Member Info for Davius

WNG up strongly this morning on some fairly heavy buying first thing, getting on for 500K shares bought in the first half an hour and virtually no selling. Share price now up to 31.75-33p, no news out yet so presumably more speculative buying awaiting contract news or the rumoured (and I think unlikely but not impossible) MBO. Worth hanging on to these for the time being.

Don't have it sorry, but British Bulls have issued a 'Buy If' on SOLA this evening. http://www.britishbulls.com/StockPage.asp?CompanyTicker=SOLA&MarketTicker=Technology&Typ=S

For anyone that hasn't yet seen it, Ambrian has a buy note out with a 400p target price...

Hey Vlad, there's the 10% turnaround I was talking about...

I'm in none of those at present Vlad. Have quite a lot of WNG, going well and too many MXP, remaining weak. Also have a T20 in TAN but fortunately at sub 140p so doing ok, plus my long term stuff. Good recovery starting in SOLA, L2 looking solid with buys far outnumbering sells now.

If I were looking to average down an existing holding I think it would be more important to try and avoid it falling further after buying in rather than trying to catch the bottom. I'd want to see the start of a recovery, so probably would avoid whilst it remains under 200p, unless they suffer a further significant fall. Personally I look for a bounce of between 5 and 10% off the bottom as a possible sign that the shares are more likely to recover. I'm staying out for now.

Doing very nicely again this morning, I hope some here stayed with them, now up to 31.75-32.5p. Some rumours are circulating of a potential MBO, I'm not convinced about this but if it were to happen my estimates put it at 46p or so. In any case despite the recent rise the company is still valued only a little above net asset value so may well have further to go. Assuming they do remain as an independant listed company, then the continued recovery hinges partyl on the signing of the delayed contracts, although no doubt news of a management reshuffle will help. A continued hold at least, perhaps a speculative buy even at thee levels. My personal target is now 36p+. Just moved to 32.25-33p.

I took a small punt on SOLA last week, in at 252.5p and out at 259.12p, for a small profit. I'd have stayed with it but thought that the SP had further to fall after the minor rebound, and so it has. Have been watching closely today and the slide does seem to have stopped at the moment, now around 212p. I'm not convinced about buying back in yet though, level 2 still showing selling pressure. I think the 50p target from our donut eating friend is complete BS personally, but sub 200p is now a distinct possibility. The company has suggested that a hefty increase in production is likely next year, but I agree with Josh, they need something a bit firmer than the current comment: "ReneSola said that it is planning for a substantial increase in production capacity in 2008."

Probably a bit early to say this is recovering, but after a brief sell off this morning the share price is starting to pick up again. For what it's worth, level 2 data is showing 48K of buys against 41K of sells, and the SP has recovered the loss this morning and is now up to 270-274.75p. The difficulty with a such a share is how to ascribe fair value on the back of what amounts to a significant profita warning. Undoubtely the high value placed on the company when the SP was up above 600p a share was supported by the expectation of very rapid growth, which has now been tempered somewhat. There is also the issue of professional shorters attacking the company, other BBs are rife with 200p and lower price targets, and our donut eating comrade EK is also reported as a heavy shorter of this share. Whilst the opinion of said individuals should not really affect our investment decisions (he also shorts TAN) we are aware that such opinions can and do have an effect on the price of a share. I would think that a fair valuation was somewhere between 250p and 350p, given the expansion prospects for next year, but that's more a 'finger in the air' guestimate rather than an assessment based on accounts and profits.

264.5-267p now, some earlier sellers buying back in perhaps. L2 showing buy volume of 44K and sell volume of 79K at present.

I think it's because they are below expectations. There are several news releases, click on the share news icon above. LONDON (Thomson Financial) - ReneSola Ltd cautioned its financial target for the year will be adversely impacted by a cut in its production outlook for 2007 from 150 megawatts (MW) to 120-125 MW. The maker of wafers for the solar PV industry blamed the downward revision on a delay in starting its full multicrystalline production due to a setback in delivery of crucibles for its new furnaces. At 9.43 am, Renesola shares were down 25.27 pct at 276.50 pence. The company said its second-quarter profit declined from the first quarter due to upgrades to some of its furnaces and an increased operating cost base, but said it is well positioned to continue its strong growth. It reported a pretax profit of 4.56 mln usd for the three months ended June 30, down from 7.34 mln in the previous quarter. Profit after tax for the period was down to 5.4 mln usd from 6.4 mln usd. Second-quarter sales rose to 45.6 mln usd from 36.6 mln in the first quarter, while production rose to 23 MW from 15.3 MW in the first quarter. ReneSola said it is planning for a substantial increase in production capacity in 2008.

Sorry, that should have read to 240p, just as K7s post should have read 250p no doubt.

SP opened at 372p, we've seen a fall of 132p to the low of 140p. It depends how much of that was just holders bailing and how much was short selling. We know that the Fat Man (EK) reportedly shorts SOLA so it may have sustained a bit of an attack today. If so they'll probably want to close quickly on any recovery, which would drag the price back up again.

Bouncing now...

Just hit auction pricing on the way down at 257p, which then switched to 255p. I'm never a fan of posting negative views, but in this case I can't read a floor. There are a few buys down to 249.25p but at that point support runs out. All of the buyers are brokers too, which looks like they are trying to prop up the SP. Even as I was typing another auction kicked in at 250p. Sell now and buy back later would be my advice. :(

Have been watching and contemplating a small buy here myself, but the SP showing no signs of a concerted upturn yet, each brief increase results in further selling. The production targets for next year look quite spectacular, so no doubt at some point the fortunes will turn, but the trouble is with the figures out today there's now no good news due to give the shares a boost. My feeling is that this is another fall which has been overdone, they are now down 58% from their peak in February. But the issue is how long sentiment will run against them. SP now at 262-266p, and level 2 showing 4 times as many sells as buys, so it could have further to fall yet.

You did well to get out at 322.5p, SP now in auction at 290p and looking none too bright. I suspected it wouldn't do well on the results, they had reported outages in the last results too. Yesterdays was a good rise for anyone that took profits. Still, MXP looking brighter this morning.

I posted on Saturday that I estimated fair value at 32p a share based on net asset value plus £5m for intangibles. That doesn't include any premium that might be applied if/when the management turn the company around and back into profit though, or any potential bid premium. The 32p target was surpassed today, on a brief upward spike and the share price closed at 30p. I think there's perhaps further to go, the increase since Friday is clearly a reaction to an overly large fall. We have to consider that they were trading at getting on for 200p back in May, although that valuation looks to have been highly optimistic. It's very hard to say where too from here, but my personal target is 36p. After a bumper trading day today I may just hang on to some shares for the longer term, but haven't decided yet. Another rapid increase such as we've seen today would probably persuade me to take profits.

Well when short term trading I'm a great believer in setting targets and sticking to them, it's very easy to get carried away with a rising share, only to see it fall quickly and then end up getting locked in or taking a loss. So have sold out today at 787.15p for a decent return in a day. BVS remains on my watch list though.

Set myself a sell target of 787p and getting very close to that now. Good recovery across the markets today, but with the all share up just over 1% anything outperforming that is a bonus.