Member Info for daveycaferacer

GBP's appreciation against the U.S. Dollar is clearly causing the Ordinary share price lower

Futures up 0.10% on average so looks like main indices in the United States will be opening up today ;o-)

I suspect and hope Clinicians will ultimately prefer a cleaner, safer drug that has been developed in China by a Chinese firm, albeit one that has partnered with a U.S. Bioharma.

CRC 3L Peak sales forecast $199m / 2022

I read it as 7,938 against a pre NRDL price of 21,966 so a reduction of crica 64% to be on the NDRL and patients get partially reimbursed

Our Company has just posted an updated Corporate presentation

https://www.chi-med.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/pre191201.pdf

UK - av volume 69,000 today's volume 202,000
NASDAQ volume also ramping up significantly

Surprise news on the way? Maybe a disposal of a non-core asset, HK IPO update????

A new Trinity Delta note also came out on Friday

https://www.trinitydelta.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Hutchison-China-Meditech-Lighthouse-291119.pdf

Our Chi-Med valuation is $5.14bn ($38.55/ADS) or £3.95bn (£5.93/share).

An interesting article from today's scmp on China, and HK IPO'd Biotechs

https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/3036604/shares-victor-lis-ck-life-more-double-multi-year-high-after

https://www.edisongroup.com/publication/elunate-receives-china-nrdl-inclusion-2/25693/

Valuation: $5.7bn or $42.78/ADS

Our valuation of HCM is unchanged at $5.7bn and make no changes to our forecasts. We use a risk-adjusted net present value method to discount future cash flows for the innovation platform (savolitinib, fruquintinib, surufatinib, epitinib, HMPL-523 and HMPL-689) valuation of $4,131.4m.

Great observation Jatw, I also notice the spread in London narrows once NASDAQ opens too. I could make some money trading that pattern if my Broker didn't have such sky high charges for dealing in ADR's! Let's hope we get back to the price we were a year ago - £5.80

I am very bullish going into 2020, as the Company continues to deliver

NASDAQ closes at 13:00 EST 18:00 BST today

no market reaction today as it is closed for Thanksgiving, also short trading hours tomorrow 09:30 - 13:00 only

Wonderful news, the last piece of major news due this year, as expected the Company continues to deliver on its commitments

Whilst the price will be lower than the current $3260 per cycle it should significantly multiply the number of patients. From memory Apatinib is around $1800 per cycle so I suspect we will be around that level.

Great interview on Bloomberg TV yesterday with Brad Loncar providing his latest insights into China Biotech

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2019-11-26/there-is-a-bright-future-in-china-biotech-loncar-investments-s-ceo-video

Interesting that a disposal of the OTC Business has been mooted a few times now, so we have that and a HK listing as probably being the two most likely options. As the pipeline matures and associated revenues and earnings increase it would appear an OTC business is not a logical fit any more. Two very different types of businesses requiring different focus and approach.

Still no NRDL yet, but I'm hopeful it will happen very shortly and that Elunate is on the list...

BGNE has done a great job with the first ever global launch of a China developed drug, Chi-Med could certainly be next with Savolitinib

Nice comments from Christian about the potential HK IPO, which sounds like it could happen at a certain inflection point. I am sure that opening the Company up to home and pan-Asia Investors will be a very good thing.

Chi Med CEO Christian Hogg was interviewed by CNBC Asia recently following the acceptance of the surufatinib NDA in China for the treatment of patients with advanced non-pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (“NET”).

Below is a link to the full interview which discusses the opportunity for surufatinib in China and plans to develop the drug for the global market including US and Europe. Surufatinib is Chi-Med’s second in-house discovered novel oncology drug to reach NDA submission in China, and if approved will become the first to be launched by Chi Med’s own oncology salesforce.

https://www.chi-med.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/15112019_Christian_Hogg_CHI_MED_1.mp4

U.S. equity futures climbed along with stocks globally after China said it will tighten intellectual property rules, a move aimed at boosting the chances of a trade deal between the two largest economies.

This must surely be good news for China related stocks

I agree Jatw, great analyis...... critically my understanding is that Orphan Drug Designation opens doors in the FDA and provides much greater access and priority

Orphan Drug Designation offers the following incentives:
•
Waiver of the user fee (application fee) upon filing a marketing application (the 2016 fee for an application that includes clinical data is $2,374,200 and establishment fees are an additional $585,200)37;
•
Tax credits for clinical research undertaken by the sponsor to generate required data for market approval (deduct 50% of clinical trial costs)38;
•
Marketing exclusivity for an approved drug for 7 years after product approval39;
•
Protocol assistance from either CDER or CBER39; and
•
Financial assistance from the Office of Orphan Products Development (OOPD), which provides up to $250,000 per year for up to 3 years for phase 1 trials and up to $500,000 per year for up to 4 years for phase 2 and 3 trials.40

Today's news is probably one of, if not the biggest, most material in the Company's history. I need to digest it further but for anyone unfamiliar with the the U.S. FDA Orphan Drug program here is a brief overview:-

https://www.fda.gov/about-fda/office-clinical-policy-and-programs/office-orphan-products-development