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Tibbs, Cowichan No I don't think the questions have been fully answered not sure that it is an excuse but definitely think it is an issue that Horgan has inherited too late for a straight forward solution and certainly something he could do without.
Having been in country during and after a coup I do understand the frustrations so am prepared to give him and the team the benefit of the doubt. No way am I saying what has happened and is currently going on is acceptable but reckon Horgan in particular has a considerable number of other issues and projects that can bring about more beneficial contributions.
Batie West didn't work out BUT it was only part of the overall package and if Doropo and ABC prove to be profitable mines then 2 out of 3 is a good return in mining terms.
If Cey can partner with the likes of a major or a company experienced with refractory ore then excellent but I don't think the ore body is necessarily the issue in attracting a partner but feel it is more likely the political risk.
So in Cey's favour is that BF government won't necessarily want to take the concession back as they will have the same problem, without the knowledge and Cey contacts, maybe with Centamin prepared to share the risk with a partner.
In my opinion it would be of no advantage for the BF government who has far more issues to worry about than taking back the concession, and will I believe rely on Centamin to encourage a suitably qualified organisation to take the ore body to the next levels.
So yes there definitely needs to be better communication and it shouldn't be the likes of us assuming what the issues are because I/we have no influence over the thoughts of investors.
OK so Q1 down as far as ounces concerned even on the 45% by mid year so quite some work to do in Q2 to give the resemblance of getting on track for year end guidance.
So even worse than I envisaged can I find any good news other than the jam tomorrow presentation?
Well yes I am very impressed with the tonnes of ore moved. Not so impressed with the strip ratio as this is where the cost per ounce is currently crucifying us.
So question will be how long or how many ounces need to be extracted before we start seeing a break even number ?
I am sure this is uppermost in the mind of the operational team. Which leads me on to another piece of good news and that is that we now have a General Manager at Sukari who is a real hands on General Manager not a political appointee or mouth piece of the CEO.
Martin Horgan is another piece of good news as he definitely has his fingers on the pulse and understands what is happening in detail pretty much on a day by day basis.
Bad news for shareholders is that SP crashes yet again and this was definitely something I was expecting but the traders will love this certainty.
Another three months of wait and see.
Very disappointed with the Q&A session especially from the major investment organisations, does this mean that everything was as expected or do they not understand the need for information?
BC great to hear from you and thanks for your current knowledge I am sure technology has moved on so much it is a good thing that the dinosaur called Dasut retired. I trust life is treating you well down under and best to you and your family. Stay safe.
Tibbs appreciate the developments in electrics have moved on but can't get my head around a 300 tonne shovel when a 26 tonne needs a battery pack weighing 3.4 tonnes. This means the 300 tonne unit battery pack will be approaching 40 tonnes. Charging time would be days.
What I think Sany have is the age old hybrid diesel electric but unfortunately difficult to find a spec sheet of the machine so can't confirm either way.
Mines dictate machines providing maximum production and nothing unusual for a mine to run 3 x 8 hour shift and efficiencies along the same lines as pit stops at a grand prix, albeit longer change overs because they would normally do fuel and service top ups and operator walk round, similar to a pilot does his checks before take off. There are extremes as have seen a mine where they have drive too gantry systems and the operator walks off and new guy walks on and doesn't have to climb the steps.
Many other extras such quick fill diesel tanks and lube clusters.
So waiting over night for a machine to be charged won't work so as have said we need considerably more information to understand how productive and therefore cost effective the equipment really is. Also how many additional machines would be required to meet production plans.
Fascinating but knowing what I know about mining equipment I would need to look at the pros and cons of introducing the technology into Egypt. I know the likes of Caterpillar have trial fleets with major mining companies around the world to ensure product reliability, performance and costs work for their customers.
It must be the way to go but not sure if Centamin are ready for the leap into what could be the unknown but 18 months is quite a long time and considerable advances and knowledge will be gained during that time.
It is interesting how automation is linked to electric drive equipment, I remember in 1980 seeing automated equipment running in a proving area and 40 plus years on we only see a limited number of machines working in the Industry.
Will Health and Safety acts around the world move with the times to allow machines to run around mines without drivers/operators? Yes I am sure one day it will happen is Centamin ready to introduce this technology I am not sure but certainly wouldn't rule it out.
I would however like to see numbers particularly around performance and reliability based on actual mine site conditions and applications but I have been out of the market for quite a while so maybe need to chat with people who have first hand experience.
There is an awful lot more to cost effective mining equipment than an electric motor turning the wheels as also need to provide power to hydraulics to lift the tools to do the work. Larger the machine and the heavier the work brings in additional dynamics.
I would be interested in hearing from anyone on this forum who has first hand experience of truly battery powered mining equipment Mr BC if you are still reading the contributions.
Sorry Tibbs got called to sort something out I will continue . I agree completely about the underground being not treated as seriously as the open pit back then but it was the major cut back not the LHDR that caused the shortage of ounces and the more I think about it the more it makes sense that they were following the grade and jumped on the issue on hand at the time rather than the larger picture. Namely blame the contractor and the LHDR not that we have backed ourselves into a corner and need to clear some waste to mine some ore.
I remember reading that the blame was Capital they couldn't even get the contractor right and I suppose because it was a rig they immediately thought it was something to do with a drilling contract.
Too much fake news back in history and as I say can't do anything about history have to focus on the here and now and hopefully this will shape the future for all of us.
halfpenny I hope I am wrong about the first quarter numbers that we will shortly be receiving but it will take a very strong wind and a tap into a bonanza grade to show a profit, unfortunately the strip ratio waste to ore and to ounces don't compute.
Pardey wasn't walking about on site he was sitting in Jersey and because of a shortage of any underground mining experience in Egypt is the reason why the contract was contracted out in the first place.
Hopefully the situation has changed and there is now plenty of inhouse expertise otherwise its here we go again the blind leading the blind.
As halfpenny says be confident and retain the faith and the new management and the team at the face.
Tibbs LHDR was seriously bad luck and only glad that it wasn't one of the large loaders in the open pit because that was where the real work was going on. I don't get and never did get why the LHDR was the cause of the crisis at the time. Unfortunately all mechanical things break and I have said so many times you can't have two of everything on site. It doesn't make financial sense.
halfpenny agreed that the second half of the year should be good but in the meantime the numbers I don't think are going to help maintain the SP and all I was saying is that the sellers could get the opportunity to jump back in.
halfpenny the year end report and the retail presentation tells us that production levels for first half year will be 45% of annual target with second half 55%. The impact of the cost of the waste removal contract plus other fixed costs will therefore be more expensive in comparative terms.
Sotolo yes I do see a rosy future but I will add caveats that there are numerous risks or impacts that can turn my optimism and these are all dependant on management taking the right decisions.
IMO it is imperative that additional mines come on stream over the next 18 months, coupled with ending the necessary but expensive muck shifting contract ( wouldn't it be excellent if they find something interesting in close proximity that could allow utilising the already available in country fleet of equipment, sorry getting a bit too optimistic). The move to underground owner mining has to be a success quickly and I mean over the coming few months so not throwing a curve ball that could set us back.
Like you I like the idea of introducing solar power and this will help considerably in powering static plant and mine site facilities.
We also need to see something of a return when offloading Batie West and timing is crucial.
My reason for optimism is Horgan's team but they are still in the talk the talk stage and we are still a way off the achievement bonus level.
Tibbs I think we need to wait to see if Cleopatra is part of the major waste cut back to be incorporated into the larger pit and as I read it the bonanza grades are also if not mainly open pit related.
You call them pull backs I call them unplanned necessary realignment strategies but of all of the decisions made in recent months the one that worries me is moving to owner mining the underground resources. I don't like taking on a used fleet of equipment and this "don't like" can be multiplied 4 times for underground machines that have thousands of hours on the clock.
Time will tell and as I have said previously I can't allow myself to dwell on what has happened in the past and I am sure there are many share holders who benefitted when the SP broke the £2 mark. I for one missed out as my sell instruction was a few pence higher than the peak.
Underground contribution is relatively small at the moment so they have time to grow into the job but on the other hand this change is being used as the reason why the first half will be down on ounces??
halfpenny as someone who is holding I hope you are right but I think we need to hold our breath as can't see that there will be much if any good news over the coming few weeks as if production is down which is predicted you can guarantee costs will be high and we will be seeing a financial loss. Will gold price help to offset the not so good news I doubt it but at the same time I am hoping the impact on the SP will be marginal and short lived.
We all know that production will be down and we are looking at a slow first half and stronger second half but this doesn't normally prevent a fall.
So the sellers may well be in with a good chance of the 80's.
Tibbs I wasn't actually querying the figures I just wanted to know where to find the numbers and Cowichan has explained so now all understood. Is $100 million a squandering of funds? At the moment I am not sure as the company I would think still owns the equipment purchased to do the work to ascertain that Batie indeed maybe Burkina is non core.
Without doing the work and therefore buying the machines they wouldn't have found out that the ore body or bodies in Burkina were marginal or likely to be unviable.
If they had employed consultants/contractors to do the work they wouldn't have spent money on equipment but then again they have equipment to use south of the border in Ivory Coast and didn't waste money using contractors.
Sort of a catch 22 and is $100 million too much money to get 2 new resources to the feasibility stage and prevent throwing money away in Burkina?
Will they get a good price for Batie I wish I knew and they would answer our questions?
Tibbs I wouldn't say don't invest in Nigeria because done right Nigeria is a very large and interesting market and was actually the company I worked for largest market for many years. Our company having been established over 70 years ago "knows how it works" so whilst extremely challenging can also be very rewarding if managed properly.
Unfortunately I think Centamin would as a new investor struggle to cope with such challenges whereas Ghana and Ivory Coast are better structured and investment follows quite clear procedures similar now in Egypt since the new investment structure.
Experience is crucial when venturing into developing counties and in Ghana and Ivory Coast there are people and organisations who understand the procedures, have worked in the structures and know how to reduce risks and make things happen.
Just a quick note if you go onto the Centamin web site and look at Batie West it clearly states that the exploitation license expired last November so they aren't hiding the fact but unfortunately not answering questions on the impact of the value of the resource, or indeed whether they still have ownership of the resource.
Contrary to what I hear from other people who contribute to this chat I don't see any issue with developing a couple of mines in West Africa. I would prefer they were in Ghana but Ivory Coast would be my second choice over BF and Mali for example.
I like the fact that Ivory Coast isn't land locked and mining companies, contractors and service organisations are experienced in "how it works".
If we were talking Nigeria then I would be one of the contributors saying No to a West African venture but thankfully this isn't the case.
I haven't made a film in either West Africa or Egypt like Sotolo but I have lived and travelled both markets and would be happy to see Centamin develop Doropo and ABC. I also see no problem Centamin funding these projects using Banks, Export Credit Insurance organisations etc like most other companies looking at growth to develop these resources as this will strengthen their credit rating and hopefully their SP.
Tibbs the reason I asked about the expenditure of $100 million is that I understand that there has been a considerable amount of money spent in West Africa but I think it was quite early on that the geologists and their mining consultants determined that Batie West in particular was a complicated ore body. Whilst the mining of refractory ore isn't unusual it does involve complicated processing albeit not unusual. There is an extra risk and if Lycopodium saw it to be complicated and marginal then best out and concentrate on other resources in the initial portfolio namely Doropo where the ore bodies seem on the face of it to be far less risky.