

What i am asking myself is, is DEC better aligned now than it was back in march 2020 when at 55p? Is it in a better position? I think so. Hope some of you have been trading the candlestick gaps/windows opportunity when it arrises been a few over the last couple of months.. not long for a well over due rerate but small sustained steps than large erratic leaps is needed as DEC is a steady ship and has weathered some chaotic storms indeed. With such a small share float 47.5m for a steady company of which 70% roughly is owned by ii and Bod (not including Hargreaves lansdown or interactive investor types or banks which hold for joe bloggs.)

Dazzle

@ notrex and pickedpeck

I agree with you about the shorts which will eventually have to close their positions, then buy back going up not down..can’t fathom the actual workings of shorters (it should be banned) the only time i see a conclusive confirmation is when the support of (old money of £1.05 was formed in jan 2022 for a few months then in Jan 2023 it broke below that and thats when the first short got in around 90p old money in march 2023.. you can easily see the candlestick charts with the onslaught of selling from the highs of £1.40 down to 95p for a few months then dropped down to the lows..

The other shorters on the list added later so it baffles me why they would hold on as it would seem to be eroding there short profit margins unless they cover it by buying back in from the lows either as CFD, ETF or normal stock buying in an company account…something other than the sums at play here seems more fundamentals of DEC inner business model, maybe timing of the false woke bloomberg Pr article trashing DEC retirement obligations…or a culmination of a few factors, some which could still be in play. Seems to me DEC have covered all their bases, although reducing the dividend to fund those bases and reverse being to spread thinly trying to out smart other factors out of their control…

Still more of a growth story and possible merger in the near future (you never know) the dividend is a shadow of its former self, a sacrificial lamb to please the Gods so to speak.

Dazzle

PS:

Henry Hub leveraged at way over $2 for the next two years, so all the bashing by the usual suspects to cry wolf ( for hidden agendas) just shows the disingenuous moronic ineptitude and lack of factual research to base any counter claim or debate. For those of you who dislike facts and are easily triggered then investing isn't for you. IMHO

Dazzle

Not rocket science, if keeping to DEC presentation released earlier in May. 47% reduction of debt ($1bn as of now) by 2026 to roughly $500m. With hedged reducing year on year (currently @85% for this year), while keeping a debt leverage avg of 2.1x and hopefully increasing their ARO retirement obligations. Should keep the wolves and loony tunes at bay.. i will be asking father Christmas for a special dividend at some point fingers crossed. Imho

Dazzle

On 30th april DEC on the NYSE gapped down from $14:67 to $14:47 leaving a 20c gap that needs to be filled one way or the other, lets see how this pans out the $14:67 works out as i type with gbp/usd $1.2667 of £11:58 converted.

It is going to take a lot to convince me that rusty is not as rusty as he says, re-calibrating the divvy for buying assets and future cost cutting production at higher hedge HH with in the SAM model hopefully (famous last words) will come to fruition. Keeping tabs on the quarterly RNS figures and profiling rusty words (expectational rhetoric, comparing to what DEC are ACTUALLY pulling off in reality). Imho anyways send email with yah complaints to dkris@dgoc.com

Dazzle