REMINDER: Our user survey closes on Friday, please submit your responses here.
Novacyt is no longer a covid-19 play for exposure. It was the correct position during 2020, not in 2021. Its future lies in getting out of covid-19 testing and reaching into the broader infectious diseases diagnostics market, pick a small niche and execute, simple. Whether people believe it or not shareholders on forums are small fish in the sea with sharks and have no effect on the daily share price movement. The market cap is around £600m, does anyonehere have atleast 2% of that, circa £12m? I guess not. Shareholders on these forums have more control over (or try too) compaines under £50m market, no chance with market caps nearing £1bn. In 2021 the sharks (buy side) are reducing thier exposure to covid-19 testing companies and placing bets elesewhere. People quoting Morning Novacyt ownership increasing in Januray 2021 but fail to show the funds/ big hands reduced exposure x2. The ignorance is wild sometimes on these forums. As new information comes that challenges ones outlook they should reflect and proceed with caution. I have more reason this will reach £5.20 in the short term and gradually increase within 12-24 months.
The vaccines are here and rolling out fast and that is the narrative the big sharks (buy side) are moving capital to ie. Post Covid-19 recovery. Sure there are hiccups and there will continue in hiccupps in the delivery of vaccines but, remeber they are "hiccups" and temporary in nature. The USA has vaccinated more people vs those that have had covid-19. Cases are going down faster than ever globally. Truly amazing, belief in humanity to rise to challenges always wins. This narrative is only going to get more momentum in 2021. Follow at your own peril.
Novacyt to me now is a longer-term play for gaining exposure to the new level of diagnostics that will be required in the future. With an attractive valuation, near term m&a, entering new markets and new fields with the view of holding Novacyt for many years. BUT all depends on management execution, the oppurtunity is there, the question now is do they have the insight and desire to go and get it, me thinks yes but will happen in longer term not overight.
Bye. Jungle Rules.
Hi all,
Could anyone guide or explain to me why there is a huge different in share price between the LSE and WSE after currency conversion. LSE the company is quoted at 3.68p and when converted from PLN to GBP it is 18p. This is s huge range. I know the company did a `offering of shares` but that was in November of 2020 and shouldn't that of taken place in the main LSE market already? Hence the term `placing` that implies that agreements of the numbers of shares have been made to the main market and would happen at the date specified? Really curious as to why this missing pricing exists.
Thanks in advance
The stocks of all US listed diagnostic companies are green, yes green, from a range of 2% all the way up to 10%. Qiagen, Quidel, Thermo-Fisher, Hologic, Abbott etc are all gren. These names are showing relative strength in comparison to other sectors and broader market which is down 2%. Buy relative strength and sell weakness. Annoying that the share price dropped, but it is no-doubt going up in the 1 - 3 month time frame. We know Novacyt are working with the DHSC and phase two which has been tailored for them is going to be initiated soon, plus the Microbiology Framework will no doubt bring a smile to holders. We as shareholders need to see the `proof of pudding` in terms of major long-term contracts, when we do see this in the very, very near future those who sold will buy back higher. Buy strength sell weakness, US Biotech companies are all green on a whole red day for the SPX, which shows this whole industry is attracting demand hence higher stock prices.
"Thermo Fisher's bid for Mesa Biotech and its handheld, molecular-based Accula tests also follows last year's $12.5 billion offer for diagnostic supplier Qiagen, which collapsed last August (2020) as the pandemic continues to drive demand for COVID-19 screening"
Thermo Fisher tried to bid for Qiagen in 2020, Qiagen's board without hesitation agreed but shareholders voted against it. Fisher wanted to buy at Qiagen at $11.5bln, current mcap of Qiagen is $12.43bln. Maybe Thermo didn't believe testing would continue to atleast end 2021 and set a signficant new base line into the future, and as result put a small bid with little premium for future earings and walked away. Seeing Qiagen's latest earnings guidance must be bitter. Qiagen is a global provide of molecular diagnostics and testing, it has its noise in nearly every country and goverment healthcare system. Well, Mesa clearly doesn't have this reach and has similarities to a 'start-up' and will take Thermo Fisher a long time to imbed Mesa into thier supply chain. Are Thermo Fisher still interested in taking over a diagnostic company to fill the hole they have in thier business? The evidence of this is of them trying to bid for Qiagen and without doubt shows they don't have as much a global product offering and reach in there business as they would like, hence lets buy Qiagen and launch their products in out network.
Aquiring diagnostic suppliers is a real thing it seems. This agressive behaviour by Thermo fisher in trying take over med & large diagnostic companies is quite reassuring.
If Covid-19 is here to stay to atleast end 2021, goverments will try to secure supplies well into for the foreseable future. The likes of Thermo Fisher and others after realising this, will more than ever be hunting in 2021 for a global molecular company that they could provide guidance to and grow expodentially. Big premiums will be paid after the mistake they made with Qiagen.
Hi Porky,
The winners of the "Pathology and Point of Care’"£20 Billion Tender have already been annouced.
Although this is highly speculative but, I wouldn't be suprised at all if the mcap of Novacyt gets to low to medium mid cap fairly quickly upto £10b. But why? The winners of the National Microbiology Framework to be announced in early February. A competitor, Sourebio International have said they have a "potential" of securing Lot 4 though two RNS's in November and January.
At peak proccesed upto 4,000 tests per day with thier agreement with DHSC. In comparison, Novacyt under their agreement supplied 288,000 tests per week. Yes, Sourebio is providing lab services to process the covid-19 kits, whereas Novacyt is supplying the equipment, kits, reagents etc and not involved processing of them itself. But why is Sourcebio only processing such a small amount? Novacyt have greater ability to supply more testing volumes, equipment etc than any another "UK based and operated diagnostic company". There is no doubt that large multi-corps like roche, quidel, qiagen etc will have the capacity that the PHE & DHSC would require, but Novacyt could still get a big slice. Why? Because as we know relying on a small number of large suppliers results in a large amount of concentrated risk. If one major supplier gets delayed and they control a high % of underlying testing volumes, it goes sour really fast. Also, why the latest recruitment drive and compare that to other UK listed firms? What do you see?
One can expect that Novacyt's pie of the framework will be substianal relative to the current value.
In over 1 year into this covid-19 mess of all the UK listed covid beneficiaries, Novacyt has achieved the highest contract values. Whereas others are still developing and testing thier technologies. This is supported by Novacyt many times stating that they have capacity to supply beyond the agreed volumes immediately. PHE & DHSC would be aware of this and factor that in when apprasing the tenders recieved.
With potential tenders being awarded in coming February, Novacyt is well poistioned than any other UK listed firm. Values can be in excess of millions to single digit in billions, Novacyt sure does have possibility of mid cap fairly quickly.
Key assumptions for short term mid-cap upto £5b+:
NPT Phase 2 - £450m to £850m
National Microbiology Framework - anywhere from low £100m to high £1bn +
Single product contracts - single £100m ie. LFT, home testing, private testing contracts etc.
B2HS2L
Interesting intrepration of the RNS. But on the future RNS's or phase 2 release I beg to differ. Anything which affects a companies underlying operations ie. source of revenue, management, claims, disputes etc. and in this case huge reliance on DHSC would be carefully communicated. "Radio silence"is what us shareholders feel like is happening but in reality is something different to the company internally. Note the contract terms again, the authority and supplier can be in discussions for no more than 30 days. November and December would be an extremely busy period for both parties to disscus future arrangements as there would be many interputions externally. That leaves the whole of January to disscuss any arrangements if be. Also, recall investor relations email response to a shareholder mentioning "materal update" from the DHSC will be provided in either a RNS with trading update or seperately.
I would take any broker research note with a pinch of salt and always do your homework. Why? Because there is a confilt of interest? But how? The research house don't give a f*** where the stock price is and where it goes. They have a client who pays them, keep them happy and they get paid. But as an investor you have 100% interest in where the stock prices goes. They get paid fees to promote the stock, if the stock falls 50% or goes 50% up they still get paid their original fee. A research note could present the company as overvalued or undervalued, its upto you to decide what the value of a company is.
As of news flow the company has direct control over in all time horizons, its upto the market to believe it or not. The same way the company informed shareholders of the award of the contracts it would also inform shareholders of the expiry. A due dilligent company would know the in's and out's of a contract they entered into. The contract does stipulate the no less than 1 months notice needs to given (fact). No notice given, no phase two and the company would issuse an RNS stating this.The contract is a sizeable portion of revenue that was why the company issued an RNS stating its value and signficance in during the second half; its a two way game. But why have the company not said anything? Maybe because they are in the 30 day disscusion period. If they did give an RNS saying they are in discussions in December with the DHSC for phase 2, could you imagine the affect on the share price eventhough nothing at that point was finalised. Pretty sure the DHSC would not approve of the company publicy boosting or saying stuff that would fuel speculation. Also, would give a pretty bad presentation of the company if this did happen. Also, the contract is legally binding soo procedures need to be followed or would result in disputes or arbtriation (fact).
Also has anyone happened to look at the contract terms of the DHSC contract which is due to expire on the 28th of January?
Clause (15) describes that the authority shall be entitled to extend the term and shall give the supplier no less than 1 months written notice before the expiry of the contract. The way I understand this clause is that if the DHSC didn't want to extend the contract ie. phase two; Novacyt would have known in December 2020 that they the DHSC have no intention of extending the contract term and DHSC cannot legally extended the contract as the one months notice would have expired. If this was the case, Novacyt would be obliged to inform shareholders in December as it a large % of total revenue, stating that the DHSC has not given us notice and the contract expires on the 28th. As this as not happened, it provides subtle evidence that the DHSC has in fact given notice to the company and is discussing the new terms ie. specification.
What views do others have on this?
Updated for TYPO:
H1 Novacyt reported £66m to June 2020 end. Going by the Quidel Q4 revenue guidance and Numis report, Q3 end of September of Novacyt should at least be double Q2 revenue. So, at the minimum Novacyt should report £110-120m in Q3 and Q4 should be in the range of £180-200m. This does not account for NHS, DHSC or Unicef contracts as they were awarded after H1 end. So, without these three the revenue range for FY end December 2020 could be around be between £540m - £600m, but including them could lift the revenue range from £753m - £1b. 2021 could be similar in that, the DHSC contract could be valued over £600m - £850m as per the Numis report, Novacyt being awarded Lots on the latest UK Gov contracts such as the LFT etc. which would make revenues for FY2021 exceed £1.5b comfortably.
Quidel Corporation is a major manufacturer and distributer of rapid diagnostic testing solutions in the USA, delivering solutions globally with a market cap of $9billion.
It reported Q4 results on 07/01/2020 and stated revenue in the range $808m - $810m from the previous quarter (Q3) of $476m, nearly a 100% increase. Quidel and Novacyt FY`s end both in December. The key aspect here is the doubling of revenue so late into the covid-19 pandemic and vaccines now available, it show resilience.
Now onto Novacyt. The Numis research report stated that 90% of revenue came from Q2 alone, £25m in June.
H1 Novacyt reported £66m to June 2020 end. Going by the Quidel Q4 revenue guidance and Numis report, Q3 end of September of Novacyt should at least be double Q3 revenue. So, at the minimum Novacyt should report £110-120m in Q3 and Q4 should be in the range of £180-200m. This does not account for NHS, DHSC or Unicef contracts as they were awarded after H1 end. So, without these three the revenue range for FY end December 2020 could be around be between £540m - £600m. 2021 could be similar in that, the DHSC contract could be valued over £600m - £850m as per the Numis report, Novacyt being awarded Lots on the latest UK Gov contracts such as the LFT etc. which would make revenues for FY2021 exceed £1b comfortably.
https://www.wbhealth.gov.in/uploaded_files/tender/STM-86.pdf
Hi guys and women, I`m doing very early research on this company and sector but can seem to find the definition of the unit of production which is; mtV as I`m not familiar with it at the minute. I can see it in all the reports, could somebody shed some light of this for me? Thank You in advance.