Member Info for daveycaferacer

Not long to wait now for dividend news, I wonder of the Company will hike it - those with a short position will need to pay it

Interim Ex-Dividend Date 14-Nov-2019
Interim Dividend Payment Date 05-Dec-

Another new biotech IPO filing in HK today. Innocare Pharma: https://www1.hkexnews.hk/app/sehk/2019/100581/documents/sehk191

watching but not waiting, added this morning, volume building and a good entry point after Woodford disposal I think

Yet again the Company delivers on its commitments to patients and investors, this time with Savolitinib in Gastric PII - a major milestone

Analysts forecast peak sales of $757m (ROW penetration 0.8%) and $326m (China penetration 1% ) of Savo in Gastric cancer - 14-18% tiered royalty ex-China & 30% flat rate China royalty on all product revenues.

Next news due in no particular order

1. Inclusion of Elunate on the NRDL
2. Sumbmission and acceptance of Surufatinib NDA
3. Savo / Taxotere® 2L gastric (VIKTORY)Ph. II Data
4. Fruqintinib 3L NSCLC (FALUCA)Ph. III Data*

I am struggling now to see the investment case going forward, despite so many "shovel ready" Projects. I've been reading back through announcements going back to 2014 and from then until 2016 everything was so bullish I was a little sceptical. For good reason as it appears Louis has always over-egged the pudding.

I agree that US-China relations and hK situation should not be an issue for HCM but unfortunately there has been an anti-China and anti-Chinese Company sentiment stoked up in the United States and I think that inevitably affects Companies such as Chi-Med. Ultimately the true value will come through.

NASDQ ADR's up circa 4%, there is some positive information by commentators on a U.S. - China trade deal

and I would think the best way to see new buyers from Asia is to proceed with the HK IPO

The pipeline has just been updated

https://www.chi-med.com/innovation-platform/our-pipeline/

London price being pushed down by the rise in sterling this week against the US Dollar

Current Headwinds
1. U.S. - China trade war
2. Hong Kong stability
3. Worldwide markets volatility
4. Trump China ADR de-listing threat (which has now been confirmed to be false)
5. China disliked by the U.S. and its Investment Community
6. Rise in GBP to USD

I would add that I see very few negatives, on balance I see many positives and I believe the true value of the Company will be realised at some point in the future. In the past it has sometimes over-extended, and often under-extended for long periods, followed b a significant increase. I will remain invested for a further 10 years.

amonesm, this note was released today

My strategy is to continue to Buy until I get my holding back into 6 figures (share qty), which is imminent. So my target is not a price but size of holding. Therefore I am still buying at the moment until I reach that position.

Edison has just released up updated Note on Chi-Med

https://www.edisongroup.com/publication/surufatinib-nets-solid-data-at-esmo-2/25275

We value HCM at $5.7bn ($42.78/ADS) vs $5.7bn ($42.62/ADS) previously. We now forecast surufatinib launch in China in late 2020 (previously early 2021) based on an October 2019 China NDA submission. We have increased 2020 R&D expenses and rolled forward our model in time.

sorry, I meant H2 2019 of course.....

Much higher volume than usual, often occurs just prior to some important news ;o-) and here's what's left for H1 2019
Savolitinib VIKTORY PII data - Global
Surufatinib China NDA submission
Possible NDRL inclusion for Elunate

JD, did you mean 0.1p?

Today's RNS is a very interesting development as Innovent's Tyvyt® (sintilimab injection) was developed jointly between Innovent and Lilly, so there's now a great 3-way tie-up. What is most interesting to me is that this is going to be a Global development, not just China.

all very good points and info dsrt, thankyou, let's hope the Company really starts to deliver something now

yes amones, thx for the reminder, I'd forgotten about that, it went live in June this year, although an LSE listed Company has to issue CDR's on the Shanghai Exchange in order for Chinese Investors to invest (appears to be similar to U.S ADR's)

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-7187463/Britain-Chinas-stock-exchange-deal-creates-new-opportunities-far-ground-breaking.html