Member Info for danrh

Looking forward to annual results tomorrow. Interesting to see how NAV is building and how open/bullish they can be about Oxford nanopore IPO and valuation

Good to see the telegraph article. IP group's 15% stake in ONT still under-the-radar for most retail investors I think. Also, I think only a few appreciate that genomic sequencing is becoming mainstream and that total addressable market is broad (many applications, across different sectors) and massive (e.g. $20bn TAM by 2025, for long-read whole genome sequencing in clinical diagnostics alone, which is only one of many applications). Per my posts below, IP group is a 'no brainer' investment at the moment. Exciting times ahead!

I think I worked out a few weeks ago, that based on last patient recruited and clinical study design, results could be ready to communicate anytime from late Feb depending on how long takes clinical teams to dot the i’s and cross t’s on analysis and documentation. Realistically don’t think we’ll hear until second half of March. I’m fully loaded, waiting patiently. Btw, IMO positive results will give us a good tick up but really exciting stuff happens when partnership and/or acquisition is announced

And don’t take my work for it re nanopore IPO- see here: https://www.barrons.com/amp/articles/how-oxford-nanopores-gene-sequencing-is-helping-the-global-battle-against-covid-its-now-considering-an-ipo-51611570281

UP UP UP for the NAV and shareprice here. I’m expecting a kick up from annual report in coming weeks. I’ve done my due diligence on IP group holdings and the NAV is gonna shoot in 2021 IMO. Not least because highly likely Oxford nanopore will float this year. Check out what has happened to valuation of their closest competitor - Pacific Bioscience - in recent months and Pacb has fewer applications for their tech. If ONT floats on nasdaq or joint listing, would expect $7-$10bn valuation minimum, of which IP group hold 15%. And that’s just one of their many exciting holdings. I can only see upside here. I’m continuing to add here when I can, as I have been since 0.8s. Good luck to all

I love it when you find a company like this. Research the hell out of it. Take a position while it's under-the-radar. Sit back and enjoy. Not risk free by any means, but as good an investment as you'll find on AIM in my opinion

Ha! Yes indeed. Since when did the Telegraph know anything about stock picking! I’ve made my own assessment based on Ceres intellectual property and know how, their business model, total addressable market, strategic partners and macroeconomic factors. All indicate to me that Ceres is a stellar 3-5yr investment. Couldn’t care less about day to day share price fluctuations or what someone at the Telegraph thinks after 30mins of research!

Objective journalism from the telegraph (!?), the same newspaper who published this article 10 days ago:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/shares/questor-buy-british-clean-energy-firm-arm-holdings-generation/amp/

P.S. no Ceres fundamentals have changed it's just a market tremble because of reddit funds and hedge fund shenanigans - see https://www.standard.co.uk/business/ftse-falls-expected-as-plunging-wall-street-hits-european-stocks-reditt-apple-b906119.html

Have been watching Ceres for a while since divested from IP group....waiting to buy. Today was the day. Happy to join the club :)

For those of you new to Destiny who don't know how pharma and drug development works, let me simplify. If pending (due Q1 2021) Ph2b clinical results for XF-73 are positive and accessible market (>$1bn US alone) stands up to due diligence, then upside here is SEVERAL MULTIPLES of current company market cap. There are a number of reasons why Destiny is de-risked compared to other small biotechs/pharms. Read through the chat history to learn more....

Completely agree with Gambit’s informative posts. Destiny sp looks to me like it’s at inflection point of the classic start up company ‘J curve’. Increase in company valuation following positive XF-73 Ph2b results will be immediate and I expect over last few weeks we’ve seen more institutions taking positions here, and expect this to continue. This company will definitely be on the radar for pharma companies looking to partner/acquire post XF-73 Ph2b results and increasingly seems to be on the radar of finance community who are taking positions. Proactive investor presentation on Thurs will help publicise further. I expect exec team will want to publicise more and more to drive valuation up over coming weeks as will benefit partnering discussions.

...but still the beginning IMO

Thanks David for the info., milestone payments will come from CMS as XF-73 goes into clinical studies in China. Timing of clinical studies (and associated milestones) in China could be alongside US Phase 3 study or subsequent to (I'd expect it to be alongside, running 6-9month behind US study). Of course Phase 3 studies can only be initiated following successful Ph2b (we await news this quarter) and there is normally a 12month+ gap for preparations between Ph2b completion and Ph3 start. My prediction is that IF Ph2b outcomes in prevention of post-surgical staph infections (including MRSA) are met, then Destiny will be acquired. Value of that acquisition depends on many things including total accessible market, currently estimated at $1bn in US alone (China deal is done but manufacturing margin (per product sold) could be profitable, and Europe and other markets still on the table), 2) IP and exclusivity (time that peak sales can be realised before generic competition), 3) Cost of goods for main assets (since drives profitability) and 4) adjustments based on remaining risks (e.g. Ph3 probability of success, market access and reimbursement etc). I don't have enough info. to estimate a net present value for Destiny (post successful XF-73 Ph2b) but I'd be surprised if it was under $500m/370m and that could be a very over-conservative estimate.

PS. I think this article explains why Destiny is so undervalued. Many of the unique considerations for antibiotic valuations (vs other medicines) not apply to XF platform and their biggest target indication (prevention of post-surgical Staphylococcal infections) but I don’t think the market understands that yet.... https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02418-x

Thanks Gambit, I like the fox/squirrel analogy! Some points to check I’ve been looking into recently re. China market:
- China partnership is already in place with CMS (https://www.destinypharma.com/2017/12/01/regional-development-and-commercialisation-agreement-finalised-with-china-medical-system-holdings-limited/).
- What’s relevant right now is what milestone payments do Destiny get from CMS en route to approval and what margin do they get (per product sold) once launched?
This is important info. for a future buyer (e.g Merck) and company valuation
- I also found out that Destiny will be at this weeks [virtual] JP Morgan Healthcare conference which is reassuring because it’s THE meeting for partnering in biotech/pharma

If anyone has more info. on the CMS/China deal then much appreciated

Ha, fair enough. Perhaps I should have chosen my wording more carefully. I think I've been participating in too many US boards where people are more direct. You are right of course that every individual investment strategy is different. I am not a trader, I invest in a company based on research and fundamentals and try to develop a logical exit point and price. For Destiny the outcome will be binary, successful XF-73 Ph2b (proof of efficacy studies) = v large multiples of current share price. Unsuccessful XF-73 Ph2b = 50-75% loss in company value. Trading is one thing, but I can't understand why investors would exit before an inflection point. If the risk is too great for someone then they probably shouldn't have invested in the first place.

PS. the writing is on the wall from CBO announcement (below). Destiny are getting set up for XF-73/platform acquisition or full company acquisition. I know (from experience working in pharma) that big pharm companies do not need or want partnerships for assets such as XF-73 where they have the capabilities to complete Ph3 and commercialisation. They just want the asset (post proof-of-concept) that they then integrate into their global commercial organisations to maximise value.

For Destiny successful Ph2b = acquisition target. It's a 'sellers' marker at the moment for new drug acquisitions, fierce competition = more value for Destiny shareholders.

"Neil Clark, Chief Executive Officer of Destiny Pharma, said: "I am very pleased to welcome Stephanie to Destiny Pharma. She brings a wealth of experience and a proven track record in business development and deal making having completed a range of transactions including in the anti-infectives space. Her expertise will be invaluable to Destiny Pharma as we look to maximise the value of our two late-stage clinical assets and in building a world leading anti-infection company."

@Gambit, I agree the notion of people selling before Ph2b results for their XF platform is totally absurd! These people are clueless. We are at a point in time for Destiny that is decades in the making, what a crazy time to exit. As for the valuation of 330p (post successful Ph2b), show me a company that has an asset with potential market value of >$1bn (US market only) that is valued at, or acquired for, anything less than $500m/£380m? You won't find one. So IMO 330p is woefully low price target if Ph2b endpoints are met. I'd expect at least double this (700p) and if acquired by big pharma (likely) then we can expect 10-20x current market cap (potentially more!) if estimated peak sales for XF-73 stand up to due diligence. It's very exciting and all dependent on Ph2b success, which is not a given of course. The above, just my opinion (you can hold me to it in 12 months time).

Indeed! Definitely under the radar. Meeting efficacy endpoints in Ph2b is not a given, but current shareprice has absolutely none of the potential market for XF73 baked in! Positive efficacy results in Q1 would lead to big pharma acquisition, in region of 10-20x current mcap. Hence why new CBO appointed. All in my (relatively informed) opinion of course