Member Info for danl90

@keep - (maybe you have me filtered) but you shouldn't fear competition

Two men selling ice cream on the beach story

100%

The city knows Topshop. They will have shopped there and have sons and daughters who shop there. But M&A is the quickest way to create value (multiple arbitrage - god's greatest invention)

So that's why we can pay such an amount and it be "worth it"

@moose nothing in the above is ramping - sorry buddy

The point though is to try and view boo more like amazon than like JD. It shouldn't matter to boo what it sells it all runs through the same model
- test and repeat
- make it fast
- make it cheap (relative to the brand but we tweaked KM to be cheaper)
- sell all online via the fully owned distribution network
- engage and retain customers through apps and social media
- lock in customers with next day delivery (when you've paid that £10 it does stop you looking elsewhere - why getting this for US is KEY!)

So from the above excluding the test and repeat and making it part you're pretty much stating Amazon business model. Amazon don't care what you buy. No person in Amazon likely even sees it

So that's why topshop is valuable as it just drops right into the model without a penny of extra cost

You have £1000 Karen Millen coats on your floor? Wow

The point is to see boo as a platform not a clothing retailer. That’s why you’re paying x40

If you don’t agree this is over valued and you should be short

@keep

https://www.boohooplc.com/group/our-vision-and-strategy

Because Topshop/ topman fall in to the boohoo group with virtually no extra cost (marketing costs are modelled into revenue - possible bump to get it going)

So the point is topshop is pure earning accretion. Cash is worthless to us

Also this proves we can do what we say (KM was second thing mentioned at investor pres) we can buy high st brands and take them online. We did it with KM (£1000 coats) it’s easy for investors to see why we can do this with topshop

JD just did a huge US deal which investors didn’t like. In my view they won’t agree or like another big deal so soon especially as topshop stores don’t naturally fit in JD (in my view)

Shein? Well are people now taking them serious? You should. Boo does have competitors. In 3-5 years the days of just destroy the high street will be done. It will be tougher then

I don’t think Shein will get this tbh as admins will want a deal now and in cash. Will Shein have £300m on its balance sheet? Maybe. Will the PE funds lend to it? Yeah likely. But if the PEs want to do the deal as debt then Shein is weeks/ months away from completing as even if Shein is ready banks can be slow and Shein has no track record

Boo’s deal is cash and cash now. MK can walk down (he can go on one of the days he drives the designs from manchester to leicester and write a cheque that will cash in a day)

The world is still uncertain. Vaccine hasn’t happened worldwide yet. Cash today talks. As long as we are near the £300m I think admins will go with boo

Come on boo!

@slippers the above is based on Calcs for the next 12 months so I haven’t said anything to make my previous views untrue

All I’m saying is we all have this £200m number as that was what some person on a new article said the “brand was worth” but inside of boohoo it can be worth a lot more (multiple arbitrage)

Long term? I think the boohoo brand needs to be reinvigorated (on YouTube the reviews don’t look good) and more and more brands means more and more advertising cost. There’s potential to cannibalise. I don’t think this would mean sell btw if you’re a long term holder. Just that I think it will stretch management bandwidth

But if boo bid £300m for this then no issue in my book

Walking that further if we get that £10m to grow at the 25% we are aiming for mid-term growth then in 12 months it’s worth £500m

Even more exciting is investors view this as part of the equity story (scalable platforms that can considerate brands) they may pump out p/e. If management say this up mid-growth then the p/e can pump

So even based on a £10m earnings number you can quickly see it’s insanely accretive to us as shareholders

But you need to look at it in the context of boohoo

We trade on a P/e of x40. So even if this adds only £10m of earnings it is worth £400m inside of boohoo

So at that basis we instantly make £100m of value

Multiple arbitrage. It’s god greatest invention

Why would the Gov block a bid on a retail asset? It’s not a national security threat

Also after Brexit and our “we can do whatever deals we like” message shutting the door on China doesn’t really fit?

It’s not necessarily overpaying at that price

I feel oddly vindicated. For weeks I got told “what’s this Shein rubbish” etc

Now it looks like Shein are a real contender for Topshop

Maybe you’ll all be posting boohoo’s next tik tok campaign if it’s a success too!

You’re all a bit like Utd or City. Absolute goggles

Next out and Shein favourite at £300m for Topshop and Topman

I’m not sure Shein are serious or whether this is a great way to get some free advertising

Yeah fully agree. Copper at 8000 a tonne as China has bought copper like no one ever imagined (looking today there is only 93k of copper in LME warehouses. That’s insane it was 180k a month or two back). I think when you start to factor in green cars and whatever Biden decides to build you see the squeeze driving prices. The beauty of glen is they own the copper in the floor but also “market” the raw material so if copper or oil whatever is higher in one part of the world they move it from one place to the other (for those who don’t know the oil price or whatever is just an aggregate but actually the price is a mess)

Technicals? Nice if you day trade but the best technical for this is last time copper was 8000 glen was over £3.50. The broken world means marketing profits are fat. Also technicals assume things like profit warnings, M&A or reinstating divis don’t happen. Conversely to your point of needing a catalyst technicals and charts ignore these?

Your absolutely right it’s bonkers! But that’s the way they play it. As though all this copper for electric cars just fell from the sky already purified and cast in shape

But that’s my thought here green is overvalued (or high depending on your view and hold period) so eventually the money will be squeezed into “sort of” ESG and given glen digs most metals involved with green and is tailing it’s coal and apparently can be carbon reduced by 2050 it’s the “ESG” miner in my view

And while it’s cheap I’ll take home 16p a year to wait. My average is around 160p too so 10% yield

But there we go splice let me know when you’ve taken 5% of the equity ha

GLENCORE

- Low debt or manageable debt (cash surplus is good) - Glen gets beat about debt but it's misunderstood the trading debt is fully secured on assets. FCF will boom with copper at 8,000/ tonne and coal assets to run down and FCF frm here put into other assets so capex for future is lower. Also just disposed or a mine for $1.5b
- High top line growth 25%+ - a lot lower value so topline growth of that rate isn't needed but copper at 8000
- Covid neutral stock (covid gainer is better) - copper at 8000 and Biden is about to spend $2TRILLION on building a green economy. Green needs copper (an electric car has x3 as much as a regular car) so where you think copper is going. Other metals also feed the green items of the future
- Cannot be loss making - nope
- Special situation causing mis-pricing (holds down prices but has no impact on the core business ie. scandal) - yeah it digs coal so ESG funds won't touch it. Management started a net zero plan in Dec-20 updates on this might draw ESG. New CEO could spin off coal
- Strong management - old guard
- Upcoming catalyst / event to cause re-rating - restore divi in Feb. Was 16p before Covid so 6% yield at today's price. Also room for specials

Also add to this with the world "falling out" (brexit, US and China) the trading arm will be making money hand over fist

Bag up as you'll see strong gains here and a very comfy divi

Influencer and senior marketing aren’t M&A. They are marketing jobs so is digital

Are you thinking the M stands for marketing?

PPC has nothing to do with corporate acquisitions

@splice it doesn’t really work like that

In those examples it means the bank is running a process, so there will be a competitive process. A corporate dev team work organically growing relationships. You can then do deal outside of a competitive process and also learn a lot more about a business operationally vs a IM which is a fancy marketing document with 4 - 5 pages of financials at the back

There is a reason all highly acquisitive teams have these teams. Boohoo night I’m just saying I can’t find anything

I don’t think I was saying let’s list out the names and mock or anything but I’m saying I can’t find any sight of one

I think that my point though. We have the cash but how actively is this being deployed or is it all opportunistic

My feeling...the latter

Does boohoo have an active department for this? I tried looking on LinkedIn & google and can’t find anything

Hut have a team of around 5 - 10 people

If we have no one I think that shows we aren’t actually running our M&A ambition seriously. Are we really just chancing it?