Member Info for danrh

Harrycash and other shorters are circling. My advice, be careful. Fundamentals here are very strong- 35m buybacks likely to kick in, cash rich and shareprice now >30% below hardNAV. There must be weaker stocks you can find to short!

Well, looks like it’s time for new CEO and exec team to I) start the share buy back and 2) get some positive news out (impact of ONT valuation to hard NAV) to stem the outflow. Interesting to watch how it will play over coming days. Let’s hope they have a plan to manage the change well!

I’ve recalculated IP group hard NAV based on today’s ONT shareprice/mcap. It’s around £1650m/155pps. Be careful not to throw aware your shares during this period!

Some v large buys going through. Some retail investors good screwed this morning. Brutal

Huge overreaction. From recent press releases Greg Smith already appears to be leading and better a driven CEO than someone with one foot in retirement after ONT payout/success. Great day to buy and lucky timing for cestbon- well done. I’ve added a few more thousand at under 127 - amazing!

I'm aiming to get make first investment at sub 500pps. Think shareprice will get there in short term as nothing currently to support valuation above £4bn and will likely get shorted off the 'IPO spike'. My long term target (5-10yrs) is >£100bn market cap to give you an idea of where I think this company could go based on the size of the markets they are aiming to address (some of which don't even exist yet!).

I love ONT and have followed forever (since 2005). I'm investing here long term since very bullish on genomics space, but like everyone else I don't want to be part of IPO spike so I'm going to buy steadily between now and end of year. Good luck to all

@cestbon IP group shareprice should never see those levels again (121-127p). If it does I'll be buying a truck load!

One last point in case anyone's forgotten - IP group now have £35m allocated to buying back the Group's shares when shareprice is at discount to NAV (i.e. now!)

"The Board is allocating £15m of this realisation [partial sale of Oxford nanopore holding] towards buybacks of its own shares. Including the £20m announced earlier this year, none of which has been utilised to date, a total of £35m is now reserved for buybacks. The buyback programme remains subject to various factors including our shareholder authorities to only buy back shares at a discount to Hard NAV per share"

P.S. anyone selling IP group shares at 135pps is crackers in my humble opinion. My money is where my mouth is, I for one am buying IP group this morning

@millikino I'm guessing IP group shareprice affected by institutional investors flipping some funds from IP group to nanopore for direct investment. However, flipping from IP group to ONT makes no sense for us retail investors at present due to the obvious disparity between ONT valuation (c £4.95bn based on current shareprice of 620pps!) and IP groups shareprice based on hard NAV which still includes 10.3% of ONT currently valued at £510m!

Yes agree v good plan. Cash realisation, share buy back and retain >10% stake in nanopore. IP group is set up perfectly for growth

See below from Reuters. So ONT will list at 425 per share. Book build highly competitive and successful. Think we can see ONT market cap of >£4bn in first week of trading. All good for IP group NAV as well as no doubt some cash realisation as part of IPO. Plenty of upside from here

Reuters - Britain's Oxford Nanopore IPO-ONT.L has priced its London market debut at 425 pence per share, a bookrunner said on Tuesday, valuing the company at around 3.6 billion pounds ($4.92 billion) including its use of a greenshoe option. Last week, bookrunners had set an indicative price range of 375 to 450 pence per share on the offering, which is now expected to close one day earlier on Sept. 29.

From Bloomberg "The [oxford nanopore] shares will be marketed at 375 pence to 450 pence each through Sept. 30, and start trading the next day". I would be very surprised if bookbuild does not mean listing is at 450 pence = £3.8bn valuation. For IP group £3.8bn nanopore valuation = £192m NAV gain to £1.63bn NAV/153pps. And that's BEFORE any trading of nanopore starts on 1st Oct. Prospects are very nice here!

moorhey: that's why I never use stop losses. Will be interesting to see what the algos do when nanopore floats for £4bn+ week after next!

Incredible that people sold in the dip yesterday! So easy for the large buys at 134-5pps to be filled. None of the upside from oxford nanopore IPO is baked into the shareprice yet (we were back at half-yearly results NAV/shareprice). We are only two weeks away from the listing! I'll sound condescending here (apologies), but I can only assume that many retail investors can't do the right maths to calculate IP group NAV following oxford nanopore IPO. IP group NAV will take a big step up, and IP group will be in enviable position of a having a rich portfolio and cash rich balance sheet....and people sell, it's quite baffling for me.

and by the way Oracle is second-largest software company in the world! and strong Healthcare business to accelerate Oxford Nanopore's entry into clinical diagnostics/genomics market, which as you may know is 10s of billions future TAM.

…BIG news and glad to see valuation will be based on book built- ie to make it a competitive process between different institutional investors!

Good shout - I topped up this morning too. Current shareprice has negligible NAV gain for IP group vs half-yearly results (i.e. only values ONT at circa £2.5bn). I think we can all agree £2.5bn is a woefully low valuation for ONT IPO. NAV and shareprice only going one direction from here (UP!) once ONT valuation for IPO is confirmed/communicated.

@smartalec1, shareprice drop IMO is driven by i) profit taking late last week, particularly margin traders ii) shorting of the stock and iii) 'treeshake' to lose the opportunistic retail investors and to fill large buy orders around 140pps! ii) and iii) are being enabled by lack of clarity on the valuation of oxford nanopore for IPO. Those of us with patience and conviction (based on research) know what to do at this point - HOLD or BUY more since I think way oversold at this point and ONT contribution to future IP group NAV is now very much undervalued. I put a buy order in this morning but doesn't look like it will be filled (shareprice has started to bounce)