Member Info for dasv

Hi moneyman, 1. I don't think any of you are numpty's! 2. attempt at explanation:- During his tenure at the Fed, Alan Greenspan relaxed lending rules allowing those with bad credit ratings to borrow money to buy houses. This led to a boom in house prices in the US from 2001 onwards. Those loans to people with bad credit ratings are known as "subprime" loans/mortgages. Typically they carried a higher interest rate. This higher rate was intended to offset the risk of lending to people who could perhaps not pay the loan reliably. Banks parcelled up these loans and sold them to investors, funds, hedge funds etc as high yielding Bonds in Collateralised Debt Obligations (CDO's). Typically a hedge fund would borrow yen to buy these financial products. The top slice (the best credit rated) part of this debt was given a triple A rating. I.e. it was sold to investors as being "safe". Gradually this summer, financial institutions have worked out that it wasn't. On top of this financial whiz-kids came up with very complex financial derivatives in CDO's such as CDO-squared, CDO-cubed. I haven't got my head round these yet, and I suspect I am not alone. Recently some hedge funds which were trading CDO's realised that their funds were worthless. Bear Stearns had a couple and the CEO was forced to resign. Today BPN Paribas suspended trading in three of its funds and has prevented investors from redeeming cash. IKB in germany also fell v

Got this one wrong didn't I. I knew about sub prime back in spring - how Greenspan had increased the money supply, how sumprime CDO's were being traded in increasingly complex derivative products. What I hadn't considered was that SVS's sp would be impacted by fears that subprime would spread. The SVS sp is down 14% or so over 2 days and finished today at 462p. I bought a slice at 466 earlier on. I still contend that until there is any evidence of corporate earnings being affected fears over credit and subprime lending are overblown but understand those who view contrarian position as risky.

leedskier: very interesting. if the damage can be contained within the bank sector the fears evident in the markets on stocks in unrelated sectors should be temporary.

The US government is unexpectedly selling off some of their reserve Uranium. Probably a well-timed point for them to do this and they no doubt need the money to help prop up the ailing dollar ;) In the long term however this will be insufficient to fill the gap in supply for uranium in the future. My view on uranium is very long term - I hold GCL and plan to to keep it for the next 5-10 years.

I see from my watchlist that corac has now broken 55p. It's been a good share that has countered the negative trend on the market this summer. The market awaits results in September and news of various development milestones for their downhole gas compressor technology. I watch with interest though have not dipped in as yet. let's see if it breaks 60p.

I feel my last statement should carry a health warning: right now the market is ignoring company fundamentals. Despite excellent earnings coming in from a variety of sectors the general mood is negative. The reasons for this are well documented in the financial press but stem from a fear that a squeeze on credit will affect companies in a variety of ways: it will become less easy to borrow money for mergers and acquisitions, customers will have less money to spend if credit is hard to secure, and also that hedge funds will close open positions to safeguard against losses trading subprime debt. In a market like this many are fleeing for safe haven securities - mainly highly liquid securities like cash. We will see the tide rushing out and then rushing back in as the cash that has left the table gets put back on. The question is "where are we in that cycle?". Has the tide turned, or is it still receding. For me it's 50/50 and from what I've read, analysts are divided as to the potential effect of the credit squeeze on global markets.

I would argue the same case for ASM, BRR, TMC. But then again I hold all of them so I would say that!

just market sentiment IMHO. A lot of quality companies are being bashed by general fear of exposure to equities with the threat of a credit squeeze hanging over the global economy. It's tempting to both bail out of any current positions - conversely it's also tempting to buy in/average down at these prices. I don't hold SOLA at present but the current sp looks attractive as an entry point.

fines seemingly brushed off by the market (my worry was that the market would overreact to the them).

Debts.co.uk PLC said it sees full-year performance in line with board and analyst expectations as trading has been strong in all areas, and revenues and earnings 'have held up satisfactorily,' despite pressures on the individual voluntary agreement market. The debt management company said its board views the current year with confidence. Debts.co.uk also said it will continue to 'actively seek' acquisition opportunities and that current market dynamics of rising interest rates, house price uncertainty, increased debt and lower disposable incomes provide a positive demand scenario. 'Whilst there still remains some uncertainty in relation to IVAs in England and Wales, the outlook for Scottish Trust Deeds, debt management programmes, secured loans, bankruptcies and sequestrations are extremely positive,' it said. Finance head Stuart Cumberland will now take responsibility for strategy and commercial development, the company said, adding that details regarding the post of finance director will be released as soon as the individual completes negotiations relating to the termination of his current employment contract.

Excellent trading statement. Nice little stock this:- Helesi sees H1 revenue up 65 pct to 22 mln eur; positive for remainder of yr LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Helesi PLC said it expects first-half revenue to grow about 65 pct from a year earlier to around 22 mln eur, and is positive for the remainder of the year. The Greece and UK based waste management products manufacturer said the revenue expectation reflects strong organic growth in its traditional manufacturing businesses, the impact of the waste management services business, and an exceptionally good first-half performance from the merchandise sector. Plastic products have benefited from strong markets in Italy and South East Europe for the larger containers, the company added. It said it expects full-year results of its waste management services business to be in line with market forecasts. The company expects the new plant in Italy to come on stream in the second half of 2008. Helesi will announce its half year results for the period to June 30 on Sept 10.

yes indeed... things all over the shop at the moment. Don't know if you are interested, but a couple of holdings I have which have held up well in the recent maelstrom are MTA and CEY (ISA'ble). I think MTA has plenty of upside potential whereas CEY is a relatively slow grower with potential resistance at 60p but will breach £1 in 2008.

excellent. needed that. Was wondering when the "imminent" announcement would be announced... All we need now is some market interest in RCG again, eh chan? ;)

yes have heard that rumour too. Apparently the short selling was done from the Russian side. Perhaps a leak from the authorities to the shorters, perhaps they were in league, perhaps only a rumour.

You were both to right to bail, and I was wrong to hold. I sold up in April went 100% cash and now eventually find myself 90% invested and extremely stung by recent price movements. Virtually all shares I might add. Only CEY, AU., CHL, RVA, PANR, MTA, LEAD putting up a fight. RCG sub 90?

fraid not. Not my worst performer today - however TMC down 16% or so. If I sold everything that dropped 3% today I'd have nothing left in my portfolio ;) Scary to lost roughly 10k in profit in a week. Perhaps should follow Davius in bailing. I think the market is jumpy on the basis of no real facts however and that's stopped me selling. The worry coming from the analysts is that they are not sure whether subprime problems in the US will be contained or will affect other asset classes. People are just taking this as a cue to bail and in retrospect was the right thing to do. 20% down on IEC now. Overall portfolio only up 6% on start of tax year. Peaked at 20% a while back.

Hi Jonty, yeah I hung on - should have sold when they hit 500p but thought they would go higher and held on. I think at these prices its a fair buy. It has been aggressively shorted since the 500p peak and I think a lot of the shorters have covered and moved on elsewhere. Also like the look of LND and BRR in terms of Nickel plays (nickel wise I hold LND, BRR, TMC and RGM).

keep an eye on wildhorse energy (ASX:WHE) it's up 78% since 15th June 2007. Uranium play that is one of the major holdings in the Geiger Counter fund - looks like a potential standalone purchase.

yeah leed, Falkland's been on my main watchlist for years, unfortunately hadn't taken a punt.

Lots of profit taking after marked up at 959p this morning following results ahead of analyst expectations. The news that they most likely won't be making further acquisitions this year may be reason for bail out and drop of 6% but still looks like a nice ISA hold.