RE: 20-22p5 Dec 2025 13:03
Investment case In the immediate term, Europa has stated that it expects to announce a binding farm-out of Equatorial Guinea licence EG-08 by the end of the year. Non-binding Heads of Terms were announced in early August, with an unnamed “major energy company”, which would, if consummated, allow for drilling on the permit towards the end of 2026. While there remain risks to the transaction, Europa’s current 1.8p share price implies an enterprise value of just £16m, and we do not believe that the likely value of the farm-in (including an expected full carry on an estimated US$53m, gross, exploration well) is close to being priced in. We expect the shares to react strongly on confirmation of the deal, with the announcement also likely to outline the operational catalysts expected in the run-up to the well. While there will undoubtedly be volatility, we expect the shares to trade northwards as these milestones are met, with the well spudding expected in 4Q next year.