Member Info for dasv

this one's taken a bashing. hope you guys are already out.

hello all, I thought I'd join you for the ride. In at 13.85. This company is asset heavy and one of the concerns is that the money won't be spent wisely, but judging by performance so far, we can be optimistic. Rare to have a growth stock with the balance sheet so rosey.

Davius, i was just going to post here to advise a watch for the bouncce scenario. Unfortunately I hold quite a few of these at an average of 55 or so. Fortunately my losses so far are more than compensated by my profits on AU. (phew). Considering the lack of news related to the sp movement, I think we are seeing a snowball of profit taking rather than some information driven revaluation of the company. If you can time your entry right, I think the chances of profit are good.

Hi Chan - great results from AU today as you may know:- LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Data search company Autonomy Corp PLC beat expectations with an 89 pct surge in adjusted first-quarter pretax profit driven by strong organic growth, and said it would demerge its consumer division. The unit, to be listed on the Alternative Investment Market as Blinkx, is to be spun-off as its focus on consumer-directed search services differs from Autonomy's focus on enterprise applications, the company said in a statement. Autonomy will hold about 10 pct of the new company's shares. Its quarterly pretax profit before one-time items rose to 19.5 mln usd from 10.3 mln usd earlier, as revenues rose 17 pct to 65.5 mln usd. Analysts had forecast adjusted pretax profit of 18 mln usd on revenues of 65 mln usd. Including exceptional items, the pretax profit rose to 16.1 mln usd from 7.1 mln usd

chan, this is most mysterious. The fundamentals for RCG look extremely solid for this sector. £70m sales, £19m EBIT, Net Assets of £60m, and the company is in a growth phase! Yet the sp has nose-dived from a peak of 152 to a current sp of 104. And the only reason is the estate of Ms Nina Wang?? Is there something I don't know, or are RCG share holders a very jumpy bunch? Perhaps there was a massive wave of profit taking, as this stock has been a strong grower? Any thoughts?

yes it's all got a bit nervy at the moment. I bought a lot of SVS today though at its lowest price, after reading the SVS annual report again early this morning. Hope I was right to do so. Also doubled my AU a few weeks ago. Both seem to be operating in a trading range with a slightly upward trend. Both very good companies IMHO. Autonomy must get a lot of USD revenue so is it sensitive to dollar fluctuations like (for example Ashtead AHT- which I also hold)?.

Chan, do you think this explains the 3.6% rebound in the mid-afternoon? AU often announces deals - no mention of the size of this one in the RNS?

Hi Davius, I'm out of this at the moment. I think it's one where you have to keep your ear to the ground and be ready to move swiftly. Right now have been too busy in my non-trading/investing life. It's still on my watch list, and personally I am bullish about IEC's chances of regaining it's previous valuation.

results out soon. Perhaps best to wait until after. It will reduce your risk slightly. But ignore me if you are up for a punt on the market reaction to the results. E.g. the sp could bounce really high, or it could zip down too. It's a volatile share so you may be best averaging by making multiple buys over time if you are swing trading or long term holding. e.g. halve your original amount so you can average down or buy more on an upswing. (All in my opinion by the way - this is just what I do with respect to SOLA. Others may disagree and may be right).

steady buying pressure and the upswing continues.

...pockets with LNG, the more it falls. However this also increases your exposure to the stock, and therefore increases the risk of the investment. It is also worth considering that many advise against buying on a down trend. Sometimes you can get lucky (e.g. I did recently with SOLA - bought 6 times as it was falling, and made out with plenty of profit within 2 months). Othertimes you are just pouring your cash down the drain... Tricky to call the bottom basically ;) All the best

When I hear questions like "will it go back up?" I like to remember this Warren Buffet quote "The stock market is a wonderfully efficient mechanism for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient." In other words, yes I think LNG will eventually rise to above 24p. The only question is, in what timespan? ;) It is possible the recent weakness is a result of short term traders - (swing traders) - losing their patience, and moving onto other targets. In an effort to at least break even or make out with some profits, they ditch the stock and move their money somewhere else. In the case of account trades (e.g. T+10, T+20), they have to settle after n days and when they do, it can cause a run on the stock. In a falling trend on an sp, it is wise to look at the accounts. Examine the fundamentals of the business. The growth rate, the revenue, the profit if any. It is my understanding that LNG's forward P/E is low and that the fall from grace was way overdone. Hence my long position on this share. As everyone says on these forums, don't take my word for it, but that is what I believe personally. Another warren buffet quote is ""Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." So if we are to take his advice, one should gradually fill our pock

jonty, glue, yes advfn is interesting on nlx huh? boiler rooms, shady deals with NAD directors, possible suspension in early May. I hope the EGM works out and new NOMADS are appointed. At least that will avoid a suspension. Company has been criminally overvalued but am concerned that even at .3p it might not be a bargain, particularly if the share is suspended. All the best.

I think its time to buy back in. The fundamentals look absolutely excellent for this company. Low PEG, high net asset worth, strong growth, niche market not subject to effects of interest rate rises (luxury goods buyers do not buy on credit). I'm buying back in tomorrow, after taking profit recently and having bought in initially in September 2006. Interim is in June, and I anticipate a run-up of the sp in advance of these results.

Equally i could have bought in dec 05 at 50p and then held and then to my horror see the sp plummet to 20p. and then bail out of sheer frustration. If your argument is that if someone had got their timing right they could have made money on this share then it is a weak one, as we can say that with hindsight one can make a fortune out of just about anything by getting the timing right. The reality is that without a time travelling DeLorean, the only time we get timing perfect is by chance - yes we can improve our odds with awareness of the market and analysis, but companies like this are speculative investments, in that poor fundamentals still attract investors in the hope of future growth. I think the recent RNS's are indeed positives, but relative increases are not as important as absolutes when the earnings are so low. The old numbers are not in the price at all - revenues are too low, costs are too high, they keep running out of cash. Future growth is already priced in. I hope by now you can understand my point now. No doubt you will "win" and get the "last word", because I am tired of repeating myself, as are no doubt, the readers of this thread.

that's exactly what I've done GedW. I've read the historic data, read their annual report, looked up hemscott analysis: I've done my own research. And I think this company is not pushing the right buttons YET. That's the whole problem. Little revenue, massive investment, no assets, competitive field already land grabbed by bigger players. But as I said, I will buy on sufficiently good news in an RNS to perceive this company as having turned the corner.

A gearing of zero just indicates that the company has financed itself by shareholders rather than some form of lending. The only rationale for investing in this company would be that you believe they can grow very quickly and grab a sufficient market share of the OLTP market beating off any competitors. It is not a Unique Selling Point that they can clear in multi-currencies. Datacash has been able to do this since 2001 at least. This, in my view, still makes this share very speculative. My policy will be to monitor both Datacash and EPO. Datacash, I will buy on weakness (I think they are currently a hold - with a trailing PE which does not reflect the problems they will have restoring their revenue to pre-US gambling legislation levels). With EPO, I will monitor, and will buy only on a breakout scenario. I.e. very positive RNS that they are about to turn profitable.

site reformatted last message:- ROCE = 158% therefore:- 1.58 = -£6.05m / -£3.833

yes but the return on capital figure is pretty misleading. It's high for all the wrong reasons. ROCE = EBIT ___________________________________ Total Assets - Current Liabilities ROCE = 158% = 1.58 = -£6.05m _______ -£3.833 Basically it means they are burning cash and have nothing to show for it.

At a market cap of £18.55m I think we can say that future growth has already been priced in to the sp. Fully prepared to be proved wrong though, and this is on my watchlist.