Member Info for DanBrown83

Were in a lot better place operationally than where we were last year or even 6 months ago, just a lot lower SP

im not invested but hope all goes well for you guys

in terms of BlackBat question, do companies spend $100mn and expect them to have a product worth a $100mn, no, they expect to spend $100mn and make it worth $200mn so they make $100mn profit,

In terms of the rise in valuation, the current Oil Price and Forecasts are now positive, rising massively in the last 18 months, the Field is virtually worth double what it was when oil was around $40

In terms of a major, they will be thinking BPC is a cheap punt on that oil, its a difficult drill and there is no infrastructure, but potentially its one of the worlds largest untapped oil plays, if a major can think they can make a few $ a barrel then its definitely worth a punt by them - lets face it, for a major, $500mn is pocket change

This will open at whatever the placing price is at i reckon - whether that be higher or lower than the suspension price

She has a week i think to get an RNS out and you are quite right she needs to declare trades while she is still on BOD
I am unsure if she needs to thereafter.
There are only a few i suspect that have that many shares they can sell, hence me thinking its her

Anyway, SP holding firm with that sell so all is good,

There not listed as far as i know
it seems to me that shes the only one of the BOD that has sold and now she has 'retired' - we don't know the full story but she had circa 12m shares left in her own name, maybe her retirement to pursue other interests has meant she wants to realise some funds - buy a nice holiday home on a beach in Mauritius, there could be loads of reasons she previously sold (and possibly is selling) but none of the others are so it would seem its her circumstances and not a wider concern of the company

Does anyone believe it is Dr Oyungerel Janchiv selling
she sold a lot last year
she sold some earlier this year
she has just retired from BOD

Actually - wrong exchange rate - thought it looked wrong
Net Assets £10m
after Bonuses £8m (mainly cash)
but got ongoing operational losses

maybe undervalued slightly - maybe 4p is reasonable

still no ongoing plan from company

Finally get a true overview of how the sale effected the Financial Position,
Net Assets of £5.5m (taking in todays Exchange rate) but they have just paid out £1.1m in bonuses
so i give current position circa £4.4m and the BOD have stated that it is going to continue making an operating loss

current SP probably about right but balance sheet reserves will reduce and they still don't seem to have a plan on what to do next

I'm only wanting a few sidetracks to prove the flows - nothing more

Fully understand the bulk of the field needs to be new, better and more costly wells for the Long Term, but i'm talking a short term prove up and nothing more at this stage

the honest response is the Gas in UD2 was a failure, they tried and tried without sidetrack which has wasted time and money
Remember the gas was spread between MTSAREKHEVI (UD2) (5.8TCF) and Taribani (3.2TCF) and Taribani Gas is flowing very well (especially as it a sideshow.
The Market is pricing the Gas as zero in my opinion

With the oil looking amazing, with the associated Gas, Taribani should be the main focus, the cashflow de-risks the company more in the next few years than proving an old soviet well can get gas out at commercial levels.

If they sidetrack UD2 next year all fine and well as an exploration well, but i think we have to understand that all the old Soviet Wells are going to have issues, so maybe we need to look at sidetracking a few more of the others there to get a better feel but without building a gas facility to process this, its not worth anything.

In the Interview, Costs per oil well recovered in 8 months and there after each well can make $4million profit a year.
If we can get 5 or 6 wells done next year, costs recovered, add in the 3 wells we are testing and our JV Well, 2020 could see Profits on P&L been circa $30m

If you can hold that long, you will see a great return

My thoughts are the SP end of last year and most of this has been on hype, reality has kicked in but what you have is a company that is on the verge of making millions and millions of profit in the next couple of years

T39 has a lot of additional zones to unlock, plus there is the JV Well in November
All positive on the Oil

Gas can wait until next year for a sidetrack but primary concern is to get money in from sales and no more dilution

$17.5bn at 1% is $175mn - i would say this is fair value price for Taribani given its current development stage
even taking into account 0.5% value of oil in ground is significantly undervalued
if we hit 10,000 bopd
$227,500,000 in revenue based on $65 a barrell
Net Profit will be $140,000,000 - i have based the figures on $5 Opex per barrell and assumed admin expenses of $20 per barrel and a 350 day working year taking into account any typical working delays

10k bopd wasnt scheduled until 2022 on presentation
need a revised forecast from company i think on the oil taking into account the new information - albeith this will have to wait until extended testing is complete

got to assume that they would want to do that considering we got 500bopd initially on this zone alone, whatever the cost to drill deeper would seem that could be recovered
10k bopd in couple of years is higher than i have on my forecasts

it looks like we had a big buy in the system that got swapped for a big sell

Actually the last two placings are dependant on next placing price
$810,000 of funds to 'keep the lights on'
i think they need at least $1m + interest so i reckon the next placing price will cover circa $2m of funding

They will wait until after 24th October (1 year after they did that placing at 0.12p (why pay 5 times as much when an RTO can be done at a fraction of the price later this year)

The main news is to see how big the next placing is an the conversion price as thats the price for the last conversion

Lind and Darius totally in Driving Seat here

Its a Gusher

I accept the position

what a joke - so they are paying loads of bonuses for staff to sell a complete failure for 35p
i think this wipes a lot of savings made
look forward to seeing accounts and notes to get a clearer picture of the sale but this massively reduces shareholders funds

Results wont say much - the Oil testing and production only started right at the back end of the half year - so very doubtful if much in additional revenue will be posted - one train load on June 25th will not show cash but may be in the receivables somewhere
what we really need is a clear Operational Update and an update on what the next set of works is and how long will current production on each well (when we actually have final test results) will be down for any upgrades - especially if they are wanting to go deeper
we have in Taribani $7.2bn worth of Oil + $18bn worth of Gas to monetise
we have initial flow rates from 3 new wells at over 1000bopd (albeit we need to factor some decline)
we will have the ability to generate $20m+ revenue plus a new JV well to be drilled later this year
for a £40m Market Cap that is purely too many positives for that Market Cap