Member Info for daveycaferacer

indeed, based on my calculations, assuming certain approvals occur, GBP-USD remains as now and traditional biotech and Pharma valuation metrics occurs (P/S, P/E etc etc) I predict a share price of 6666p by mid 2020 Clearly it's based on a lot of assumptions and about a hundred metrics that could all change but it's nice to have a model to work with and a prediction to see how close I can get. That said my end of 2016 share price prediction was 3300p so it shows that share price predictions are almost a waste of time!

on the subject of Phase III results I see Beigene is up circa 8% today on one of their "few" drug candidates from their somewhat small pipeline commencing Phase III.

http://www.thepharmaletter.com/article/chinese-report-stresses-need-to-enhance-cancer-drug-innovation-and-access

We still have lots of news to look forward to in the next 2-3 months

There are no Form 6K's filed so some U.S. Investors may be unaware of the news in the last 24 hours

One would hope that the U.S market reacts a little more positively to all of the news that came out yesterday than the London market did, albeit on very small volume

The U.S. market probably would react favourably although they are closed for MLK day!

I think the U.S. market will like the fact our new NED was EVP Commercial Ops at Gilead, this should be very well received...... Will another Non Exec be announced shortly?

possibly but with regards to the Board changes, we were informed at the AGM that the Company would be looking to recruit one of two NEDs with global pharma experience, particularly with regards to late stage clinical development and bringing drugs to the global market. It looks as if Mr Carter has exactly that experience.

Correction, now 5 ;o-)

Four RNS on the same day is unprecedented, I need time to digest all these very positive updates!!

I doubt any President will want to be remembered for price controls and the resulting contraction of the R and D it would cause. If society wants cures and drugs that can exrens patients luves by months or years then people have to realise tje huge cost. I think price conyroks may be limited to basic drugs available on Medicare only.....

Unfortunately President elect Trump's speech yesterday contained some comments about how big pharma are ripping people off, and causing medicare costs to increase http://www.rawstory.com/2017/01/trump-says-pharmaceutical-companies-getting-away-with-murder/ Pharma has a big powerful lobby though and if the President wants to cap drug prices too much he will hopefully be told the consequences of such a move, which will surely include a reduction in R&D and the slowing down of the release of breakthrough treatments in the future

it seems the ADR's are very news driven .............. interesting times coming as we get more material news including our first ever NDA

Chi-Med Initiates HMPL-523 Clinical Trials in Hematological Cancer in China Study Start Date: November 2016 Estimated Study Completion Date: February 2020 That demonstrates why this is a long term investment and probably why we have few fickle, short term Private Investors, a situation I am very content with.

I agree Matt I think that IF all the catalysts in the HY16 report come to fruition and in particular we get Fruquintinib CRC NDA mid Year, together with FY16 results at or ahead of guidance we will be ahead of where we are now I have a further 10 year timeframe as I wish to enjoy some returns from the large revenues that will come about when we get peak sales for some drug candidates in or around 2025. By that time I believe we will be valued at many multiple of today's mcap

One of the main Companies I compare HCM to is Genmab, who are further forward on their development, and do not have a CP division. They trade on a trailing P/E of 106 and net margins of circa 51%. IP platform revs are 3 times ours and they generate cash but have an mcap of $10bn. That is the level I can see us achieving in the next few years....

Hi Warwis, I agree, I think the London SP got a bit carried away prior to the NASDAQ IPO, and thanks to the terrible market in early 2015 it seems the ADR price we managed to achieve was below what was expected, hence the pullback in the AIM share price. Since then obviously the 23rd June result helped as sterling fell against the USD. I've learnt a couple of important lessons with my investment in HCM. First I sold a very large holding in 2009 for around 200p per share, having held for a couple of years - major error of judgement although I did make a profit. Second, I've learnt a lot about timelines for Biotech and Pharma sectors and patience can provide handsome rewards. I look at Companies like Genmab and Alexion to see what can happen to valuations once a drug candidate comes to market. I notice Edison value the IP at $3.8bn + cash and Commercial platform giving a total theoretical valuation of $4.4bn I assume our revenues and associated earnings will grow exponentially from 2018 onwards if Savolitinib PRCC and Fruquintinib CRC are launched when expected. Our Chairman's recent purchases certainly sent the right messages to the market. More exposure would be good but I like the fact the Company is not pursued my small, short term, fickle spivy Private Investors. I remain a long term Investor with a large holding that I continue to increase on a regular basis.

Yes I saw that Matt, dropped back a bit but still currently at over $14.50 I believe/predict the ADR price will be starting with a 2 by this time in 2018 given all the material newsflow

As a long term Investor in Chi-Med with a minimum of another 10 years I'm just doing an end of year review and looking at what we have had and what we know is to come in H1 17. Of the list provided back in August we still have the following to look forward to:- Savolitinib Phase II data in PRCC. Sulfatinib Phase II data in pancreatic and extra-pancreatic NET. Fruquintinib Phase III top-line data in third-line or above colorectal cancer – potential NDA submission in mid-2017 3 potential Registration Trials:- Savolitinib Phase III in c-Met-driven PRCC. Epitinib Phase II/III in first-line patients with EGFR-mutant NSCLC with brain metastasis. Savolitinib Phase III in combination with Tagrisso® (osimertinib) in second-line NSCLC (T790M-/c-Met+). I can't think of a time where we had so much important data and events taking place in such a short period of time. Our first ever NDA and the first ever drug candidate to come to the global Oncology market developed in China.