Member Info for daveycaferacer

Here are some of Warren's well known quotes, both of which apply here:-

1. “Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing.”
2. "If you aren’t willing to own a stock for ten years, don’t even think about owning it for ten minutes”
3. “Invest Only in Companies You Understand”

Elunate on the NDRL may assist but that said, the NDA approval last September went completely unrecognised by the market. I am not sure what the Company can do apart from remaining focused on its vision, its strategy and executing its plan. A headline grabbing deal of some kind Galapagos style may be what is needed. I remain very supportive and continue to buy.

The price is now equivalent to March 2017 levels, which I find astonishing. Helpful to me in terms of continuing to build a significant holding but I never thought we would be at the same valuation over 2 years ago.

Having bought another tranche today the price has dropped again, a telling sign although very good value.

As a long term Investor my strategy has always been to buy, because I believe in the Company, its superb management , vision and its goals to deliver value and benefits to patients. Everything else including shareholder value will follow if the Company continues to deliver, which I have no doubt it will.

In the words of Warren Buffett:-

"If you aren’t willing to own a stock for ten years, don’t even think about owning it for ten minutes”

“Price is what you pay; Value is what you get.”

This will be a $20bn Company in the next 10 years in my view.

I continue to Buy.

Agreed Jatw, I really meant a theoretical paper loss but not in the accounts. I also think as the fundamental investment case has not changed the previous value will be recovered. I'm not sure if we still have any form of overhang from the disposal. Meanwhile Iam sure the Company continues to focusing on its strategy, its pipeline development and the things that are in its direct control. I'm also mindful that a number of Directors have made sizeable investments and senior management and staff have share options way above the current market price, so they will be as keen to see Shareholder value as outside Investors are. I will be buying on Monday.

You make some very interesting points on their disposal, which I doubt has gone according to plan. It seems to me that on the one hand they get some HCM debt off the balance sheet but on the other they've lost $730m of investment assets currently. From a Corporate transaction perspective this looks badly timed or badly advised.

I suspect the dominant Shareholder knows that the future value of the Business will be significantly more than the current $2.9bn, especially if the 4 leading drug candidates successfully launch globally. They may make further disposals in the future but are probably very happy to retain their significant holding for now.

Thankyou for posting Warwis and I agree that independence is preferable. It has been mooted we may sell some non-core assets so maybe that will be a way of further funding the pipeline. I hope a great set of H1 numbers and some good ramping of Elunate sales may help a recovery. Whilst Suruatinib NDA will be great news I always get the feeling the market is ultimately looking for progress on Savolitinib.

I assume another placing or other funding mechanism will be due soon, there cannot be much cash left....

Edison have today issued a new research note with an updated target price of $42.23 per ADR

https://www.edisongroup.com/publication/an-emerging-global-biopharma-2/24554/?utm_source=edison&utm_medium=Equisolve_pr&utm_campaign=HCM_05072019

Jatw - you mention the Seroquel dispute with Luye Pharma, which is a concern as it produced $17.2m in services fees in 2018. Q1 results extract:-

"As a result of the foregoing purported termination, we are no longer providing marketing and distribution services in respect of Seroquel". I hope we get an update on the legal position with respect to Luye on the 30th July.

I am not sure why they didn't wait for the HK listing, bearing in mind the delay is speculation at this stage. I would have thought they could have achieved a much better price if the secondary offer wasn't rushed. The overhang could take some time to clear. I look forward to getting back to the real story here, the pipeline and the progress in the clinic which will ultimately deliver significant value to Shareholders.

Based on previous daily volumes the overhang created by HHHL ould take a couple of months to clear. A good buying opportunity for long term Investors, in theory, assuming multiple positive pipeline updates and H1 numbers, but confidence of potential new investors will have been damaged

Nice summary here, and a reminder that whilst there are no proceeds here, there is no dilution either

https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/06/28/why-chi-med-stock-is-tanking-today.aspx

I doubt very much CKHH need any cash, they are simply disposing & taking profits whilst also increasing liquidity and removing the barrier that some Investors see when a significant shareholder has controlling rights. I am disappointed they could only get $24, as this has eroded significant Shareholder value.

Despite all the fantastic progress and recent achivements we are now at the same value we were 2 years ago

The original intention was to issue/sell 8.5m ADS's but the Company managed to place 12m, although the price was lower than I expected it to be

12,000,000 American Depositary Shares ("ADSs"), each representing five ordinary shares, par value US$0.10 each, of Chi-Med, at a price of US$24.00 per ADS

I may buy again today but the spread is still very wide when I get a live quote so will probably buy some ADS's when the U.S market opens