Member Info for daveycaferacer

Another set of extremely good H1 Results which I have now come to expect. Busy reading through at the moment but the strategy seems to be paying off. I am still interested in Savolitinib's NDA date because I thought an application could be made with Phase II data but yesterday's announcement implies it won't happen until the end of Phase III unless I have mis-interpreted it. Some confirmation on that would be appreciated at some point.

Yes, good point Miti, I think we were expecting NDA on Phase 2 data and that is still indicated on the Pipeline. What I really like about today's announcement is we appear to be effectively buying back a proportion of rights to the global sales in order to retain greater economic benefits as the drug sales ramp up. Looking forward to the H1 results tomorrow.

Volume appears to be better on AIM than NASDAQ at the moment, maybe people buying ahead of H1 results next Tuesday? Buy and Hold is my strategy and as an old romantic my wife had HCM shares for her birthday ;o-)

I am bemused by the lack of interest in the American market - 34 ADR's traded so far today as at 15:45 local time My wife is now also a Shareholder so for the guys who go to the AGM next year lucky you! You can meet her! I continue to buy, however I still do not understand how many NASDAQ listed Biotech's have no revenue, a smaller pipeline and are valued at many multiple of Chimed - Tesaro is a great example. Is it because the American market is not interested in Chinese Companies? I continue to build a stake and add to my not insignificant holding each month whilst watching our Company cleverly execute its strategy.

I am invested for the long term (another 10 years minimum) but for those of technical bent the ADR charts are pointing to a significant uplift IMO http://www.foxchart.com/index.php?symbol=hcm

H1 results and also Q2 results for NASDAQ due on the 2nd August - not long now and I hope to God these results do something to address the low volumes and lack of interest on NASDAQ! I like the fact there will be a live webcast on the 2nd, as is usual with most American listed Companies and is expected by the American markets every quarter. Clearly we can now look forward to quarterly earnings updates which I hope will start to get some interest.

Agree with everything you say gentlemen.... My wife is now also a Shareholder btw, and is looking forward to next years AGM - I suspect only so she can get me to buy her a nice lunch, but for that to happen I'd like to see us back the £27-28 range by then in order to pay for it! Agreed on the Buffett piece as far as the fact it does not yet fit a number of his criteria, and he appears to prefer consumer goods, or repeatable business models such as insurance, cement etc! One thing I really hope our Company tries its utmost to do and that is to retain all rights, IP and otherwise, to the candidates we currently own outright. I know we will need to partner for distribution outside of China but surely those are the ones that will deliver £££ on a grand scale. On another note, I am disappointed in the way we have been received by U.S. Investors at the moment. Below issue price again, very low volumes, Beigene have fared better even though their story is nowhere near as interesting as ours, and they are much smaller, although their market cap is ambitious. I can only hope as we near approvals on Savolitinib, Furquintinib and Sulfatinib (wholly owned), that our valuation starts to reflect the value of these drugs. Property windfalls are surely due any day now too? I continue to buy shares each month to build a large long term position.

I have a Warren Buffet investment timeframe eg. forever which also seems to be how the Directors view the Company More liquidity would be good but I am not helping the situation by buying each month but never selling

Jaingsu Hengrui I mean SHA:600276

interesting views Warwis, thanks IJust for info, Christian did mention Jianhsu Hengrui a few times at the AGM so I got the impression that ChiMed does see itself as similar in many ways, although with a more global focus.

But whilst the potential is significant, American Institutional Investors must think otherwise going on the ADR price, which is yet again below the issue price. Is it the fact we are a Chinese Company that they don't like?

Warsi, my somewhat optimistic peak sales valuation is based on the peak sales numbers in the Edison ADR research note but importantly it does not take into account HMPL-523 or HMPL-004, both of which are unpartnered and any number of candidates could of course be sold for a lot of cash - example Imbruvica (Pharamcyclics $21 billion). I've looked at all the Companies you've listed and they are very interesting, and I've established blended numbers for them including price to sales ratio, P/E & EPS. I've also noted Jiangsu Hengrui, a close Chinese rival, with revs of $1.5bn, P/E of 42 and market cap of $14bn. That is certainly the type of valuation I can envisage in the next 5 - 8 years....

My opinion is that we have 8 candidates with multiple targets and cancer types and looking at the data the leading ones, Savolitinib, Fruquintinib & Sulfatinib are already so far advanced and have already been well proven in terms of efficacy and are first in class or best in class. In other words these appear to be already good enough and the current Phase III data is coming very quickly now. Mark Slater's view is still that the Company is valued on the Commercial division and the Innovation division is effectively still free of charge to Investors. IF, and I know this is a big IF, all candidates launch I've calculated peak sales to be circa $1.5bn p.a. (and that factors in the 10% ROW and 30% China for most candidates), with corresponding EPS of circa $6.25 per share I have calculated a blended P/E across all the major competitors such as Amgen, Genmab, Incyte, Gilead, Celgene etc and that works out at 35. Circa $218 p/s (not ADR) = market cap of $13bn (8.7 x revs) which is in line with U.S. competitors (although not Chinese ones like Jiangsu Hengrui)

Deutsche Bank Depositary Receipts Virtual Investor Conference https://www.adr.db.com/drweb/5274.html Excellent presentation to the conference from our CEO on June 9th

Volume has been picking up in London - people or organisations building positions ahead of the H1 results??

The Interims will be extremely interesting - last years Half year point was:-  Revenue on continuing operations up 117% to $65.7 million (H1 2014: $30.3m).  Net profit attributable to Chi-Med equity holders of $2.3 million (H1 2014: $5.6m). We also have the property compensation due, which I believe will go to the JV's but could result in a special dividend to the Group......

indeed, the combination trial with Tagrisso is Global, U.S. Japan, Korea, Taiwan

ADR Volume tiny, clearly U.S. Investors are as disinterested as UK ones. I thought Christian did a U.S. Specialist Investor event or roadshow after the AGM......no impact yet. Is it lack of liquidity that is causing such malaise or are Institutional Investors waiting for our first drug launch prior to taking up a position I wonder......... Meanwhile I continue to buy

AZ extremely excited, so am I, but puzzling why the wider market isn't. I assumed specialist U.S Investors would be taking large positions ahead of the many major updates with the pipeline ....

Interesting update and according to Edison, based on the Company's own sales forecasts peak sales of Savolitinib could be around $171m pa for NSLC alone (based on 30% share in China and 10% ROW)