Member Info for dazzle1000

Creaming the Curve DW describes his relationship with PB as being like brothers. Highly respectful of each other, but they do disagree on things and fight from time to time, but they do understand each other well and always work out an agreement. Says to me that DW is very loyal to his shareholders and is doing absolutely what is in all shareholders best interest. Seems PB is supremely confident of the oily postcode we are in. PB tells DW not to worry about whats in the ground all the time, so to me and as others I think believe as well, we might have more of the gooey stuff than most expect. DW confident of creaming the curve. $70 - $100 POO very possible in the timeframe we will be monetising this oily little baby. Resource value at the current POO $45USD is around $15BN USD. Therefore you can extrapolate yourself what the resource value could be with POO in the 70’s or higher. DW said you have to leave money on the table for the buyer, so don’t get expectations of monetising at the full resource value. I am confident he will do a good deal in the end, which also takes into account getting the best outcome for 88E from the NPI deal with BEX (he is already strategizing this). Seems confident of his 100 bagger plus call still, even though we didn’t use those exact words, but we did talk about possibility of $ type SP in the monetisation process. I think we are looking at a year longer to do this, so maybe later 2018 is the timeframe or even 2019, unless one of the big boys sees a rising POO and jumps us! Who knows where the US dollar is going and we chatted about that, as it will reflect in the ultimate return we get? But if it strengthens against the Aussie and the Pound, then it will also have a positive impact on the monetisation value (come to your own conclusions on that one, way too hard for me, even though I do think the US will strengthen no matter who goes into govt).

Really, it boils down to the viscosity. You need a hydrocarbon that can flow more easily through these tight rocks which means it can flow at higher rates. You need hydrocarbon pore volume or resource concentration, which is the amount of oil in place per acre per foot, which means that a single well can access more oil and therefore can flow at higher rates again and have better ultimate recoveries.

Now, we have a model which is pretty robust. Effectively, what we're seeing is the volatile oil, if you use what the oil business uses to figure out the amount of oil, they'll use this thing called the formation volume factor, the B-sub-O, which basically is just the ratio of the amount of reservoir barrels per stack tank. In other words, the ratio of how many barrels in the ground versus how many you get out of the top, at the surface. What we were to do was, using all the information from the well, quantify the volatile oil side of it. We talk about volatile oil, but volatile oil is a different type of oil that you add on to this other calculation. In other words, what we were able to find is rather than having 45% oil, then another 20% or so, and what this is, is this is oil that's in the gas that comes to the surface that's actually richer than the other oil. That's what the driver in this play is. That's the reason why the sweet spot in the Eagle Ford works and you get two miles away is not nearly as good. We were able to see this phenomenon in the well. Then, with the offset wells and this last cut, we're able to take that.

Q: So every day, you’d choose our acreage over the north (Great Bear)? StephenS: [Nods in agreement] PaulB: Indeed! DaveW: It’s fair to say that if you could transpose the conventional from the northern acreage into our acreage we would be pretty happy with that [PaulB: nodding] because basically how it works is the further south you go the deeper the sediments are. As sediments are buried deeper - except for the weird Paul Basinski HRZ shale - typically you get a reduction in porosity and permeability. So we’ve obviously with the shale got this crazy porosity - permeability is still tight - but the sandstones when you get to a depth of the HRZ, they have porosities that are not dissimilar - and that’s ok for a sandstone, amazing for a shale - but you wouldn’t want it to be much less and you still have to frack a sandstone at that depth with the 13% porosity. But as you go further to the north - so this one (Repsol) that’s just been discovered - 1.4 billion barrels - that’s an average of about 22% porosity at 6,000 feet of depth. So we have that in the shallower sequences, but not in the deeper sequences.

And we have core gas - and we’ve been able to convert that into a critical phase and API gravity - now we take the viscosity and these are run in all of our simulators when we talk about the flows we know the viscosity - and the viscosity is an amazing thing. If you go 10 miles to the north of us (Great Bear?) the viscosity is 15 times higher than we are - and when you put that into the flow equation that means 15X the flow rate. That means a (great well?) or something on the North Slope that you’re dead. So viscosity is key.

So in the sub-surface it’s in what they call super-critical phase. And what we’ve learned at the EagleFord is when you produce it - it flows like a gas. When it gets to the surface, most of the gas is very, very rich oil. But - as it leaves the pores, and the pressure goes down and then gas forms in the pores - the gas in the pores creates another energy system in order to increase the recovery factor. That’s the reason why you get recovery factors because you basically have another artificial assist. And that’s the reason why EOG and ConocoPhillips have such extraordinary wells. So this is an unusual phase and it provides it’s own energy in order to be able to get recovery factors that are like 15%, 20%, 25%. So this is extraordinarily important. Once we have the Volatile Oil Phase - this is where we are now… do we have the right Rock & Fluid Mechanics? Because at the end of the day it’s about the stimulated rock volume and the amount of hydrocarbon in the stimulated rock volume we can keep propped open? So - we can frack this thing, but how high does it go? Is there propane embedment? How will it last as you bring down the pore pressure, because then effective stress goes up? So these are the important questions. And right now - we are on the edge of this.

16) You mentioned the mechanics of how the gas in a super-critical phase is released and it has a second energy - can you explain that a bit more and maybe relate that to the recovery rates you mentioned above 25%? PaulB: If you look at EOG’s reports - and EOG are very clever - if you decompile them, then they’re much higher than what people say. We’re using 17% because that’s well within the range of what’s already been demonstrated. But the recovery factor ultimately is going to be a function of the stress-sensitive permeability. But with respect of the phase itself - it’s a super-critical fluid in other words it’s a gas - but when it gets down to this bubble point, then it starts to release liquids. People in Eagleford didn’t think Eagleford could work because they thought that as soon as you start producing, the liquids would drop out in a near well-bore area and cause a perm block - and you’d never be able to get the oil out. And that’s a really great theory - but the problem is all that that pressure drop happens within a centimetre of where the fracture is. So that pressure drop is happening within that super-tight rock - and after that you’ve got thousands of psi of flowing pressure and it keeps it in that phase. And so what happens is that drop-out does happen but it happens inside the pore. And when it happens inside the pore, because of the surface chemistry of the pores the gas is adhered to the edges of the pore - and it forces out other things that haven’t gone to gas yet. So what it does is it squeezes it out. Because in volatile oil - which is basically a super-critical gas - there’s actually three different types of oil in volatile oil - there’s condensate, and there’s two types of volatile oil. The only way you can really understand it is if you get into the physics and you’re looking at Feccant(?) curves and all that. But there’s a big difference between our oil and condensate, because our oil has a much higher - it’s C15+. And again, the reason is, because when you get to wet gas, it’s much more mature - all that’s been cracked to the gas. But this hasn’t been cracked, because there hasn't been any cracking done yet. This is all about the kerogen kinetics. It’s just a different base and that’s why it’s been so poorly understood.

$400 for 125million barrels uhmmm $450 for our 2.2bn conventional is 5.5p would you be happy with that? Oil search paid Armstrong $3 a barrel when Brent was $40... food for thought ... dazzle

Just a thought now the FO is almost done and news due anytime... any farmee tier 1 would have been surprised at last year Brent oil price spike to $85 this I feel could of been Dave’s magic number triggered at his Uber optimistic end of the spectrum.. one I feel the Saudis are currently steering the oil price to a sustainable gdp level all round... trump cannot have it both ways and Iran still pumping out over 2 million barrels while Venezuela is pumping 700k by all accounts from different sources.... Our farmee would be considering this new stable strip oil price and may? Factor this in longer term to buy us out.. giving us a $30 profit from $40 break even ( which could be lowered if using better technology ) Just some loose thoughts of the day ... dazzle

Oman's energy minister Mohammed bin Hamad al-Rumhy said on Wednesday it was OPEC's goal to extend the cuts, which were started in January, when they next meet in June. For producers, the tight market conditions mean higher profits. Analysts at Bernstein Energy said current price levels reflected the average marginal cost for most listed oil producers. "We have surveyed the 50 largest listed oil and gas companies globally... Based on 2018 annual reports we estimate that the global marginal cost of oil remained stable at $71 per barrel," Bernstein said in a note on Thursday. "This is on line with current spot prices but higher than the long-term oil forward strip price of $61 per barrel," the note said. "With oil prices rising more than costs, industry margins increased by more than 200 percent in 2018," Bernstein said, resulting in industry profitability "at the highest in the last 5 years."

Too PRESERVE the sp one must know how to spread the jam... I bet know one read the links I put yesterday , I take it everyone’s all clued up are we...so why the whinging? Dave laid it all out loud and clear guess some of you are deaf door nails, know it all’s, Naive or just plain unlucky....good post by newanda12:19

http://88ewiki.wikidot.com/presentations:09092016-london-transcript Sorry for typo on iPhone predictive text missed typed some words on previous post Dazzle...

The previous 2 W&Zack were from this q&a Shares Spotlight Interview Dave Wall 20/06/17 transcript And not from sept 2016 Dazzle

MB: And, you probably can’t answer this but I’m going to ask the question anyway and we can always strike it off the video, have you had approaches to get involved or partner in with you at this stage, or have you been out looking? DW: We haven’t really actively tried to farm out, because fortunately the access capital that we’ve had from the market has been very strong, and we’ve always felt that retaining as much of the working interest as possible until we’ve actually created that definitive value point is something that in the medium and longer term would far outstrip, in terms of value for our shareholders, giving away a significant chunk at the front end. So we have talked to several companies, there is interest, we haven’t really tried to sell it, but we do know that there is a lot of interest in this well and this is something that a lot of companies are watching.

So obviously in the success case, if the market cap goes up and it’s less dilutive for us to raise money and investors want us to raise money, rather than sell part of the acreage or farm it out, we would do that. And then in the failure case I think that funding that conventional test well is something that we would look to farm out that well rather than raise money because share price in the failure case would be lower and so the dilution associated with that would be harder to swallow. Whereas I think that in the success case a higher share price obviously affords a much less dilutive path. MB: Obviously it’s been climbing the last few weeks, hopefully on the success of ICEWINE2. Looking 2 or 3 years out, do you think you’ll be producing, or do you think you’ll have probably sold the asset or farmed out the assets? DW: There will be some production, but however our goal is to create as much value as we can over that 2 – 3 year period that you referred to. And then at that point in time it’s probably more appropriate for a larger company to come in to do a full field development of this asset because there are literally over a thousand wells that could be drilled into the HRZ on the unconventional side. And we’re not the company that would be doing that, unless we transform significantly over that period

http://88ewiki.wikidot.com/london-presentation-transcript Just skimmed through this and it answers a very big chunk of things to to come and has been... quite an emotional read to be honest, Now that Paul has passed.... time line wise we are near the end of 2 to 2.5 yr of proving up June/July It really does deserve a re-read .. the Q&A in some parts Concentrate too much on the Technical aspects, But I like the way Dave and Paul journey us through different stages and scenarios some have come true some have not yet, but it is fun to look back in wonderful hindsight... You can definitely see Paul’s optimism and Daves prudence

Sat 17;17pm lemajor good analogy seems to me we didn’t have enough money to buy new car and had to go for the cheaper option of getting parts fixed 1st to see if the car runs And then finally tuning it back to a healthy running engineYou can’t blame a mechanic if the diagnostics can only pick up so much and there are hidden faults beyond this blimey you can go to town on this analogy would anyone like to contribute laugh out loud

That is the question lol great post jofhoggit Nice summary of the fracking of icewine2 i like to think that is what happened 100% but we are not fully sure are we but it seems plausible enough and makes sense...The more I think about it the more I feel we are in a two stage appraisal part one is the conventional two .2 billion the second part is ice wine HRZ and a third and possible S The more I think about it the more I feel we are in a two stage appraisal part one is the conventional two .2 billion the second part is ice wine HRZ and a third and possible Theory that the Yukon gold prospect will be or could be used to A/buy up shares B/ Pay for HRZ appraisal drills but why would we if we had the money from the farm out on the conventional perhaps and finally C/Or yukon gold to go it alone under the captivate/ accumulate 88E banner as a producer if Dave is magic figure of $85 per barrel is sustainable for you to get the Saudis need it to breakeven for their economy Trump can’t have it both ways producing over 12 million and exporting oil (some recent shipments were contaminated ) while the price of oil is low as the shale needs $60 Dollars or more for the smaller producers which are now being eaten up by the big majors as they have deep pockets but what are their break even and marginable prices at?

WAaussie... lol yep I understand your pain that too many encouraging words would be interpreted as over optimistic Albeit would it be any different if Dave was more pessimistic with his choice of words?? Tough one to negotiate with.. dammed if you do dammed if you don’t you can’t please everybody all the time and the summertime that old chestnut it’s a matter of having patience and a one off special 88 wiki investor research Centre but haven’t seen in any other company at the moment unless someone can point out with a dual cross chat board network that we have with hot copper and LSE... i’m not making any excuses for Dave when he Writes an rns But he has done on a break Asian point out the risks and even though he’s not always optimistic and keeps things close to his chest ironclad like getting blood from a stone most of the time he will give snippets of gold nuggets of information that we can join the tease and.tog but he has done on a break Asian point out the risks and even though he’s not always optimistic and keeps things close to his chest ironclad like getting blood from a stone most of the time he will give snippets of gold nuggets of information that we can join the tease and dots. Together we are not always right but it’s fun figuring out different options and outcomes This can only help an investor reduce their risk or continue and top up if they feel that the rewards are worth it.. That’s investing.. should be taken with a large pinch of salt if I’m certain of one’s financial discipline and knowledge base everything is relative and nothing is certain. I recommend investors reading the old Q&A from 2016 to 2018 And the presentations from those years.....best regards dazzle

I agree in part with what your saying fella... but we are posting in hindsight aren’t we and if your were cautiously optimistic like Dave was wouldn’t you put in the odd transformational word in an rns ( and of course disclaimer of risks involved in drilling and like Paul b knew when having Surgery too ) .... I truely hope for all those nervous types who over leveraged at higher prices that a spike comes so they can derisk or break even... and move onto safer financial instruments better suited to their more comfortable needs... some I feel over the years have learned that AIM isn’t for them or the faint hearted...best of luck to you all...