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@freshmatt during half-year results Alan Aubrey (CEO) responded to a similar question with something like - ‘our business model remains unchanged (to evolve great ideas to commercialisation) however for Oxford nanopore we aim to realise maximum value for investors’. I paraphrase, but I took this to indicate they will exit gradually to maximise their realisation. They exited too early with Ceres so hope they learned a hard lesson there. Aubrey and IP group team have been involved with ONT since 2005 and sit on the board. They know the potential upside here so I’d be quite surprised if they sold more than a few % of their stake in 2021….
kewjosh, this is your first post on IP group! Expect you are a margin/swing trader - good luck to you. Remember though, that there are also 'clever' people who have followed the genomics sector for >10yrs, and they know that yesterday/today is still the beginning of this story and the value that will be created here. I have a sub 80p average and I will not be selling a single share at these prices. Different strategies. Good luck to all
@argadargada is spot on. People taking profit because they think nanopore IPO is now priced in - it's not! As previously stated likely IPO will likely be in £4-7bn range and nanopore market cap could quickly ramp once listed as retail investors (including me) get in, so we can expect a VERY healthy IP group realisation down the line. Swing traders, do take your marginal profits, but know you'll miss out in the short term (next few weeks)
Everything you need to know here. IPO microsite
https://nanoporetech.com/about-us/investors/documents
and you don't have to take my word for it re. the valuation - see recent iii article
https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/british-biotech-star-nearing-ps39-billion-ipo-ii521274
@moorhey, sorry but your maths is incorrect. If ONT IPOs at £2.5bn, then IP group NAV gain (vs mid-year results) is £3.5m since NAV already values ONT stake at £359m. However, ONT valuation for IPO is highly likely to exceed £2.5bn - note in the Reuters announcement that they will build on the May valuation. I'd be very surprised (as explained in previous posts) if IPO was for less than £3bn and more likely in £4-7bn range, which would translate to hard NAV of £1.66bn-£2bn or £1.5-£2 per share. We may also see ONT shareprice/market cap gain rapidly after listing as retail investors take positions, which would translate to further NAV gain for IP group. We shall see soon enough.......
@moorhey - it's a pleasure. I have researched & invested in genomics and sequencing space for quite some time (since circa 2007) so glad my insight is proving useful to others. And it's nice to call it right every now and then! Back in 2007 I invested in Illumina, I exited way too early. Since, I've better researched the addressable markets for next gen sequencing, long read sequencing, and diagnostic sequencing, and I won't make the same mistake twice with ONT or PACB (which I'm also invested in since 2012)
Prospects for ONT are incredible, their IPO really is just the beginning IMO. I'll be accumulating ONT stock for the next few years, as well as holding onto my core IP group holding as I think a very solid long term investment due to the diversity in their portfolio and strong financials. Good luck to all here over coming weeks
agree with DD77, valuation for IPO will be >>$3.4bn. More like £5-7bn (circa $8bn). That's based on their sales and CAGR, as well as increased global market penetration compared to main benchmark, pacific bioscience, which is currently valued at $6.3bn.
For what it’s worth, my prediction is they’ll list in Sept or Oct, with valuation supported by strong H1 and bullish genomics sector (CRISPR/Covid effect etc). Not the end of the world if it’s 2022, but I’d be surprised. I think retail investors are underestimating the HUGE interest in ONT from investment institutions across the globe
DD77 - ONT have acknowledged they don’t expect revenue from lampore beyond early 2021, but likely sustained revenue from SarsCov2 genomic surveillance. I noted that indicative growth of overall LR sequencing revenues in H1 2021 are >80%, which is great and a sign of CAGR that can be achieved over coming years! No reason why IPO shouldn’t go ahead as planned, changes to board and exec team point in this direction, what is your basis to doubt it? At IPO, I think valuation of £4bn is conservative (realistically more like £5-7bn. Exciting few weeks ahead…
Oxford Nanopore Technologies 2020 Revenues More Than Double
Aug 16, 2021 | staff reporter
Remove from my reading list
NEW YORK – Oxford Nanopore Technologies reported earlier this month that its 2020 revenues grew 119 percent, driven by growth in its core tools market as well as COVID-19 testing revenue. The company also said that so far in 2021, revenue growth in its core business has been strong.
In a filing with Companies House, a UK government agency, Oxford Nanopore reported 2020 revenues of £113.9 million ($157.6 million), up from £52.1 million in 2019. Life science research tools revenues were £65.5 million, up 26 percent, while COVID-19 testing, which did not exist in 2019, brought in revenues of £48.3 million.
Product revenues were £106.1 million, while service revenues were £4.9 million, and revenues from lease income were £2.9 million. Revenues from the UK were £52.9 million; from the US, £16.4 million; Europe, £18.9 million; China, £7.7 million; Japan, £4.2 million; and the rest of the world, £13.8 million.
The firm reported a net loss of £61.2 million, or £0.002 per share, compared to a net loss of £72.2 million, or £0.0025 per share, in 2019. The loss from exchange differences on translation of foreign operations was £429,000, compared to £133,000 the year before.
Oxford Nanopore's R&D spending grew 20 percent to £48.6 million from £40.5 million in 2019, while SG&A expenses were £71.4 million, up 8 percent from £66.1 million a year ago.
"The year brought operational challenges for Oxford Nanopore due to COVID-19, but the business responded strongly," the firm wrote.
The company raised £161.3 million in 2020, compared to £200,000 the year before, including a private placement of shares from December 2019 and £132.8 million raised via private placements in May and September 2020. Oxford Nanopore said it used the funds to grow its commercial team, support R&D, and scale up biologics manufacturing capabilities.
The firm ended the year with 527 employees — 235 in R&D, 186 in SG&A, and 106 in production — and £80.9 million in cash and cash equivalents.
The firm did not provide specific 2021 guidance but said that the "general level of activity in 2021 is expected to increase, compared to 2020." Revenue growth in its core business "has been strong and accelerating in the first six months of 2021, compared to the same period in 2020, with indicative growth of greater than 80 percent," the firm said.
Oxford Nanopore also said that it raised another £202 million from private placements in April of this year (in May, one of the firm's early investors had said Oxford Nanopore had raised £195 million). In March, the firm announced plans to go public in the second half of the year; however, in the filing it said that "the timing of the IPO is not under the control of the company, due to market condition."
In April, the UK Department of Health and Social Care terminated a contract for LamPore SARS-CoV-2 testing k