Rebess there are a number of things that gave me encouragement. Yes additional opportunities in the long term such as the new exploration opportunities in Egypt, Medium term resource in West Africa and short to medium term ore that is being exposed at Sukari by the waste blitz. I am impressed that even with a strip ratio up at 9 and a higher cost per tonne they are still bringing in a positive result and what I am feeling good about is what looks to be the development of a structured and balanced base to work from. As I see it short term pain for long term gains.
What does worry me is the possibility of any negative response surrounding Batie.
Rebess I am somewhat fascinated by exploring for additional resources in the new exploration areas to supplement Sukari or extend the life of the current resource investment. I am not sure how this works when the terms of agreement of the new resource investments are different to the current Sukari agreement. I am sure this will have been closely investigated and incorporated into the new agreements that fully benefits Centamin otherwise it can be an admin nightmare complying with different legislation.
Tibbs agree with Kees and doff my cap to Horgan as if his recent trip is his first in a long time the management by wire has in my opinion been very successful, in what looks to be getting the mine on track.
I must also congratulate the boots on the ground as they sound as though they are doing an exceptional job, there aren't many companies around the world that haven't been effected by the pandemic in some way.
If the employment of Capitol costs on average $2 per tonne moved for the duration of the contract it is a worthwhile necessary evil. To get back into the Phase 4 workings, West wall and bolster grades is a bonus and a necessary bonus to actually turn a profit this last quarter.
All in all an acceptable set of numbers and impressive material moved only wish it was ore rather than a very heavy bias towards waste which is as I say a necessary evil but in the long term with careful management should come out the other side with a far better structured resource.
Looking forward to 1st December and think Horgan is ready to "hit it out of the park".
Cowichan thanks and yes they do have 17.5 million tonnes of stockpiled ore at 0.47 grams per tonne (low grade) to blend with the higher grade ore.
I can't find what the cut off grade is for the plant but am pretty sure it will be somewhat higher than 0.5 grams a tonne.
So back to the question could the existing mining fleet cope with both the strip and still maintained gold production then in my opinion no it wouldn't have been possible and it was/is still the right decision to employ a construction contractor to blitz the waste to expose the ore hopefully in multiple areas.
Will Capital get a mining contract at a later date or will Cey cross hire some or all of the fleet for other projects at Sukari in Egypt who knows but after listening to our CEO he likes flexible options?
Let's wait until Cowichan advises where he accessed the numbers so that we can understand ROM and stockpiles.
It is important to understand that in gold mining terms anything less than 0.5 grams per tonne is low grade. Without trolling through Centamin's presentations I don't know the cut off feed grade through the plant.
Normally low grade ore would either be stockpiled ready to blend with higher grade ores or placed on a leach pad that is treated with a weak cyanide solution that attacks the ore and over time leaches the gold.
Basically processing low grade ore below cut off grade through the plant isn't cost effective the processing cost plus cost of sale will likely provide a loss rather than a profit.
Cowichan grateful if you can tell me where you accessed your figures as not sure I interpret ROM as stockpiles.
ROM stockpiles agree as this is material used for blending to get best rate of return through process plant. My question would be if they are carrying over 18 months of stock is why hasn't the plant already had an expansion to cope with such demand or why isn't it sitting on a leach pad?
Well there seems to be quite some conspiracy theories going on regarding Centamin and Capital.
I can't find any mention on the Capital web site of any Centamin board members past or present on the board of Capital, grateful if someone knows better.
Maybe if we could drill down "excuse the pun" we might find that sort of relationship in the early days of the drilling contract agreements when maybe Capital had to register an Egyptian company for operational purposes and to benefit from the terms and conditions of the mine in relationship to the terms applicable to developing the mine such as tax benefits on capital expenditure and duty free privileges etc. I don't have any proof of this but having worked on similar problems in developing countries this is possible and may be necessary.
My question is back to candidinvestor's suggestion that Cey buy Capital and I still say why spend over $200 million on a company that is supplying a service on a cost per tonne/metre drilled basis without having to spend millions on equipment and just as important maintaining the equipment.
An important fundamental is what does Cey want that is core to their business that Capital can offer?
If Batie is non core because the ore structure is outside of their brief I would suggest owning what is primarily a drilling company is way down the pecking list.
Horses for courses Capital are a very good drilling company and this is borne out by being employed by other mining companies and in particular Barrick (three mines) and Anglogold Ashanti (Geita) who's relationship goes back way before Sukari .I mention Barrick and Anglogold Ashanti because I was actively involved with Barrick and Geita when they were developing their Tanzanian mines and used to talk after hours with the drillers (among them Capital guys) at the then only bar at the Tilapia Hotel Mwanza. They have considerable experience great people working for them so I can understand how relationships are built.
Capital if memory serves me were introduced to Sukari then known as Pharaoh Gold by people who were recruited from the Tanzanian Mining scene in particular from Geita and North Mara, several of these guys were actually involved at the time 2005/6 that my team and I were discussing the fleet of mining machines best suited to the then mine plan.
Interestingly at that time the mine plan in particular the in depth detail of the resource was pretty much the best that I had seen. I don't think anyone can dispute that the first 3/4 years of Sukari was pretty damn good and when I retired in 2008 I was impressed with the organisation and the people involved, so much so I invested.
Like a lot of people and businesses they get over ambitious over promoted and need to be reigned in and taken back to basics and I think we are at that stage which is painful but necessary.
Would buying another company help at this time when the new management are getting to grips with what they already have not sure?
candidinvestor I look forward to part 2 of your post. Another interesting organisation in the Perenti Group over and above Ausdrill, AMS is Barminco and they are the underground contractor at Sukari.
I don't think it was said that Capital don't operate in West Africa because they are very active in West Africa and other countries in Africa but they don't operate as a mining contractor and don't as far as I am aware own a fleet of mining machines.
For a mining company to rely on a contractor to deliver in accordance with the mine plan there needs to be a great deal of trust which can only come with a strongly competitive bid underpinned by a track record.
Capital could well gain the track record from the project at Sukari albeit not currently a contract mining project.
There are however a number of mining contractors already well established in West Africa one being AMS.
I dealt with AMS, Ausdrill, WAMS (West African Mining Services), personnel originally employed by Henry Walker and Eltin before they merged and then merged with AMS. I will actually sing their praises BUT as I say they are only one contract mining company operating in West Africa and there are several that I would also sing their praise.
Not knocking Capital in anyway because Perenti started in exactly the same way with Ausdrill a drilling company in fact Ausdrill started with a Drill salesman who decided to buy a rig and go it alone in Kalgoorlie.
When he retired in 2018 he sold his shares and same year they had a pit wall collapse at the super pit in Kalgoorlie and Perenti hasn't recovered from the SP and balance sheet hit.
bleary-eyed sorry not what I heard the west wall was rightly closed at the time because as he said there was movement with 2/3 benches of waste above the higher grade ore.
As he said this isn't normally a major issue as it is a common occurrence when mining and normally easily sorted out.
I would suggest having to issue a guidance notice would have been made through gritted teeth when he understood such a normal circumstance had such a major impact on production because they had no alternative areas that could be worked in the short term.
As for risk taking in mining not for me as risks in mining are dangerous and if they hadn't shut down the west wall the consequences could have been far worse.
What is unusual is bringing in a contractor for what I would call a "muck shifting" exercise to move a massive amount of waste and this was a major costly gutsy decision and made very quickly and a decision that hurts the SP in the short term but I would suggest will put Sukari back on track to hitting targets.
Boring is good but something a little better than boring is where we need to be to gain confidence and SP improvement. There was a lot of very good stuff in the presentation and I particularly like the word flexibility coupled to no need for guidance.
MrBond yes AMS are definitely one and being part of the Ausdrill organisation they will certainly give most contract miners a run for their money.
Also although way after my time in West Africa I believe they had the contract at Toro so well known to Martin Horgan and his team.
Tibbs something we must also appreciate is that the current contract that Capital has at Sukari is just moving waste and this is way off being a contract miner and there are far more experienced contract miners currently operating in West Africa.
Sorry why would a mining company buy a contract mining company, just stay as an owner miner. Capital doesn't have a fleet of mining equipment in West Africa so there would still need to be a major capital investment. Also if they spend 210 on Capital they will still need funds to spend on the processing plant etc at Doropo and ABC.
Won't take long to spend the 300 million when they start developing new mines and they will be looking for reliable strong contact miners, drilling contractors and much much more.
In West Africa there are many well established Mining Contractors which is good because Capital will need to be keen with their pricing as it is a cut throat business and would be a fascinating head to head with Ausdrill/AMS as there will be the need for a total contract inclusive of drill rigs.
Somnamna I think you are among the majority as the presentation was technical for the layman investor hence the total lack of interest by the majority of investors and the SP doing absolutely nothing.
It was a presentation meant for those who understand the difference between working to focus on the grades without taking account of the implications governed by the geology, in simple terms understanding if you move a brick from a wall you can see through but if it collapses not only can you no longer see through you now have considerably more bricks to move if you aren't trapped underneath.
I did say simple terms but past experiences at Sukari tells me the new management are putting in grown up professional strategies as against amateurs playing at big business.
It answers some questions that were nagging at and annoying me.
As far as the SP is concerned I can only see an improvement when management announce improved ounces and higher profits that the majority of investors actually understand.
Tibbs Sukari is a world class resource given proven reserves.
This doesn't mean it is a world class operation although to date if you average out the number of ounces over the life of mine they are pretty close to what was predicted when I bought in.
Problem is to get to these numbers there have been short cuts to keep investors happy and these have come home to roost but there again I remember having to defend cut backs, when concentrating on waste removal over some periods. Such again necessary evils and the criticism that could have been levied is that management were naïvely over estimating production to keep investors happy.
Unfortunately it appears they didn't continue with the cut backs on a regular basis to maybe again naively keep the investors happy.
One excellent result is that there was no slide so someone was on the ball and they live to fight another day and the higher grade ore is still an asset it hasn't gone anywhere and not sitting at the bottom of a slip.
As I say lets hope we get some good news over the coming weeks.
Tibbs drilling holes and making presentations to investors is what a mining company does.
The latter is considerably cheaper than advertising in the media.
As for drilling there is considerable science a lot of gut feel and a hell of a lot of luck involved.
Yes Centamin have had 10 years plus in West Africa trying to find a viable resource and it isn't just about finding a resource it has to be an emphasis on the viable cost effective project.
Centamin knew when taking on Ampella's properties that they had some proven sulphides in BF and a considerable number of square miles of additional ground to look at and yes the need for a whole lot of holes to drill and this is a necessary evil, you don't just say thanks and use it as a nature reserve you have to work it to ascertain whether you have additional reserves and OK BF and Batie didn't work out BUT we should all be tipping our hat because it looks as though they have viable resources in Ivory Coast and bonus is not land locked somewhat safer and yes they still need to drill more holes as I say if we want to invest in a mining company they need to spend money on exploration and it doesn't come cheap.
Don't get me wrong I am not making excuses for many short comings over the last 5 years but this isn't about exploration it is about how they buried their head to Sukari issues all of which should have been obvious if you are working the mine.
I don't get why they being the board need to concentrate on just Egypt WHY? they are the board they aren't the grafters on the ground who are doing the work.
The board member(s) will be making a visit possibly in current times only virtually and looking at management summaries of reports provided by their teams and outside professional consultants and then writing up policy and relying on their project managers to bring in the results.
Having got this far in WA it is time to push on to opening another mine or hopefully two and if they bring in Doropo from a virgin plot to a productive mine in the next 18 months it will have been done in very good time.
Everything crossed for some good news over the coming weeks and if it is good news the market understands it is good news.