Member Info for DASUT

Spoon I hear your frustration and agree there has been as Tibbs explains some rubbish management and misrepresentation and short term gains creating long term disasters.
Results when mining can be achieved by short cuts and this is what has happened at Sukari what we appear to have is a narrow hole in the ground when we need a wide hole in the ground, so to get the hole wider they are having to employ a contractor to widen the hole (over simplifying but trust you get my drift).
4 or 5 years of creating this issue isn't going to be corrected quickly and results aren't going to improve for some time. As gnome rightly says strip ratio of over 10:1 means 10 times as much waste producing 0 ounces and at a direct cost to the bottom line. Unfortunately this is a necessary evil and nothing Horgan or any hands dirty miner can sort out any quicker unless they throw even more money at the problem and employ another contractor with more equipment and doubt very much that this is a solution worth looking at as more costs to the bottom line won't improve your results.
I am not sure I agree that Horgan lacks technical hands on abilities as when I listen to what he has to say he comes across as very knowledgeable in pretty much all aspects of mining.
Unfortunately he joined Centamin at least 2 years too late because given the decisions made during his tenure we would have been in better shape than we are currently although in my opinion we are way better placed than we were this time last year.
Whether Horgan is a "good chap" or not I have no idea in fact I hope he is far from it and is a strong ruthless SOB and gets things done, maybe another thing that hasn't been picked up on is there has been a change of General Manager at Sukari and that suggest Horgan can make difficult decisions and has put someone in on the ground floor who understands the nuts and bolts of mining rather than a political appointment.

Cowichan, guys Bristow is the CEO of a very large company the largest gold mining company in the world and I very much doubt he even knows the names of the people involved in the job swaps, let alone organised a "sting" that would be so obvious. Would Barrick be interested in buying Centamin of course they would, is it a priority given the profit share structure I am not sure?
The time in my view to buy into Centamin or Centamin personnel would have been prior to venturing into Egypt to gain a structure and people with knowledge but as I have mentioned previously Barrick have considerable experience globally with personnel that have been there and done it and a tried and tested structure of developing new markets.
It wouldn't surprise me if Barrick take a run at Centamin but I would also look at other majors such as Newmont and Anglogold Ashanti both looking to grow their portfolios and Centamin's properties would fit nicely into their core profile ( I also know of several people who have joined Centamin over the years particularly from the latter company).
Do we know if Bristow visited Sukari when he visited Saudi as my contacts say nothing about such an event ever happening?
In my opinion Bristow will know everything he needs to know about Centamin and will have detailed dossiers on a number of acquisition opportunities. If I was Bristow I would be using my office talking to senior political/civil servant types to be sure of the political risks in the regions and gaining valuable contacts at high political levels rather than a visit to Sukari .
There has also been mention made of phase 4 west wall waste area and the lack of information it is worth listening to the Q&A after the 4th quarter presentation as Horgan explained that they have been mining the area from memory as early as third quarter last year.

Tibbs, prior to the Capital contract Cey did all of their open pit haulage and suggest they are still doing all of their mining haulage both waste and ore, by this I mean the waste contact is outside of the existing and additional to the mining activity hence the low ore numbers. Reading between the lines the ore grades would be lower had they not moved back into phase 4 west wall.
Whilst utilisation of the fleet at the end of the waste contact isn't a decision that will need to be made soon it is possibly something that has already been discussed at the time of contract because the capital investment made by Capital for what is by the sound of it a short term contract is significant and ROI somewhat questionable.
Interesting times.

Prof, Too optimistic maybe but the way I look at it Capital have been on the job for approaching 10 months and they will have already moved a considerable tonnage of waste material, already opening up areas to enable the mine to become more flexible.
So whilst this coming year we won't see all of the fruits the foundations of a far more reliable and consistent cost effective production rate should be the eventual result.

Capital will own them as suggest Centamin are just paying a hire rate of so many dollars per tonne moved, which will be the reason why mention was made to additional costs due to contractor being ahead, so more tonnes moved.

Bobliz35 It is almost impossible to say where Centamin sit when compared with other gold mining companies given that Centamin are going through so much change, so much investment. This means extraordinary costs that won't be typical to other mines. Comparisons will be more realistic when they get back to mining Sukari rather than restructuring Sukari.
There are so many scenarios to look at once the waste contract project finishes as I would suggest the then strip ratio should reduce significantly down to say 5 or 6 to 1 which is half of where it was last year. So straight line costs mean no more dollars per tonne outgoings to waste contractor. More ore to waste reduces costs and increases ounces. This is just the basics as could be increased costs due to longer haul distances but who knows if this is true and where the grades will be. Will there be more influence from underground with higher grades?
One thing that is interesting is at the end of the waste contract there will still be a young fleet of very high quality machines available. Can these be contracted to mining ore at a similar cost per tonne, an interesting scenario as it will certainly be in the best interest of the contractor to use them locally. The cost of decommissioning and transporting out of Egypt would be considerable.
Sorry a long winded answer to your question but very interesting long term opportunities at Sukari and the surrounding areas plus the bonus of resources in West Africa.

Sotolo You are right to be cautious and yes the figures are disappointing with strip ratios through the roof due to an extraordinary waste management and major cut back and restructure of the mine plan to expose ore. Would the waste management have been better handled in the years past most definitely but if they had then targets wouldn't have been hit and you would not have had the opportunity to sell shares at or above £2.
We have choices to make ride the storm or cut and run I personally will ride the storm because what I am hearing from current management makes sense to me and am so glad that we got the new team on board when we did. I hate to think where we would be if the difficult decisions hadn't have been made and they continued ploughing on with head in the ground production line type mentality.

Tibbs I am not surprised that mining companies met with Centamin to talk about developing a business in Egypt. These companies will also have met with local service providers to ascertain ability to support the mines and future increases in demand. Doubt these meetings would have been at the mine, more likely in Alexandria and or Cairo where the majority of the logistics will be centred. Very much doubt that a company like Barrick will learn much by visiting Sukari as they have their own way of opening up and developing a mine and no two mines are the same.
These meetings would be done by the development guys at Barrick and given their experiences around the world they would likely be following a tried and tested check list.
What I am sure will happen in the future will be the setting up of a chamber of mines where the government and all mining companies will be represented and associate members will be contractors and service providers. There will be regular meetings and will cover all sorts of subjects, great way of getting things sorted out quickly and if there was such a chamber when the threat of the court case was raised it would have been nipped in the bud very quickly as all mining houses would be looking over their shoulder.
Cooperation in the future will be very important and benefit all parties.

Cowichan thanks but I haven't heard the rumour other than through your post. I just don't see why Bristow would need to visit Sukari other than to see what can be achieved in Egypt, but Barrick has already invested in Egypt so why the need to divert especially in these uncertain times? Sukari has a strict covid regime so like I say adds considerable time to his schedule. He will have a senior manager/director allocated to Egypt with a team of people and will already have a very thick dossier on all that happens in Egypt with a very detailed executive summary. Having said that am a little surprised that Bristow is attending the Saudi conference so maybe there is an ulterior motive but as I am not one for rumours.
Someone mentioned a fly over by helicopter but again unless things have changed Sukari is in a military zone and you need a pass from the military prior to getting a pass to Sukari even when visiting by vehicle.
You mentioned the stock pile on Linkedin and being able to feed the plant and reallocate the truck fleet to the waste removal rather than go to a contractor. If that had happened a guess is the year end production would have fallen well short of 400,000 ounces and processing costs through the roof because the stockpiled material is very low grade and will be left until close to the end of the mine life to process or blend with higher grade ore but certainly not yet as would dilute what is already lowish grade ore.

Cowichan interesting thought but very much doubt Bristow will divert to Sukari as unless things have changed there is no airstrip at Sukari and it is a time consuming exercise. Not sure what he would achieve by visiting Sukari as he is CEO and not hands on operational.

Tibbs the added frustration is that a one off visit with a guide for the day won't do it you need a small team with individual skills to look at the project as a whole and lay over the mine plan to understand what is achievable and what input is required to discuss with management.
Another frustration is that I have been out of the business for too long .

mikefluk My guess just over 415,000 ounces and yes the guys at the mine will be aware by now what production numbers are and if they sell at or over the $1829 close then great news.

Tibbs the frustration for me is that I don't have the opportunity to walk the mine and talk to the guys on the ground and allocate guys to analyse the mine plan, look at areas of the mine that aren't seen to be important but that give you a true insight to the detailed strength of the operation. As I say a frustration that unfortunately I can't change and have to put up with and like you have to rely on the stuff that we are fed.
Do I have renewed confidence given the rubbish that we have been fed in the past? I am not sure but at the end of the day open pit mining is all about moving material at lowest cost per tonne whether it is ore or waste, and the more ore quite obviously the better.
The increase in machine fleet size with the contractor fleet means they are able to move one hell of a lot of material. Is this the most efficient way of moving material I don't know but would hope so given there will be a known and agreed cost per tonne paid to the contractor?
The proof or otherwise of my pontification will be in the year end results and 2022 projections.

First of all here is hoping for a better New Year for all.
Kees Decker is so right in many of his points relating to Centamin albeit don't agree with his comments relating to Doropo which in my opinion looks to be an excellent low cost long term prospect.
Also not sure of the rationale behind falling behind with waste clearance causing a pit wall failure because as far as I am aware there was no failure and the fissure was actually found in a waste area scheduled to be cleared.
He might well be right that the face/pit wall was unstable due to incorrect mining practices but I haven't seen any information saying it was a result of chasing ounces.
Agreed that the unstable wall highlighted the lack of flexibility of the mine due to chasing ounces as they basically had nowhere else to go to maintain production. As has been said an unstable area is nothing unusual and shouldn't necessitate a profit warning so yes seriously bad mine management. What is worse nobody took ownership of the problems that would inevitably come back to bite us all.
Let us all look forward to a positive year end performance with an exceptional fourth quarter and steady increasing gold price.

Tibbs I don't believe West Africa to be a bad investment as the resource at Doropo and ABC look to be very promising and would suggest relatively low cost operations (providing they don't rush it) with an established mining sector. What is a pain is that Batie has been put into the too difficult basket a decision made by the current management. In my opinion better to bite the bullet and walk away rather than trying to make it fit, because the latter could end up being an expensive decision.

Tibbs Sukari original mine plan was designed to achieve 500,000 ounces per annum and this was achieved so as far as I could see job done. Then it all went wrong basically seriously poor marketing. Promising more than achievable without taking shortcuts and doing what has now led to getting stuck in the corner with no way out other than to go back to the start and open up other areas. I liken it to cleaning the floor and starting at the door rather than the far wall. The problem now is that they have a major expense having to employ a contractor to break down the walls so that they can commence work again. The issue is that the contractor costs go straight to the bottom line as waste generates no revenue. What this will do if it hasn't already is free up the Centamin fleet to concentrate on ore and flexibility will then allow them to mine several faces maybe of different grades and control grades rather than all or nothing, which has been the case over the last few years. So I am looking at the future as there is nothing that can be done about the past other than moan.

Tibbs I would also have loved more sooner but an expensive major contract for waste removal tells me that the problems were and are still very large.

I have read a few of the postings today and don't get the negativity as I am relieved that Centamin at long last know what their resources have to offer and reserves are more realistic and conservative with production far more achievable. The relief for me is that if management didn't get hold of the operation we would be looking at less than 400,000 ounces per annum and losses rather than profits. AISC yes way too high next year but I for one have no idea how to reduce these costs so struggle to criticize, if they are to reach the flexibility that is required to mine multiple faces both above and below ground. I am disappointed however that they didn't address a question that I asked about Batie.
Not sure how they can fast track Doropo any more than they are because from the figures the proven reserves aren't sufficient to lay down a detailed mine plan and present a bankable document.
Moving to borrowing I feel comfortable with when growing the company and if successful will show confidence of the financial community and strengthen their credit rating. To be honest there aren't many if any growth organisations that I know that operate without some level of borrowing. Good luck to all of us because no doubt that Sukari is a first class resource and now in my opinion we have a team that has the guts to bite the bullet and suffer the costs of getting the mine back on track.

Washing a solar panel? They have a desalination plant that has good enough quality water to wash panels.

Rebess there are a number of things that gave me encouragement. Yes additional opportunities in the long term such as the new exploration opportunities in Egypt, Medium term resource in West Africa and short to medium term ore that is being exposed at Sukari by the waste blitz. I am impressed that even with a strip ratio up at 9 and a higher cost per tonne they are still bringing in a positive result and what I am feeling good about is what looks to be the development of a structured and balanced base to work from. As I see it short term pain for long term gains.
What does worry me is the possibility of any negative response surrounding Batie.