Member Info for dazzle1000

@pickedpeck 00:12

Totally agree, those that take the bait have more underlying issues than the avg person. Not sure if it’s tactical to disrupt a good BB Forum with cleverly paid bashers…75% of news roughly is negative, and the positive gets blindsided to the point where it just fades into yesterdays news… thank god for the likes of The Oak Bloke and the like who can keep ther eheads on when most others are running around in a panic. The world is a different place at the moment and needs to reset back to common sense, unless the majority of sheeple like being herded by the global elites and doggy gov self serving puppets. Imho.

Dazzle

John Campbell, John’s Substack 21 hrs ago

I would appreciate your views on the dysfunctional buy back programme with Peel Hunt. The whole buy back programme imo has been a PR disaster that failed to support the SP decline. Why oh why a measly 3750 shares bought back daily by PH. Where is the logic in that ? Any ideas and no explanation from DEC ?

The Oak Bloke, 20 hrs ago

Hi John,

I'll answer the question numerically and verbally. The verbal reason for the limited buy backs is Oaktree. The $368m acquisition takes the borrowing to a point where paying down debt to remain within 2.5X covenant is important. Moreover the acquisition is more earnings accretive than buy backs. Also buying the 48.75% holding made a great deal of strategic sense (Gulf pricing) and zero marginal overheads. It would have been daft for a competitor to control 48.75% of their assets - and Oaktree had to offer DEC first refusal.

Numerically it makes sense too. They've bought something at 3.1X EBITDA and sold something at 5.7X EBITDA. On the $200m element there is a 2.6X EBITDA difference which equates to $77m of accretive per annum earnings. If they'd instead spent $200m on buy backs then that would equate to 16.66m shares (assuming $12/share average). The dividends "saved" on those would be $18m dollars a year (16.66m shares x $1.08). So the acquisition is $59m a year better.

I hope that makes sense both from a strategic but also from a mathematical perspective.

Oak Bloke

@playing ftse 12:41pm

Maybe a special dividend could be on the cards with in the next three years if debt will be halved by 2026 as well, if interest rates go down and henry hub NG goes up a little (as forecast) as DEC will be locking in another year this could add up to more FCF fingers crossed..imho

Dazzle

@notrex 21:27pm

You could be right in that the sp may have bottomed notrex.. since april 29th NYSE on a weekly chart shows it gapped down from $14:67 to $14:47 on the 30th leaving a 20c window to fill and since then the sp has fallen to where i mentioned before on another gapped just filled now £13:01 . It gapped up after the 8th april from $13:01 on the next day on the 9th and was filled today around 4pm our time on the NYSE.. havent checked for the 3750 bb shares today on the traded icon.. but im sure if it DECwere buying around these price it may be around the bottom side…imho

Dazzle

@lukee 10:09am

That is an interesting point, to expand on that, perhaps buying to much too soon although seems the way to do it, would increase the sentiment to high perhaps in to overbought territory and DEC running ahead of its self causing other glitches… not sure what caused the rise the other week maybe an over reaction, but at least we know DEC has a marginal price min-max that they deem efficient enough to buy back its shares ..there must be a tipping point for now that DEC feels the shares will be less efficient with in the currant metrics… i look forward as a growth share rather than divvy income that by 2026 the debt will be halved. I wait with sauron eyes of mordor to see this prophecy fulfilled with the financial re-ratings

Dazzle

@jiffybag 17;00pm

Thanks for the link to the recent D.T interview, nice to see it put on another days post to update all what peel hunt feel about DEC. Although i thought the guy being interviewed, Matt seemed to trail off at times, speaking in a soft vocal fry, croaky voice. Better to see little but often in buy backs than nothing at all, maybe peel hunt using different tactics than big buys which may increase the sp too much in to overbought territory, speaking in technical analysis. Just some thoughts. Imho

Dazzle

@sd235 11:29am

The recent peel hunt interview couple of days back mentioned by |DEC not using the rcf they save over the longer term in the figure/date mentioned 2.75% pa buy paying of the debt from fcf saving 30% in 2030. That plus share buy backs although small and incremental do make a difference longer term…are investors willing to wait that long? Depends an their relative piece of string.

Dazzle

Notrex

I understand yah pain and grievances, has anybody vote against Rusty being made? CEO? Did anybody voted against the dividend cut? (use it or lose it? So to speak? That’s what voting for and it will send a message to Rusty that we over upon I’m not amused.

It is what it is, unless investors have more/use voting power against board antics then they just have to put up or shut up for the time being. Or sell out to a better paying company with better paying divvy.. best email doug kris (good luck with a reply)

Imo according to the tech analysis there was a head and shoulders pattern formed and we headed down to the neck after the highs recently and we hit the lower gap/window of around £10.79 but the USA gap window was only slightly lower around after $ ex-rate to £10.59 ish from memory. So i am hoping what with weak holders bailing and the share buy backs slowly kicking off ( or kicking the can down the road a tad) maybe if they buy too much it goes across a thresh hold of efficiency.

Write to or send email to DEC BoD of your concerns, not that i think anyone will as we have a dum down mentality of putting up with sh.ite and not complaining but moaning or whinging rather than be pro active and do something about it.hense the state of the U.K. in general imho.

Dazzle

@notrex

not quite true, as DEC did a large buying a month or two ago that was large in size…. Reading from those in advfn they seem more positive inclined about the dividend payments being 29c or roughly (after wht and £/$ ex rate 20p) that for the next three years the divy will be, cough (with out rusty recalibrating again) fixed at @29c. Now assuming the re-rates for DEC hod up and the SP does climb. those buying in then/later will have a smaller % yield than to those who have bought in around say £9-£10.50. Isn't that a good thing? And with the debt being payed off by half by 2026 this will defo move the SP somewhat. Would not look good if DEC reduced divvys again with more fcf in the bank as it can not ALL go towards acquisitions? If the DEC (SAM) model holds up then money saved paying off debt there after surely will either proportionally be added to the dividends and all share buybacks Which wouldn’t be as cost-effective at higher prices surely. So I wouldn’t roll out increasing the dividends after three years. Just my thoughts.

Dazzle

This small pull back looks to close a candlestick gap/window on april 10th £10.79

Dazzle

@notrex 16:27pm

As hard as it may seem be the better person and not bite the worm on the hook, you seem to have a head on your shoulders it be a waste of tie spending it on court jesters… something for you though if you are interested i have had a look a the shorters register when the main initial prices started to go up from 15th- 18th December 2023 is when news of share consolidation and starting on the NYSE this i can assume for now is the catalyst for the shortest to start there plan. Obviously since then, you had the two committee meetings and the dubious shorters report on top of that say looking around £13.63 roughly when that happened. The share price channelled sideways from £10 down to £8.30 until breakout on the 8th of April from that consated channel next resistance is roughly £12.30.

There was a slight gap up in American market On the 8th of April are they high of $13.01 which has not been filled yet (possibly next week) not all of windows/gaps get closed but the longer it trends up there is a possibility of a fat finger happening to close it…i suspect if DEC release more strong financial results then the trend will only keep going up..

Would of liked to see more (aggressive share by backs) as i am wondering at what point would consider the buy backs NOT beneficial, as they can buy them at half the the price in old money around roughly 60p+ at the mo. Unless they are happy to buy them £ for £ sometime in the year ( happy days if the SP gets back to £1 old money, £20 in new money) would help a lot of people who got caught out and couldn't avg down.. just some thougts have a great week all and enjoy the grand national.

Dazzle

£11 it gapped up from yesterday close

Typo

Sorry not £42m per quarter but £21m roughly…misread pickedpeck lat post on shorters so appologies

@pickedpeck 11:11am

I would assume those whom averaged down like my self are coming into their averages now like you said pickedpeck but why sell out if DEC is a good Growth story doing what they say is on the tin…that savings from reducing the divy roughly £42m per quarter starting from now will help loads on the balance sheet and shore up the books…hoping that HH gas price climbs above $2- $2.50 where DEC likes it stabilised anything above that is a Brucey bonus from $3-$3.50 from memory is extra profit….anything made out side the headge is taxed at a higher/different rate which eats into profits so DEC like the sweet spot and play it stable albeit no more poiltical unrest to shake the gas markets to $10+.

Dazzle

@notrex

I agree with you, that skier1 remarks are harsh and unwarranted about dividends. Shows his lack of empathy towards LTH.

I just hope we see a REAL sp re-rate soon based on DEC recalibrated efforts.. maybe the competition are eyeing up DEC’s SAM model and that is pushing acquisitions?

Dazzle

As i mentioned in previous posts, DEC trading on the NYSE gapped down from $13.39 to the close of $12.03 on the 28th/29th of Febuary. There have been other smaller gaps/windows inbetween that have been closed. So i am hoping this will eventually do the same in the coming weeks/month if not sooner depending on trading/investor volume and buybacks.

This does seem with the current RNS that DEC are doing what they have set out to do. Lets see how the USE markets does currently as i type $13.07 (£10.33) either UK goes infront or the USA push there side higher….

Dazzle

@jim800 18:06

You are right there jim, i was just thinking of the people who bought in to rusty’s stoic speech in 2022 where he mentioned “i will never cut the dividend” and in old money its still half of what they should be getting for there bang for buck, oh how some have short memories….. if from last year high of £1.40 in old money, to the low of where it is now….and DEC did say in previous RNS “we dont know why the sp has dropped based on our SAM model” etc. even though they hedge two years in to the future …..i did say DEC is a hold for now, and i will get over the divvy cut.. just not the stoic company i thought it was..

Dazzle

Growth stock play at best, with a 5% divvy which may creep back up in a few years depending if rusty’s ready to recalibrate again…been looking around for more bang for buck 10%+ divvy payers around or above the £1.2 - £2 sp mark there are some.. to be honest although the new DEC fundamentals look great (apart from divvy) i just hope DEC can stick to this and deliver on it’s promises which now seem less credible.

Been a real eye opener following DEC up until rusty’s recalibration..lol. can understand why any funds who have DEC may have to trim the fat off the bacon somewhat depending on either a growth or income strategy…

Slight gap/window down from the USA market from 21st march $11:45 which will be needing to get closed at some point…could explain the uplift today from people buying/re- divvy buying into DEC for the growth part of the story..

Dazzle

Check out pure tech health tender offer to buy back its shares from more empowering investors (not sure if it is more in public or ii hands?) to compare what DEC would have offered for comparison.

Dazzle

@lutherl33 8:59

No problems lutherl33, not in the habit of giving tips or advice as they can go down as well as up and can leave a nasty taste in the mouth when stranger things don't go as expected, glad you got in below £5. As of writing it is around 9% as an RNS this morning showing results etc.. so just good timing on my part and you doing DD i hope lol..

I see people are still frustrated, best channel the raw emotions to better use and write emails to officially log a complaint and or concerns to: d k r i s @ d g o c . c o m

Best of luck, the more emails sent the validity and merit of concerns go up. Beats whining about it.

Dazzle