Member Info for danrh

@noix take a look at the presentation you shared at 43mins 55secs (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c7CQ6qPXvBI) - although the surgical community is convinced of the link between nasal de-colonisation and reduction in post-surgical infection rates, Destiny will be aiming to demonstrate unequivocally this link for XF-73 in Phase 3, in their surgery of choice (possible Breast Augmentation for easy patient recruitment, but to be decided with partner in all likelihood). This is the complete proof of concept that was not shown in phase 2 due to the powering of the study (too few patients). They did see very effective and rapid nasal decolonisation. See list of XF-73 Phase 2 secondary clinical outcomes at link below and note: "Number of Participants With Staphylococcal Post-operative Infections During the 30-day Period After Surgery (90 Days in the Case of Foreign Implant) ": https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT03915470?term=xf-73&rank=1&tab=table

Hello, I am not a regular poster to this board, but I do feel obliged to balance your ‘ramping’. I shared my insight on the telegram group when XF73 Phase 2 results were published - I was largely ignored and my opinions dismissed, during which time I sold most of my holding above 180p and have re-entered recently from 25p onwards. The main risk to the XF-73 program is that clinical proof of concept is still to be demonstrated for XF-73. They have demonstrated nasal clearance but have not demonstrated unequivocally the translation to a reduction in post-operative infection rates. The Phase 3 study design is therefore essential, it needs to be powered (statistically) to avoid an ambiguous outcome. It’s positive that Destiny have consulted with FDA on the Phase 3 study design. I’m quite confident that Destiny will strike a partnership and the value/ shareprice will be transformed, but your talk of a 10 figure acquisition in the near term horizon is deluded, and perhaps dishonest (depending on your intentions). Let’s hope we find a partner that sees it how you do, but I think they’ll be looking at it more from my perspective and we’ll see a classical deal with solid upfront payment, but with the big money backloaded for the reasons above…

P.S. do what you like with the view above, I’m just a prat so what do I care

I’m invested here and believe in the company, but I also understand the risk. The the way you go on, with little balance in your opinions makes me conclude you are not experienced in pharmaceuticals and don’t really know what you’re talking about. So maybe tone it down so you don’t persuade people to blindly follow you, without doing their own research

XxPro, I think a buyout is unlikely but not impossible pre-Phase 3 because the XF-73 data for secondary (and most important) clinical outcome (reduction in post-surgical infections) is not yet statistically proven (that's the point of the Phase 3). I think much more probable to see a classical deal structure, with the partner company being responsible and financially accountable for remaining Development & commercialisation of XF-73 (in post-surgical infection, and potential other indications) and Destiny take royalty stream with series of financial milestones en route to commercialisation......we shall see

Hi sajy, I agree with your summary, with one exception, no pharma is going to buy out XF-73 before Phase 3 proves the clinical outcomes. So I think we should expect a classical deal structure with upfront payment (should be $50-70M+) and Development milestone driven payments + a double digit royalty stream. This will be transformative for Destiny valuation.

Buy while you can, will soon be 250+. I have large holding in ONT and in Pacific Biosciences. Both technologies and companies are superb. I'm in for the long game but expect short term boost here from today : )

Excellent news, which means risk-adjusted value of NTCD-M3 increases significantly, even with contract still to be inked. Once the imminent deal is announced (Jan or Feb I guess) NTCD-M3 funding to commercial is sorted. Destiny will get milestone payments and hopefully an upfront payment (defined in the deal) and a royalty for all future US commercial sales. This will be an excellent outcome for Destiny with clear benefit for shareholders. I expect 50p+ by the end of the week, perhaps back above £1 by end of year. As the market adjusts price targets.

End of lock up period has ended, so it's a free market again for ONT! Markets getting hammered by Ukraine situation. Hard to call the bottom, but I guess could be sometime between today and 22nd March. 2021 results should be in line or better than expectations and 2022 revenue guidance should be strong. However, if compare marketcap to Pacbio, ONT shareprice could have a way to go down. I have my funds ready to Buy (for mid/long term hold) if drops to £2/share or below, which isn't impossible IMO

Hi all, still holding here. Been to busy to post. Today's RNS confirms what we knew - oversold/ undervalued. Great long term investment IMO

@freshmatt, indeed. I calculate IP group NAV to be £1.7bn/>1.6pps based on ONTs shareprice today! I've started buying IP group again. Good luck to all

Not good timing on your sells guys! Best to accumulate and hold long on this company. I think recent action could be linked to US retail investors getting in since forty day wait period for US citizens to participate in foreign IPOs (required by the 1933 Securities act.) is over

ONT are structured to avoid a hostile takeover so unlikely. Great news today though and prospects are ace

Hi Moorey, see ONT news this morning! IP group NAV is growing nicely, only thing that’s changed is sentiment. I’m expecting/ guessing that once buyback is over IP group will start to communicate what their NAV has grown to and shareprice will be back on its merry way upwards. I bought a load of ONT over last few weeks but still kept my core IPO holding as fundamentals are really excellent IMO

Strong buy for long term. I bought again today as part of steady accumulation. Mine wasn't the 100k trade at end of play I'm sad to say. Looks like bigger fish are building holdings also at these levels

Fdh- thanks for sharing. Just a note that ONT is absolutely not just a covid play, despite what you’ll read in the press. They’ll get sustained revenue from genomic surveillance of Covid as they do for other viruses (eg Ebola) but this is a small fraction of the markets they are in and going after, across clinical (medical) and non-clinical areas. Any part of our economy that using something living, is a potential market for ONT! Recommend to research a little further and then make your choice. I’ve been following for more than a decade and potential opportunity in genomics should not be underestimated. All in my opinion of of course. I’m semi-informed, as Biochemist working in Biopharma industry for 20 years….

Fastduckharry. Well played by ONT management to save that news until today (doubling of 2021 revenue guidance)! I’m slowly accumulating ONT but holding my IPO shares as clearly undervalued. They still hold 10.3% of ONT and so many other incredible companies.
Re. The scrip dividend, I received cash in June as hadn’t opted to auto reinvest. So i don’t believe it was a share issue so isn’t the case of issuing shares and then buying them back again! That’s my understanding anyway

Prospects here are amazing. One to accumulate and accumulate and accumulate. Well that’s what I’m doing anyway. Could do with a few more dips to buy! Not much chance of that after this mornings news!

Fastduckharry even if you take worse case scenario as you suggest, based on ONT IPO price (425pps) then IP group hard NAV is about £1.52bn/143pps so compliant with buyback terms. As an approach to anchor the shareprice to the NAV I think it’s smart and good for all shareholders, no?

Well I for one think IP management team has been very effective. They clearly anticipated outflow following nanopore IPO as investors flip to direct investment in ONT, so set up share buyback to counter it and to anchor shareprice to HardNAV. Nicely done IMO. Not many ‘investment trusts’ in as strong position as IP group

Fp- I am a believer. Have added but my average is 0.8 for long term so I’m not concerned.