Way overvalued now3 Jan 2020 10:42
Agreed with londoner7's post on 3 December 2019 which i have copied below. This SP is for the 'New' Construction business ONLY and the below post is a very good analysis - the estimated share price should be around 100p (which is the default price this morning) and anything above is at your own risk."Hi Boschybear, I've worked out a valuation and was about to post it here when I saw your post. I too have BVS share currently 1200p valued at 1115p for GFRD holders. But I don't think you include the additional dilution due to outstanding share options. Here's my post:As a shareholder I’ve been involved in many bids over the years but this has been one of the hardest to value. The difficulty is the valuation attached to the construction business remaining in GFRD.I’ve tried to break it down based on closing prices 3/12/19 (BVS 1,200p and GFRD 720p). These are my best endeavors so DYOR.I’ve noticed that there are two adjustments from the original bid presentation which negatively impact GFRD shareholders. The most significant is that the fixed number of BVS consideration shares are diluted by the closure of LLP share options, which increases the number of qualifying GFRD shares. The impact is approx. 2% reducing the allocation of BVS shares to 0.56362 per GFRD share. A recent BVS placing increases the capital repayment to £66m, which added to the final dividend equates to a deduction of 85.5p from the current BVS share, i.e. not due to GFRD consideration shares. Fortunately, these activities are netted off by 2nd Jan 2020 so there’s equalization of entitlement from the start of dealings in the new shares 3rd Jan.Crunching the numbers I come to a current valuation of the new construction business at £104m, and a share price of 92p.The prospectus has an adjusted balance sheet (30th June 2019) for the construction business with the debt and cash adjustments showing:Net asset value £237m.Tangible net asset value £151mTherefore, a £104m current valuation represents a 31% discount to tangible net asset value.I’m not attempting to forecast the H1 P&L construction numbers due in Feb 2020. Way beyond my pay grade."londoner7 [ posted on 3 December 2019]