Member Info for Danger_Man

Repeat after me, it's in Navitas' and the lawyers' hands.

To repeat was has already been said several times. This is in the hands of Navitas, not Sam and the board, and the share price is underwritten by the award (technically 3 fold), so it only needs to be sold at 30-ish pence in the pound. We all know this, so why these conversations again?

Citizen, thanks for the more nuanced answer. Good to learn. I'm busying reading the results. Fingers crossed that the majority of the warrants are exercised. The board seem optimistic.

But according to Moody we have 14000 share holders (a lot having been brought into the fold with the purchase of DES.) The vast majority of the shares are in retail investors hands. Let me just clarify that. 5% in a bank or exercising the warrants for a 40% instant profit (at the moment of typing) and then you can stick the money back in the bank? I don't claim to know it all, but what am I missing?

@NigelHaemoglobin. Good to see you're still posting on here; I take this as a positive sign! While you are about, just a little thank you. I'd also read your posts on JSE which, after a bit of research, looked a very good punt. Managed to get in in two tranches at 26.5 and 28 and looking to hold for a while.

This has been touched upon before, but not in any great depth. I was wondering what, if any, difference it would make if Milei becomes Argentine president. Diana Mondino (who would probably foreign minister under Milei) has repeated said that Islanders will have "their rights respected". Given just how indoctrinated Argentines are over the Falklands I am assuming this is about as far Mondino can go, but I am trying to read between the lines and coming up with several different reasons to this position. The hopefully side of me being this will soften the risk of funding for Sea Lion; I see the political risk as the main stumbling block. I also note with interest there seems to be a growing acceptance that O&G industry is part of the route out of perpetual economic crisis and the industry in Argentina has been growing steadily of late.

Would be pleased to hear other other people's thoughts on the matter.

Weird. Two different similar negative comments are written within one minute of each other late on Saturday evening.

What I wonder is if the deliberate and excessive negative chat actually does push the share price down. Having looked at the history of those that engage in the practice they must think it does. Posts have been written recently when the share price has been as low as 6 pence and as high as the mid-teens. Same person, same comments and presumably for the same purpose.

Ironically, the success or failure of RKH is primarily in the hands of Navitas, a bunch of lawyers and those at ICSID. Worth remembering when the usual suspects go on their little campaigns.

Taken from the 2023 AGM report by yeast-is-rising.

The next question was about Chanan Wolf and in what effect he was involved in maintaining relations with the UK government, since this was mentioned by Navitas. Sam said this was a matter for Navitas, said there was some lobbying going on but this was quite difficult. Wolf oversees the project, is involved, came to the Falkland Islands and loves the project. FIG can make their own decisions but at some point the jigsaw puzzle has to be put together and Whitehall has to sign off. FIG is good at that and it would be very, very difficult for the UK government not to do so, because it would be direct rule and would go against the right of self determination of the FI, which is the main argument in the UN against the Argentinian claim on the islands.

Trouble being LTT, this does need signed off by HMG. The get out of jail free card for the government being the Falkland Islands are self governing. An attempt to block an application from FIG would be seen as direct rule.

I thought that quite a reasonable post by LaticRules albeit repetitive. If FID, or other events, are just round the corner indicating Navitas are moving Sea Lion forward then why hasn't the share price responded? This is different to the award, the outcome of which was binary and a secret. I would presume that nothing concrete has quite occurred, yet. If something is going to happen it will be soon with an obvious need to get it wrapped up before the general election.

@baldmark, interesting point about US sentiment concerning Sea Lion getting the green light. Argentine involvement in BRICS must be relevant. This is not something that gets mentioned much on this board. What's your opinion on the matter?

@Decidedlyaverage Can you put some figures on "huge cash injection" in terms of dilution? The last raise was about 10% and the current suare price is still up over 50% on that offer.

Trouble is @Bigred7 that if people did care they wouldn't be incessantly posting all day in the first place. It's also dishonest for others to say something like, "brokers have done more damage so what's the problem?" They are independent of each other and brokers don't constantly post on forums.

If you were underwater on any given share would you keep posting your negative view point? Of course not, because it's illogical to add to the negative sentiment which will then further your losses.

@Decidedleaverage. Does this mean you've sold your entire holding?

@Chessmaster thanks for your theories. They at least give me evidenced based reasoning which I can then read up on myself. Dare I say, quite a rare thing on a chat board such as this. As anyone who spends any length of time on lse (or wherever) will note it's often the case that poster who do add something get drown and/or hounded out. I, for one, enjoy your posts and they give me something to think about even if it's not what I always want to hear. Stick with it. Best, D_M.

Oh yes he did, oh no he didn't. I clearly remember it and I can tell you when and where I was. It was September and the flow test just came in positive. I'd returned from a little jolly in Barcelona with a then new girlfriend and my trading account was positive to the tune of a figure that was quite a surprise. Garbled confidently predicted 600-700 pence and I thought, that would be nice.

My personal faviourite was 600 - 700 pence by an alias Garbled. It was 2010 mind you. Still, if we get close to even 1/3 the lower estimate they'll be many very happy shareholders. In fact it reminds me of the days where the share price was 250-ish and you got shot down in flames for suggesting it would go below 200.

@ChessMaster321 Thanks for the detailed post and, yes, those 'indicators' would implicitly mean FID was a goer and the share price would shift accordingly. I'm sure I'm not alone, having been here for what seems like eternity, hoping this will come good. As you say, we're going to get news indicating the direction of travel in the near term. I mentioned in my original post that the current market capital is underwritten by just selling the award. Am I being too optimistic at approximately at 28 pence in the pound for the award if/when the annulment is sorted?

There are two binary events that will shift this.

First when we actually look like we'll receive something from this award whether it be in full or sold to a third party. Given it was stated we have three offers already on the table I am comfortable that most if not all of the current share price is underwritten by this albeit taking time at zero cost which it obviously isn't.

The second is FID then progression towards first oil. If FID occurs then it is de-risked to a good degree so why not hold on (or at least part of your stake)?

People who quote target figures always seem to quote exact numbers, say £1 or £2/share. I presume the wise get out just before at 98/198 pence.