Member Info for daveycaferacer

Yet again the Company delivers on its promises with todays material and significant news on Fruquintinib This is a significant stage in Chi-Med's history being the first ever Phase III completion and very shortly our first ever NDA A big day, let us hope the U.S. market starts to wake up to what the Company's future actually is.

ridiculous, ADR's now trading well below the issue price of $13.50 a year ago despite the huge progress very frustrating but simply prompts me to purchase more. I hope my instincts are right.

correction, on Monday the 13th

FY16 Results coming up next week! Is anyone else planning on attending the AGM this year?

No! and plenty of Biotech's in the U.S. with tiny pipelines and no revenue or cash generation are valued higher than us which is frustrating. I assume they're not interested because we'll never be a takeover target so they see limited upside?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/4048438-chi-med-looks-outside-comfort-zone

A good find Horta, thank you I must admit I'm a bit surprised at the lack of increase in our valuation as these pieces of important news start to feed through. That said, the real material ones are still to be announced. There's also quite a lot of potential deals in the U.S. at the moment and US Investors seem to be chasing those Companies at the moment (Tesaro for example)

Fruquintinib Phase III Complete https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02314819?term=fruquintinib&rank=7 Last Updated: January 24, 2017 Hopefully PIII data update shortly followed at some point by our first ever NDA.

BGNE now has a larger mcap than HCM which seems extremely odd to me. Either the market is under-valuing our large late stage pipeline, over-valuing Beigene's small largely early stage pipeline or a combination of the two. It seems U.S Institutional Investors still don't care about our potential. I wonder if it's because we are tightly held and will probably never be a takeover target. Even if that is driving sentiment surely our valuation will correct itself soon, starting with the first NDA?

Meanwhile Beigene has just hit an all-time high of $40.36 and an mcap of 1,626.54M They are valued the same as us, have less cash, no revenue to speak of, no commercial division and a much smaller, less developed piepline. All very strange, either they are over-valued by the market or we are under-valued and I think the next few months will reveal the answer to that question!!

It is now 11am and not a single ADR traded. Volumes seem to have tailed off somewhat. I assume those who wanted a position have taken it and are in for the long term (especially Funds). Very wise, although it does make things a little dull ;o-)

I agree, I also thought we'd be going down the Breakthrough Therapy route for c-met PRCC but there's no mention of BT in the RNS.......

correction.... Great updates today on Savolitinib PRCC and HMPL-453 I think we can still look forward to the following within the next couple of months:- Sulfatinib Phase II data in pancreatic and extra-pancreatic NET. Fruquintinib Phase III top-line data in third-line or above colorectal cancer – potential NDA submission in mid-2017. Likely to initiate three pivotal registration trials on two further drug candidates: Savolitinib Phase III in c-Met-driven PRCC. Epitinib Phase II/III in first-line patients with EGFR-mutant NSCLC with brain metastasis. Savolitinib Phase III in combination with Tagrisso® (osimertinib) in second-line NSCLC (T790M-/c-Met+).

Great updates today on Savolitinib PRCC and HMPL-423 I think we can still look forward to the following within the next couple of months:- Sulfatinib Phase II data in pancreatic and extra-pancreatic NET. Fruquintinib Phase III top-line data in third-line or above colorectal cancer – potential NDA submission in mid-2017. Likely to initiate three pivotal registration trials on two further drug candidates: Savolitinib Phase III in c-Met-driven PRCC. Epitinib Phase II/III in first-line patients with EGFR-mutant NSCLC with brain metastasis. Savolitinib Phase III in combination with Tagrisso® (osimertinib) in second-line NSCLC (T790M-/c-Met+).

I only have to look at Genmab, Tesaro and Regeneron to see what can happen to a Company's valuation when it submts NDA's or gets its first approval. mcap of $14bn by 2025 is my forecast/guess based on P/S, P/E, net margin metrics of combined Biotech and Pharma sectors with blended US, Europe and China numbers, 25% peak sales only for the drugs that are almost certain to be launched, so I think that's a conservative number to be looking at Forecasting sp and mcap is fraught with issues of course, and is a guessing game to a large extent, but I've tried to create a model with some science behind it. Would be interested if anyone else has done something similar....

As I am always going on about our valuation and I think the IP side is a bit undervalued I like to compare us to other Companies. Recently I've been looking in more detail at Tesaro TSRO and have captured the following:- mcap $11 billion 2 x PIII, 3 x PII, 3 x PI 1 Drug launched (mid 2016) - wholly owned but originally developed by another company 9 months revenue to end Q3 16 = $40m Cash at Q3 16 = $647m so that tells me their pipeline is smaller than ours and less developed, they have more cash (which they are burning) and they have 1 drug launched with more due this year. They appear to be a takeover candidate, hence the sp is up 40% YTD. It is this type of valuation that I believe we can achieve once we get one or more drugs launched, especially unpartnered ones such as Sulfatinib $10bn mcap within the next 5 years for us or is that wildly optimistic?

Likewise miti, although I continue to buy each month I do intend to sell my entire holding one day, in about 10 years time, at which point I expect the Company to be valued at $10bn +

Iam looking forward to the results on the 13th March Hopeful that we get some of our catalyst announcements prior to then too

1yr performance HCM +2.2% BGNE +28.9% I like to compare us to others and whilst BGNE is a very different and much smaller Company there seems to be something a little wrong with this kind of disparity. All I can think is our valuation will increase significantly when some of our key catalysts occur but would be interested in matt, miti or anyone else's opinion.

Beigene's mcap is now very close to ours, yet they only have 4 drug candidates, across 1 x PIII, 3 x PII and 3 x PII combination studies, and little revenue or cash generation at the moment. Either the market has over-valued Beigene, under-valued Chi-Med, or possibly a combination of both. I notice Beigene is up 12% since announcing their leading drug candidate has commenced a PIII trial. On that basis we can look forward to a number of +12%'s over the next couple of years......I hope.