Member Info for Davius

You could make a movie from the goings on with this company. Or possibly a mini series. Huge prospects damaged by kidnappings, litigation, massive write downs and barely relisting before being removed from AIM altogether. The write down of $70m on the accounts is unfortunate and follows a $200m write down last year. Although these are primarily accounting issues they do mean that the earnings potential from Bilabri prospect has dropped dramatically and affect the asset value of the company. Cash at the end of June was a tad under $25m and with cost savings and the likelihood of further farm out agreements and asset sales, they should not need to tap the market for additional funds, in the short term at least. Prospects in Nigeria and the Gulf of Guinea look very promising, if a little long to come to fruition (2009 or later). Net assets fell to $0.71 per share, although much of this is exploration costs. However, a potential buyer would no doubt see the current £27m market cap as pretty tempting, given the capital expenditure to date. I see that the share price dropped to sub 16p, rebounded to 20p before falling again to close at 15-16p. The after close 515K buy does appear to have gone through at 19p and with no indication of a delayed trade that could help the share price in the morning. I have no position as yet, I’m a bit extended in CFM and took another punt on NRK today, but will be watching EEL closely tomorrow.

Down heavily on return from suspension this morning. They had to relist within 6 months and only just made it. Biggest faller of the day so far but plenty of buying, it's not a large scale sell off.

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Shares in Scottish & Newcastle PLC, Heineken NV and Carlsberg A/S were all trading higher in the early afternoon, after Carlsberg and Heineken confirmed that they were in talks over an offer for Scottish & Newcastle. Traders noted that the price tag for an acquisition could be somewhere between 750 and 800 pence. At 12.13 pm, shares in Scottish & Newcastle charged 19.56 pct ahead, while Heineken added 3.56 pct and Carlsberg jumped 8.19 pct. "Vague initial whispers are of an 800 pence per share cash offer, which would value the company at around 7.5 bln stg," one London-based trader said. Others pointed to a wider range of between 750 and 800 pence a share, which would represent a 18-25 pct premium to yesterday's closing share price for Scottish & Newcastle, and value the deal at between 7.1 bln and 7.6 bln stg. "Rumours that Carlsberg had been preparing a bid had been in the markets for several weeks," said Martin Slaney, head of spread betting at GFT Global Markets.

Carlsberg/Heineken in bid talks for Scottish & Newcastle. Missed most of the leap today but in for a speculative punt at 750p...

I've read the postings on RBS this morning, and some of those on NRK. I think the dutch deal may continue to over shadow RBS and keep the share price subdued for a while, and NRK is just too hard to call either way at present. But I've been watching AL drop for a few days now and it seems to me the fall has been a little overdone. Have decided to go long, was tempted when L2 which had been showing selling pressure this morning, reversed and now indicates a 2-1 ratio in favour of buyers. In at 742.5p and looking for a short term small recovery.

Another auction at 21.25p now. It looks like it will resume on 21.25-22.25p. Whether you stay in or sell should depend on why you think it has moved up. If it was just a market maker ploy to get buyers in then sell. Personally I think it would be more likely based on a rumour of a contract win, perhaps the 1000 room (or more) part of the hotel contract they were bidding on. But who knows, until an RNS it's just speculation unless you're in the know.

Thought about buying in here when it went to 22p, then to see it arrive in auction at 25.5p a few minutes later. 24.75-25.5p for a short time before retracing, now back to 20.75-22p now. A mix of buys and sells at the current share price. Presumably some info has leaked regarding one of the contracts, or speculation of such...

TD Waterhouse decided to stop out a small short I had on AL this morning. The stop loss price was 820.91p and there was an auction at the open, with the first trade (Uncrossing) going through at 835p. After the auction the following trades went through at 814.5p, 804p, 814p, 804p and then further prices below 814p. TDW would not allow me to trade at auction prices as the bid is above the offer at this time, so I fail to see how they can close a position based on an auction trading price. I've sent them a complaint, if they do not reinstate the position I'll be looking for a new broker. Anyone recommend any?

Hmm, having just watched most of the program, perhaps I'd have been better leaving the short to run overnight ;) Seriously though, you can't tell what will happen by the morning, could be a 20p shift either way at the open for all I know, better to be out of a CFD overnight I think.

I took out a short position in AL this morning, at 790p, eventually closing it at 766p. Thought about switching to a long but decided not to. SP now back around 772p and level 2 which has been showing heavy selling pressure all day is now at buy volume of 111K and sell volume of 86K.

Steady buying of Vernalis all day and the SP has been ticking up relentlessly. Now the 7th highest riser today and up nearly 25%. Quite a bounce from a low of 15.5p on Tuesday.

Further buying this morning. Goldman Sachs rates this a "hold" with a target price of 29p, but the director buying has to be a good sign. I came very close to buying in at 16.5p yesterday but thought they might fall a little more. Dang. 19.5-20p now.

I watched it rise and rise too, thinking sooner or later it will turn, too late to buy in now, etc, etc. Still, you can't be in every stock at the same time.

I've been a fan of trading in this share and done well when buying at sub 22p. Had a punt on BB today, which paid off buy not buy much so I think it's worth taking a look here tomorrow. A trading statement is due during the second half of this month, so a buy on a T20 would run through to this. The update should include not only the expected outturn for the current financial year but also news on how the strategic review is progressing. By no means a one way bet, but possibly worth a gamble at 21p I would say.

Was it worth the risk? Are you on auto stop loss or open? A quick drop of 10p and you're down a couple of grand on that kind of a punt... Level 2 now 2-6 at 436.5-436.75p, buy volume 359K, sell volume 257K

The bid at 7p is now at the placing price of the 6.5m new shares issued on the 26th February. The placing and loan issue was pretty much a rescue for a company that had been running on its overdraft. That much of the new money was raised from the existing directors and other investors would appear to be a good sign though. But be aware that this is typically a thinly traded share and can be difficult to buy when it starts rising and sell when it start falling. The latest contract wins and placing price should support the shares from here and as I've been typing a small tick up on the bid has moved them to 7.28-7.44p (trading prices rather than spread). Also bear in mind that trades over 10K always get reported late on this stock, so no way of really knowing what's happening re buys and sells. Quite a risk I'd say, but if the rumoured big contract is announced soon then there's a good profit potential.

For once the old addage that profit warnings always come in threes is correct. Looking pretty bleak unfortunately, and no clear indication of how long the suspension will last. "It has now come to the Company's attention that its results for the year to 31 July 2007 are likely to be materially lower than previously expected." "However, at the current time Carter & Carter cannot accurately assess its financial position and is therefore unable to provide the market with an informed update of its position."

I exited sub 430p too, now up around 437p... Thought about a short from here but level 2 looking strong, 653K buys and 128K sells so will probably steer clear for now.

A bit fall for drug company vernalis after the FDA issued a "not approvable" notice related to the companies Frova migraine medicine. Vernalis was due to receive a $40m payment from Endo Pharmaceuticals in respect of Frova, which it now won't receive. The shortfall indicates that they may now need to raise funds via an equity issue. The problems were mentioned a couple of weeks ago, and at the time reported "Vernalis said that the FDA has not asked for additional data and it is confident that the product will be approved." Vernalis also has a weight loss product V24343, which has shown "striking results" in phase I clinical trials and is thought to have a huge potential. The share price is down to 18.25-19.25p from a close of 40.5p. Much as I'm a fan of recovery stocks, I think it's worth waiting for a further statement on fundraising, and for new broker targets before considering whether this is worth a go. Landbanski has downgraged to 'hold' from 'buy' but is reviewing its target price.

Storming up again now. Quite tempted to sell now, only have a small long CFD on these. 427.75-429p now.