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Thank you lse99 for your informative and interesting summary. I have also been watching this one for some time and am now invested again. A few months ago it was down in the 60p range and i had bought at 90p so was wondering if I had made a mistake until it came back to 100 and I cashed in. I think of myself as a LTI but had to cash in due to a sudden need for fluidity. Anyway, up it went and I regretted my sale until recently when it dropped. I had some cash to buy back in at 150 and 120. Some friends listened to my going on and on about versarien and Graphene so they bought in the first instance at 65 and the second instance at 125. My friends are impressed. we will all be much more impressed when the fast approaching "Age of Graphene" arrives. Graphene aerogel, Graphene enhanced batteries powering flying graphene vehicles, Super-insulated buildings, graphene fibre reinforced concrete structures, Superconductive graphene cables replacing copper wiring, Flexible screens and floppy computers, not to mention new olympic records in a number of sports, shimmering silk materials much stronger and more durable than ever imagined. How can this ever NOT be a good share to be invested in?
This is not chartist fantasy. It is not anything more than O-level maths. If you look at the sorry old (0.23) SP on 30 August and the SP today (0.40), the difference is +0.17p in exactly 6 weeks. Extrapolate the same simple gradient to 28 March 2019, I make it a SP of 1.08p. This is without any fancy chart analysis. People have been guessing away at lovely numbers recently, and I don't blame any of you for dreaming but I put this forward as is the baseline of expectation. I will be more than happy if this modest gain can be realised by then, but like everyone else, I hope the gradient will be a lot steeper. You probably think I'm boring, but Geologists like to be boring. Boring holes all over the place and proving up reserves. :)
Thanks Mole, yet again for your words of encouragement. The Geology under Block 12 really becomes most interesting when you consider the implications of gas driven conventional flowing light sweet oil in Zone 19. Here we are struggling and fracking away in the zones above it when sitting below are zones 19, 25 and the Gareji. These have not even been included in the reserve picture and you can't really do that without hard evidence but it really makes them an even bigger target for further exploration. That's what excites me even more, knowing that exploration of that sort is a possibility with super majors providing financial support for it.
Madpunter, well done mate. That's some clever extrapolation. My family came from the valleys a generation ago, and I seem to be the only one of the offspring that made it to University. Too many write off the Welsh as sheepsh***ers and rugger bu**ers but some of us are smart enough to invest in FRR anyway. :)
Apologies for being unable to recall too much after the meeting, yesterday. One thing that really stuck in my mind was the comment about the super majors being happy with the gas, when so many PI's were disappointed. a few of us were not discouraged, though, and for those of little faith I have this to say. https://lookaside.fbsbx.com/file/letting%20it%20blow.bmp?token=AWzHNEJxAajLcLyHHYOLma2Uj_d-Yt3yhTo6Glxu1SGTcgceLPNy224bZcV5JX__hhjCVrpXBj8jFIo95vkYuLMmNw8VVaLyRlpGAqSg6Y3opQEVvmHsw0WrJnljix35X7LkOCfY35RaA8VtMcQnePL1
Super major success. So many positives. Reasons to be cheerful fo sure. If I had more money to invest it would be here!
Aubree and Puds and all the other stalwart long term investors in this share. Take heart. The plus side is extremely positive. We all have high expectations, but we keep them in check, even though it is a lot of fun to let off steam and speculate what the upside might look like, sometimes. The oil and gas are there in the ground and there is proof that they both flow out at commercial rates. That proof is known by the two majors and what to do about it is under active discussion. Let the shorters and day traders mess about, but hold on for the day of judgement for them and get ready to laugh. Last year's Christmas presents may come at any time. Just think about it: How long are the negotiations with the majors likely to take? We can have fun guessing about that. I am going to hazard a guess that the action will all be in the new year. Maybe Christmas is too early BUT I remember last year's gleeful anticipation and disappointment when Santa got delayed. We can dream that maybe it will be this year instead. There was speculation about that. Dare we talk about Christmas presents again? Sure we can. Maybe one or two naysayers will taunt us, but who isn't used to that and hardened to it? By next Easter, I really think a lot will have changed for the better.
I have been watching the conversation about the kickmuck Messiah person with some curiosity. There is certainly plenty of knowledge there and familiarity, too much for a newcomer, perhaps. Intelligence, a bit of mystery too. At the risk of sounding a bit like inspector Cluseau, I suspect he may be someone we know, but cleverly disguising themselves. What is his mission here? At first he used language I would have expected to come from Dustin, but then came a bit of smoke and mirrors and it seemed like someone else. I am a geologist, too, as some may be aware from the January shareholders meeting. All I can suggest is that we listen well to what he says and do our own research as usual. Be mindful that his motives may not be the best and hopeful that they are to everyone's advantage. btw Geodav is not me if anyone is wondering. I have known from the time I first invested that block 12 has much more than just potential. It's a matter of time in 2018 before we break through the 1p ceiling IMO. I look forward to seeing some of you again on thursday and having a little chat with Dustin about the geology and Zaza too if they aren't too busy.
Fire, they could have said no. But they said yes and entered into an agreement with us which they appear to have broken. (Pending a legal decision to confirm that) There was plenty of scope for them to make good money on their deal with us, but they opted to play dirty pool, by the look of it. Frrryday night is shark and chips night for me. :)
Karma time for the sharks of YA, the shorter sharks and the day trading skum that swarm every time we have some reason to rise on merit. Rising on merit, as we are PAINfully aware now, was stifled, disguised, masked and buried with deception on so many occasions. We have alluded to this repeatedly. I am thinking back to all those positive announcements since Zaza took over. The good drilling results, the positive testing results, the gas flares and most recently the two majors in discussions with us. The pain is that this share price, without such malicious interventions , could and should have been at least double the amount it is now. The drop from about 0.6 to 0.22 was completely manipulated and artificial. Without this manipulation, it is hard to guess where we should have been. My guess is that we should be over a penny and ready to take off to where we really belong, in the 2p-5p range, as many have been saying. Those who kept the faith in the oil and gas deposits that this company will develope in Georgia and later in Moldova will be rewarded if they hold.
Indeed, why sell? After a little while, the dispute will be settled and YA will be sent packing with their tails between their legs. During the sideshow distraction with YA, many things will be happening, all of which are good for the shareholders: Oil will continue to flow and be sold, however long it takes to settle. Negotiations will continue to take place with the two majors with major benefit to the holders. Further extended testing will continue, with more good results to show at the month end report extraordinaire. Who will be the losers? People who sell their shares. The shorters who got trapped and finally the poor unfortunate ones who sold out because they did not believe. Hold!
I would like to think the after hours buys and sells are orders for the next mornings action, but to hoist the Sp up from 0.36 to 0.39 is for certain the result of a monster buy. Maybe the majors resent short-sellers and MM's manipulating the SP at a time when negotiations are in progress. Maybe tomorrow we'll see some shorters and MM's taking serious punishment. Hopefully so much that they leave us alone. We can hope. :) tomorrow let the games begin!
Is this the two Majors leading us to the top of the hill? I know it's a bit early to speculate, (if you'll pardon the double entendre) what with sharks circling around us and some padding out the board with verbage. Whenever we have an early rally, we have to suspect it could be day traders loading up and riding positive sentiment. Let's hope today they get their posteriors frrrazzled!
The question "will the Majors walk away from the new Shah Deniz" is one worth answering. Geologically, Block 12 is a continuation west of the same formation as Shah Deniz. The same horizons which host the huge oil and gas deposits of the Caspian pass under Azerbaijan into Georgia in Block 12. There is nothing new here, but maybe investors will start to wake up to the facts that are presented very well on the FRR website for all to see. The two Majors will have done their homework and will know that this block in Georgia is not just a new place with potential...it is an extension of a well known oil and gas play. Why should they walk away from this? They have already shown serious interest. They know what is there and they want a piece of it. Simple as. IMHO as a geologist.
Several of our faithful few (including yours truly) have speculated on the possibility of NDA's with majors over the past months, during the steady and unreasonable decline in the SP during no news. It does seem obvious now why there was no news and what was brewing. For one Major to be interested enough to get involved, there must be confidence in the proof of concept. For two majors to be involved, I would say there is a very good chance that one of the two is technically experienced. We are allowed to guess, so I am going to go with a technical partnership with BP and the other one could be the big money provider, a company with a lot of spare cash to inject in wellfield development. So what happened today was part of the preparation of the launchpad of a much more financially secure joint venture of some sort. Say goodbye to the debt financing scenario very quickly, but don't expect any announcements about it right away. They will come sure enough when they are ready. Probably one or two nice ones over the next couple of months. Then, before the end of this year the RNS's will be flying in thick and fast as the development strategy falls into place. Its a pretty good 3-way scenario coming up: Technical expertise and consulting from one JV partner, solid financial backing/investment/market management from a second and a good solid handshake with us as the operators from all of them. Happy days ahead. Today's jump in the share price was just a sigh of relief. Next comes a linear real growth of operations over the next two to three years.
He says: "Frontera has announced that it has entered into non-disclosure and data exchange agreements with two industry majors and is currently progressing with technical work and commercial discussions regarding possible transactions involving a farm-out or a JOA within its Block 12 holdings in Georgia. Whilst these discussions are at an early stage they have moved ‘a big step forward’ so now FRR is conducting EWT’s to better establish production capabilities. The detailed report shows which zones of which wells are being tested and co-mingled with further news to come.
This is very good news that the shareholders have been waiting for for some time and it is understandable why the company could not discuss it. It certainly explains why I havent had a chance to speak to Zaza lately although I am hoping to soon. The shares are up a ripping 60%+ today but still only at 0.38, they deserve better, maybe when these discussions come to fruition, the real value that I believe they should be trading at will be realised." - I am posting this in case nobody else saw it in the excitement of the rocket flight today. :)
Keep calm and carry on, is what I am doing. I have not sold. I will not sell with no reason to part with my shares. The company is producing oil and gas and selling it at a profit, well above their operating cost per barrel. They have plenty more wells to develop and increase production, too. FRR has good management (Zaza) and technical knowhow (Dustin) so I have confidence. I am waiting for a windfall and when it comes i will be relieved to know that I will be able to soon purchase twice as many shares as i was expecting, for the same amount of money. If the SP drops any more, it will not be fun to watch but some of those golden tickets people are letting go of will be gladly collected by yours truly. As for possible big companies waiting to buy FRR, I think it is a real possibility that grows more and more as the SP drops. This is a case where silence is golden. Silence. No news. Just remember no news can be good news...
Your Royal highness, UD2 was a 30 year old hole that was redeveloped and found gas. That is not dusty in my view. It may not have been stable enough to guarantee delivery but it is improtant to hear what Zaza says about it. He says they are seriously considering drilling another hole next to it with much better hole stabilisation by proper cementing as one option, or sidetracking as another possibility. In other words, they liked what they saw and want to make a success of it, in a similar way to how they improved on T39. This company is all about continuous improvement IMO.
What makes no sense whatsoever is the lack of a sensible response by the share price. I can only assume that can only head North suddenly and in a big way when something convinces the punters to stick their £££'s in this. I am guessing that the trigger will be further positive financial proof that income is flowing in as the oil and gas flow up.
Thanks GeoDave, good to hear some strong support from an Earth Scientist like myself. I had somehow missed Zaza's LSE interview which you kindly linked for us. The best news is that we are at last moving into commercial wellfield development as a producer of oil and also soon gas in Georgia with the infrastructure to distribute/sell the products. The plans for further development at a sensible measured rate in the 4th quarter are encouraging, involving sidetracking and improving existing well bores. The multiple zones and the extra bonus of zone 19 is a major plus factor, and then the long term adds gas to the picture in a bigger way by late 2019/2020. All good. This is really proof of concept time and I expect to see that emblazoned in headlines before the end of this year and in the financial results in the years to come.
Icewine 2 sidetracking ops will start sometime when they sort out the best way to attack it, based on what data they have from the vertical bore. I am just a modest LTH with plans to invest more in this when funds are available later this year. So its ok for me that the SP should be down at these levels. I would like to know what the schedule for the sidetracking will be when the company lets us know. The probability of hitting multiple pay zones in the HRZ along strike is much higher in a sidetrack well than one that intersects the zone once perpendicularly. I am not unhappy that they made that decision and IMO they have reported everything in a very unbiased way.