Member Info for danl90

PE won't do a deal without management. KKR tried that with a tobacco business and no one has looked to do it since

It's partly the reason why Matt THG golden share is a mute point other than if amazon tried to buy it as any other buyer needs him on board so he'd not kick the share into action anyway as he'd be onside (softbank deal being a case in point)

I'm giving you words from the Boohoo ceo so is he talking twaddle? Maybe it's worrying that a guy talking twaddle is running the business

Here's the quote for you

"Guidance and Outlook

For the year ending 28 February 2022, the Group now expects net sales growth to be 12% to 14%, compared to previous guidance of 20% to 25% growth. This reflects our expectation that the factors impacting our performance in the Period persist through the remainder of the financial year, and recent developments surrounding the Omicron variant could pose further demand uncertainty and elevated returns rates particularly in January and February"

So management expect it to get worse

@rag there was no mention today from asos re own brands except the two nordstrom stores and topshop

I'd agree with Phat that in reality the brands are worth more than the business. If you had the PLT brand on the asos infrastructure it would be amazing for all

I don't think PE is a buyer as PE model a certain rate of return and struture (use of debt and loan notes) which you couldn't add to any structure atm as the business needs to invest in large chunks of capex

Boohoo isn't quite in the same boat at THG or GymShark when they took investment as it's further down the maturity profile and isn't showing the +40% growth rate that would make you feel comfortable with covering loan notes and capex

Never say never of course but just off the bat it doesn't fit the PE structure you'd need to get the minimum 20% IRR demanded by funds and pay capex

If asos goes premium and gets a re-rate from that they could have a go but the asos management team are nerds. They need the new chairman to be a BSD yank!

Ok SCB I’ll make this dead easy for you

Management give forecasts. They tell investors what to expect. When you’re 3 months from the end and into Dec management will use that run rate (and they say this on the call)

Growth for the YTD at end of Nov is 16%

In the RNS it says full year expectation is between 12-14% for full year

So to get 12-14% you have to post slower growth again to get there

Also per £ Q4 is a lower quarter so it’s got to be a pretty sharp drop to drag by what management say could be 400bps for full year

This is management giving you guidance. They are tell you what to expect from what they see every day

Hope that’s clear

Marty - going out is what Asos say to mean dresses! So both sold more and driven by dresses just one of them got a tonne back- simple

No i don't care about the likes my point was that there were also other who didn't realise you can work out the forecast for current trading from the last RNS

That was all

Just shows a number of people who lack taht competence. Nothing more than that

It could be but it's a percentage (say 10% for illustration)

sell 100 dress you get back 10
Sell 1000 dresses get back 100

it's a percenatge and using a percentage is how it's modelled if you listen to ceo and cfo

They have said on the call that US return rates are normal with pre-covid

Mattyboy you're just not getting this! Going-out is what asos calls dresses

In UK asos had a high trading due to dress and got as a percentage a lot less back

The "normal" period is pre-covid. Understand that and you'll start to understand the numbers and what both management teams are telling you

both were below "normal" returns during covid. Asos is now back at pre covid levels of return and boohoo is above

I never said it WAS a quality issue i said it's off how one saw huge returns on the same type of dresses when the other didn't

Your point below (being a single customer) conflicts with what the Boohoo ceo saw (see quote below) he told you it's dress mix

Asos also telling you they sold going - out dresses "UK delivered growth ahead of expectations at +13%, supported by strong peak performance and demand for going out wear"

So both sold higher revenue due to dresses but one of them got a load back

SO why?

Question is just on now

I hold both

Why you so upset?

You asked how to read an RNS and I help you. What’s making you so upset? As Asos customers returned less clothes? That’s making you be mean to people on the internet? Wow

Here’s the quote for you (sorry it’s 7% for pre covid)

“ Net sales impacted by returns rates that are 12.5 percentage points higher than last year, and 7 percentage points higher than pre-pandemic levels driven by an exceptionally high dress mix”

This is from boohoo RNS

Sold loads of dresses and got back 7% more than we would have against pre-covid normal

For boohoo return rate to “normalise” it would have to decrease 7%

Covid is still here but lock down isn’t. Even boohoo are telling you that the clothing mix has shifted from casual to party dress (so they are the boohoo’s ceo words not mine)

Boohoo said “we sold loads of party dresses but omnicrom meant we got sent them back for US and U.K. above levels that they saw pre covid” and then they give the 12% figure which is a reference back to return rates pre covid ie the NORMAL period

Asos saying we sold loads of party dresses and got back the same amount as we would have if this was pre covid

So why did one get a tonne more dresses back than the other?

Both sold dresses
Both sold in U.K. and US
Both had omnicron impacting consumers

So why did Asos customers keep their dress and boohoo’a return

I replied at 22:18 it’s here below

“ danl90
Wed 22:18
Posts: 2,532
Price: 111.55
@SCB can you share the email

Also on current trading you can work this out as full year guidance was lower than growth rate at end of Q3 which means it’s slowing again in Q4”

But none the less I wrote it again above. The point worrying for you is that it’s a very easy and basic thing to do and on the next RNS you should be doing this

Rather than be offended why not be grateful for having learnt

I never “lied” as even if I didn’t reply last night (which I did) it’s in the thread anyway!

Fine maxage. You’re happy to have that view. My point that’s relevant for boohoo is the returns point

I don’t see why anyone is being defensive it’s presented clearly

Asos was good in US too which beats -14% but it will be interesting to hear the profile as boohoo said it was a quarter of two halves

So normalised to what then? The metric is “pre covid rates of return” as covid was lower (same for boohoo)

Asos has never had higher returns. In the last update they were “lower and trending back to normal”

Now they are “normalised” back to the pre-covid normal

Asos is saying they sold party dresses and never saw elevated returns (for U.K. and US) so why did one sell party dresses and not get returns and the other did?

They sold the same type of clothing

It’s worrying that SCB has put that and 3 people have liked it

That makes you all aware there are factually 4 idiots on the board who can’t read the basics of an RNS

Who do we think the 4 are?

My point is just it’s interesting to contrast the two

One has had a huge returns issues in U.K. and US and the other has so far seen a less muted issue

Just comparing to peers like any sound investor

It’s a good thing for Asos. But it’s makes you question why boohoo saw that level of returns. Is it a quality thing? Type of customer? Questions unanswered

Yes but Asos in the last update had a return rate that was LOWER than normal as the trend was still stay in clothes

What they are saying here is it has come up again but it’s inline with pre-covid

Your point misses the context which is relevant for Asos that returns rates were lower that “normal” (being pre-covid) in last quarter

If they had even been elevated then that’s not known and a pure guess

@mattyboy but you’re posting it as fact not expectation

At SCB no but what you use is the full year guidance number given in the RNS and the overall growth rate is less than achieved through to Q3 therefore mathematically it is telling you a slower growth rate again in Q4

Very basic of reading an RNS tbh

Boohoo were to the point? You forgetting what was said in September?

@phat apart from ratner the jewellery guy no ceo comes out and says “it’s rubbish what we sell”

None the less common sense compares the two and one shout “heavy party dress returns” and the other says “no returns were normal”

@mattyboy I think you’re I’ll, thick or have blinkers on normalised return rates means they are inline with levels pre-covid

Normalised is the correct tense word in the sentence

@wolf sorry not following? A diff thread?

That debt repayment is really impressive!

Good sales figures too

But as I said bring omni channel is expensive! Extra £30m of costs. Seems you do need those data analysts etc

Good luck though all