Member Info for DanielPlainview1

Tried to find a broker to let me short this stock last month, but sadly no one would take my money.

Q1 Cash $24.9 million, Working Capital $11 million

Q2 Cash $13.5 million, Working Capital XXX?

The prepayment loan starting to make sense

192 comes with alot of baggage, you have to pay Altamesas old bills they left of 25M$ and you have to honor 9 contracts they made with local compaines. It's an asset with alot of enironmental problems and natives that have been agressive in the past.

That being said. Peru have activated an environment fund to start clean up some of the oil spills at block 192, they will hire natives to help with this and should keep them occupied until the end of 2026. The workprogram for Block 192 will the first 4 years only be workovers and it's first year 5 you have to start to drill, so not that much capex. PetroPeru also guarantees sales of oil through the ONP, so if that is offline you can force majeure.

Block 192 is the key to restart Perus oil industry. You need 192 online to have ONP online, and if ONP is online blocks 39/67 64 and Ecuador block 86 are made possible + increased sales from Block 8 and 95 ofc

And if anyone could make block 192 work it's Petrotal

To be voted on next month, 5 to 1 or 10 to 1.

Could be in preperation before a US listing

Yeah we don't give that much value to what PetroPeru says :)

Expecting Petrotal to keep the old strategy: Sell as much as they can to Iquitos, keep selling 20K to Manaus and sell the rest via ONP. Should still be some 5-10K via ONP when the new CFP comes online, depending on how much more they can sell to Iquitos when production at Block 131 goes up.

https://www.reuters.com/es/negocio/HA2FCATSGVJWDIKBZ4MFESG7WA-2025-05-06/

Reuters also have an article out about ONP PetroPeru and Petrotal, reading that one and the one from Forbes I think the plan is to first sign a framwork agreement(Where to sell the oil, how long until payment etc) and after that they will do a detail agreement (rates volumes etc)

ONP deal eom?

https://forbes.pe/economia-y-finanzas/2025-05-06/refineria-de-talara-reanudara-su-actividad-este-viernes-tras-suspension-por-oleajes

Even if oil where to avg 60$ for the last 3 quarters of the year, Petrotal would still get a +65$ avg for 2025 as they have 40% of production hedge + we had "high" oil price in Q1.

10$ oil less than guided will be a hit on FCF but some of it is compensated by higher than guided production, and they have 100M$ cash just for situations like this.

And what Capex would you even cut?

Maintenance and erosion capex: you can't cut

Block 131 project: 26,5M$ for 4000 bbl are among the cheepest barrels you can find so you are not cutting that

1 Well at Bretana in Q4: You could cut this one, but do you want to when you will have 32K CPF capacity by then?

10 new cellars at Bretana in Q4: You could push this to 2026, and they need new permits for this so it could get pushed to 2026 whether we like it or not. But it's not that much capex.

"We have to hold alot of cash as we have so much costs in Q1, with taxes, capex and erosion"

Q1 result:

Cash flat

Net receivable + 30M$

Classic Petrotal

C) I don't know if its getting to 4k or even to get 4k more, I think it's the latter. But it really doesen't matter, what matters is the cost planed to get there 26.5M$ which would make then very cheep barrels even if its 4000 or 4600 barrels.

d) Manolo talked in the Q&A about what volume we can expect from ONP, "800-1000 or even more". 3 years of negotiations, have to cancel old contract, get a new contract that is much worse for PetroPeru where they lose a free creditline, all for 1000 bbls? I think it will be much higher.

e) Block 64 deadline is April 2, so after this date we should know if they submitted a bid or not.

2022 Petrotal started with dividend and buybacks with a total cost per year of about 60M$.

Every year there after they do their budget so it will generate 60M$ in Free Cashflow.

They also said that they will extra fcf/cash in top-up dividend.

So now Petrotals shareprice is more or less a function of their FCF.

Production have almost 2x in 3 years, but FCF have stayed they same so SP is the same.

This is the best answer I can come up with.

So if we want higher SP we need higher FCF, and for this to happen we need production and/or oilprice to be over guidence. And oilprice moves FCF much more than production.

Nothing in the oilreserve PM, but new one line in the new presentation

"Independent estimates allocated ~28% of Bretaña of OOIP at YE24 (659 MMBbl) to the VS1 unit; nominal volumes

were included in 3P reserves, pending additional production testing. "

PetroPeru agreed to pick up the bills Altamesa left behind, so atlest now the locals are happy(less angry).

Will they do a new tender where the winner is the one the offers the most % and is always a Altamesa like company?

Or will PetroPeru try something new, like direct negotiation or even sell the block? Time will tell.

This new version also have a new legend map that was not in the one from last week. Not sure if it is supposed to be there as it have some new info that usually drops in the oilreserves PM. Looks like they will go for 40 wells now and some of them will be in the VA1.

XCVII and XCVIII could be gamechangers. XCVIII is an extension of Block 131 and XCVII used to be called Block 200.

Cepsa used to have Block 200 and it could hold large amounts of oiland also gas, it's prospective resources are today at 142MMbl.

Cepsa gave up on Block 200 as they could not make a deal with the natives.

If anyone could get along with natives it's Petrotal.

Petrotal and PetroPerus numbers differ alot, and if they have not swung alot the other way in Q4 I say we are well over 17500

Petrotal PetroPeru

Q1 18518 18 284

Q2 18290 17 949

Q3 15203 14 906

Block 131 is a gamechanger. They get the new rig in April, so mb we can get our first well online a few months after that. 6M$ in potential yearly savings from diluent + higher sales volumes to Iquitos.

Been trying to find out how much more they could sell to Iquitos if they can get production up in Block 131, but with no luck.

Iquitos refinery have a capacity of 12k/day

Corry

They do change to wording from May to fall presentation as you say

May

"Total Buybacks $9.2 million returned"

Sep

"Buybacks: $7 million in shares purchased"

Mb they count the value as number of shares repurchased X todays SP, would explane the declining number. Wierd way to count but would add up.

I will ask IR next time I talk to them, will let you know what they say.

Tony Tony Tony

You should have taken you former boss advise

As you do make up stuff.

My former boss used to say "Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by neglect, ignorance or incompetence."

So maybe I was wrong in saying you are making up stuff when it's more likely you just don't understand and get things mixed up.

PSU are issued and then vested, you can't add together both when they are issued and vested

PSUs can't collect dividend so PSU holders are compensated with additional PSUs equal to the value of the dividends paid on a per unit basis on the record date.

And you don't have to go over all RNSs from the year as it's all added together in the reporting package.

2024 they have issued 6.3M shares that will vest over 3 years, 2.3M are for Manolo.

You did get the annualized buybacks number of 6.8M right, but that is a larger number than 6.3M. So buybacks are larger than PSUs issued even at this low rate of buybacks.

The buybacks now at the low rate of 30K shares per day is 20% higher than what they issue in bonus shares, no need to make up stuff just because you are angry with the falling SP.

I love buybacks and I think it was a mistake to set basedividend as high as they did, if they had set it at 0.01$ they would have money over to max out buybacks at 40M shares per year and the dividend would still be good. That said, if the goal is to get MC to 2B than buybacks are not the way as it does not improve MC.

What I would like to see now

1. Insiders buying share, show us smt

2. Tell market some good news. Ebitda range for this year is 200-240M, but it will land at 255M. They could have hiked that range to 220-250 months ago and would be a strong signal to the market.

IR guy David did a good job, ty for bringing this to our attention.

So what can we guess from todays webcast? Petrotal won't go for the Talara lots, but are very keen on Block 64. Also don't think I have ever heard Manolo this positive on ONP.