Tuppence worth3 Jan 2026 16:50
Further to previous notes, I am very much of the opinion that Scotty’s comment when interviewed by David Lin (that he would accept 30c a share) was fully orchestrated. The aim of course would to entice a bidder, with the ultimate goal of drawing (forcing) other parties to show their hand.
Also, DV’s comment regarding the Mick McMullen interview with Mine of Money (7th Nov) was with the same aim.
TAM has been a big surprise for all with pretty decent grades at .43%CuEq and more importantly at near surface (stripping ratio of 0.63:1). ‘Projects that sustain both low strip ratios and solid grades (e.g., ~0.4–0.6% Cu+) tend to be the most economically resilient’.
Once it became clear that TAM was more than viable, the first bid landed in short order. It is important to note that the three offers from JCC came in very quick succession (23rd Nov / 28th Nov / 12th Dec). It is clear that they wanted to move fast, taking advantage of the Christmas shutdown which puts others on the backfoot (in small part) but clearly shows that JCC want this deal done now (and of course for good reason which few PI’s seem to acknowledge!!).
Why now? DFS on the way with revised mine plan (inc. sub-level caving / shared TSF with TAM / increased metal prices etc, etc) / improved geopolitics / clear company strategy / copper deficit / CIPA (due imminently!) / permit submission (soon to be) off & running / Alpala portal development / TAM north & west extensions / Potential funding from export banks / doors open for streaming deal for TAM / Porvenir update etc, etc.
Lot’s of folk have focused their time criticising company directors past & present for the position we are in (accepting the bid of 28p). What they fail to mention is the fact that all along it was / is the goal to get a bid tabled. I have no doubt that the BOD would have preferred a starting bid of 30p+, but unfortunately with BHP approving hands have been tied.
I do not buy into the theory that the CAPEX becomes prohibitive now that TAM is in the mix. If this was the case why is Lundin Mining so profitable and Solaris SP doing well. TAM open pit is the game changer, which has sparked a major to show their hand.
It is of course clear that BHP are not interested (unless they are looking at a JV with 3rd party). We do not know their Co strategy at this time which seems not to include Ecuador.
This in no way suggests that other majors may not looking to invest in this great asset.
This is not over yet.
GLA.
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